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美國會否變成獨裁政體?(二)/ Will the United States Become an Autocracy? (Part 2)
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特朗普當選不久便遇到第一個挫折,他提名的司法部長人選蓋茨因未能獲得共和黨國會參議員的支持而主動撤回候選人提名。表面上看這是美國制度對特朗普一次成功制衡;可是那邊廂,美國最高法院似乎對特朗普妥協了。自2023年被刑事起訴以來,圍繞着特朗普的一系列法律糾紛在美國憲政史上創造了一連串的「歷史首次」。例如2024 年7 月1 日,美國最高法院公布了一項有關「總統刑事豁免權」的歷史性判決,裁定總統在執行憲法職權時有「絕對」刑事免罪權,任期內不能追究。由此可見,特朗普成功掌握了參眾兩院和保守派主導的美國最高法院。
特朗普還有世界首富馬斯克的支持,此外亦有報道指一些歐洲國家元首不得不向特朗普俯首稱臣,反映特朗普將掌握極大的權勢和影響力。
根據美國憲法,總統只能擔任兩屆。為了延續自身的政治影響力,特朗普於是次回朝後便開始着手委任一些較年輕的「特朗普主義」追隨者擔任重要的政府職位。比方說,共和黨全國委員會共同主席賴拉和候任副總統萬斯。兩位被看好在特朗普2.0 政府中有更上一層樓的發展,甚至可能在2028 年接棒問鼎大位,繼承特朗普的政治遺產。由此可見,特朗普在商場或政壇都有親信密切合作。
這些現象讓人擔心美國是否會走向強人政治,類似於羅馬帝國的歷史。眾所周知,美國在立國之初是一個共和國,但若特朗普能延續強人政治,美國可能會走向歷史轉折點,類似羅馬帝國由民主共和國轉變為獨裁專制政權。有羅馬帝國奠基者之稱的凱撒大帝憑藉赫赫戰功於公元前49 年實行獨裁統治。雖然其後被元老院成員暗殺,但其強人政治傳承至他的甥孫屋大維,將羅馬從共和國轉變為帝國。
如今,美國出現了特朗普這樣的強人,如果他完成第二任期並讓接班人繼承他的政策,那美國會否沿着羅馬的軌迹,由共和國變成獨裁政體?
Will the United States Become an Autocracy? (Part 2)
Shortly after Trump's election, he encountered his first setback. His nominee for Attorney General, Gates, voluntarily withdrew his candidacy due to a lack of support from Republican members of Congress. On the surface, this may seem like a successful check on Trump by the American system; however, on the other hand, the U.S. Supreme Court seems to have compromised with Trump. Since being criminally indicted in 2023, a series of legal disputes surrounding Trump has created a series of "historical firsts" in American constitutional history. For example, on July 1, 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court announced a historic ruling on "presidential criminal immunity," stating that the president has an "absolute" criminal immunity while performing constitutional duties and cannot be prosecuted during their term. This indicates that Trump has successfully gained control over both houses of Congress and the conservative-dominated U.S. Supreme Court.
Trump also has the support of the world's richest person, Musk, and there are reports that some European heads of state have had to bow to Trump, reflecting Trump's immense power and influence.
According to the U.S. Constitution, a president can only serve two terms. In order to continue his political influence, Trump has started appointing younger "Trumpist" followers to key government positions after his second term. For example, the co-chair of the Republican National Committee, Laila, and the vice president-elect, Vance. Both are seen as having a promising future in the Trump 2.0 government, and they may even vie for the presidency in 2028, inheriting Trump's political legacy. This shows that Trump has close collaborators in both the business world and the political arena.
These phenomena raise concerns about whether the United States is heading towards authoritarianism, similar to the history of the Roman Empire. It is well known that the United States was founded as a republic, but if Trump can continue authoritarian rule, the U.S. may reach a historical turning point, similar to the Roman Empire's transition from a democratic republic to a dictatorial regime. Julius Caesar, known as one of the founders of the Roman Empire, established dictatorial rule in 49 BC based on his great military achievements. Although he was later assassinated by members of the Senate, his authoritarian rule was passed on to his grandnephew, Augustus, transforming Rome from a republic to an empire.
Today, the United States has a strongman like Trump. If he completes a second term and passes on his policies to his successor, will the U.S. follow the path of Rome, transitioning from a republic to an autocracy?
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