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小羅拔甘迺迪的勝算如何？/ What are Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s chances?
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由於特朗普及拜登二人作為總統的表現未能讓選民滿意，呼籲票投第三方的呼聲在本屆總統選舉中尤為高漲。雖然多數獨立候選人在民調上的支持度都及不上特、拜二人，但外界普遍認為來自甘迺迪家族的小羅拔甘迺迪（Robert Kennedy Jr.）可能對選舉的最終結果產生重要影響。
甘迺迪家族在美國政壇名聲顯赫，多個家族成員都曾出任政府要職。小羅拔甘迺迪是已故總統甘迺迪的侄子，父親則是前司法部部長及前參議員，本應是競選總統的熱門人選。但民主黨希望將選票導向拜登，以抗衡特朗普，因此未有給予甘迺迪「祝福」。
但我認為，縱使甘迺迪出選挑戰拜登，亦未必會嚴重分割民主黨內的票源。皆因甘迺迪本人的政治主張十分激進，極左及極右的議題都有涉足，與民主黨中間偏左的立場相距甚遠，相信無法取得大部分民主黨人的支持。但甘迺迪的新競選搭檔或能協助爭取更多提名，提高他「入閘」的機會。
據美國政經網站Politico報道，甘迺迪早前宣布科技律師及企業家妮可沙娜罕（Nicole Shanahan）為他的競選搭檔。他稱讚對方為傑出的律師、科學家、技術專家及堅強的母親。
沙娜罕是中美混血兒及移民後代，亦是Google其中一名創辦人Sergey Brin的前妻。兩人於2022年離婚時，沙娜罕按照結婚時簽署的婚前協議，分得約10億美元財產。沙娜罕與甘迺迪同為律師，在環保政策及反疫苗陰謀論的立場相近，她亦主張利用創新科技去打擊政府機構的腐敗行為。
不難看出，甘迺迪和沙娜罕所代表的是民主黨內以「矽谷精英」為主的精英階層利益。雖然沙娜罕的雄厚財力或能協助甘迺迪取得更多提名，但相信無助他當選總統。不過，他們的部分激進主張或可吸引共和、民主兩黨的邊緣化選民支持，分割特、拜二人的票源。
What are Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s chances?
As the performances of both Trump and Biden as president have failed to satisfy voters, there are increasingly loud calls this election for voting third-party. While most independent candidates still lag Trump and Biden in polls, most observers believe Robert F. Kennedy Jr., from the famed Kennedy family, could significantly impact the final election result.
The Kennedy family has a prominent reputation in American politics, with many family members having held high government positions. RFK Jr. is the nephew of former president John F. Kennedy, and his father was a former Attorney General and senator, making him a natural candidate for president. However, the Democratic Party hoped to direct votes toward Biden to counter Trump, so did not give RFK Jr. their "blessing."
However, I believe even if RFK Jr. challenged Biden, it would unlikely severely split the Democratic vote base. This is because RFK Jr.'s own political stances are quite radical, touching on both far-left and far-right issues, far from the Democratic Party's center-left position, and he likely cannot gain support from most Democrats. But RFK Jr.'s new running mate could help attract more nominations and increase his chances of "making the cut."
According to a report by the American political and economic website Politico, RFK Jr. recently announced technology lawyer and entrepreneur Nicole Shanahan as his running mate. He praised her as an outstanding lawyer, scientist, tech expert and strong mother.
Shanahan is of Chinese-American descent and an immigrant offspring. She is also the former wife of Google co-founder Sergey Brin. When they divorced in 2022, Shanahan got around $1 billion in assets according to their prenuptial agreement. Shanahan and RFK Jr. share a similar stance as lawyers on environmental policy and anti-vaccine conspiracy theories. She also advocates using innovative technology to combat corruption in government agencies.
It's not difficult to see that RFK Jr. and Shanahan represent the interests of the elite class in the Democratic Party comprising mainly of "Silicon Valley elites." While Shanahan's formidable wealth could help RFK Jr. get more nominations, it's unlikely to help him win the presidency. However, some of their radical stances may attract support from marginalized voters of both Republican and Democratic parties, splitting votes from Trump and Biden.
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由於特朗普及拜登二人作為總統的表現未能讓選民滿意，呼籲票投第三方的呼聲在本屆總統選舉中尤為高漲。雖然多數獨立候選人在民調上的支持度都及不上特、拜二人，但外界普遍認為來自甘迺迪家族的小羅拔甘迺迪（Robert Kennedy Jr.）可能對選舉的最終結果產生重要影響。
甘迺迪家族在美國政壇名聲顯赫，多個家族成員都曾出任政府要職。小羅拔甘迺迪是已故總統甘迺迪的侄子，父親則是前司法部部長及前參議員，本應是競選總統的熱門人選。但民主黨希望將選票導向拜登，以抗衡特朗普，因此未有給予甘迺迪「祝福」。
但我認為，縱使甘迺迪出選挑戰拜登，亦未必會嚴重分割民主黨內的票源。皆因甘迺迪本人的政治主張十分激進，極左及極右的議題都有涉足，與民主黨中間偏左的立場相距甚遠，相信無法取得大部分民主黨人的支持。但甘迺迪的新競選搭檔或能協助爭取更多提名，提高他「入閘」的機會。
據美國政經網站Politico報道，甘迺迪早前宣布科技律師及企業家妮可沙娜罕（Nicole Shanahan）為他的競選搭檔。他稱讚對方為傑出的律師、科學家、技術專家及堅強的母親。
沙娜罕是中美混血兒及移民後代，亦是Google其中一名創辦人Sergey Brin的前妻。兩人於2022年離婚時，沙娜罕按照結婚時簽署的婚前協議，分得約10億美元財產。沙娜罕與甘迺迪同為律師，在環保政策及反疫苗陰謀論的立場相近，她亦主張利用創新科技去打擊政府機構的腐敗行為。
不難看出，甘迺迪和沙娜罕所代表的是民主黨內以「矽谷精英」為主的精英階層利益。雖然沙娜罕的雄厚財力或能協助甘迺迪取得更多提名，但相信無助他當選總統。不過，他們的部分激進主張或可吸引共和、民主兩黨的邊緣化選民支持，分割特、拜二人的票源。
What are Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s chances?
As the performances of both Trump and Biden as president have failed to satisfy voters, there are increasingly loud calls this election for voting third-party. While most independent candidates still lag Trump and Biden in polls, most observers believe Robert F. Kennedy Jr., from the famed Kennedy family, could significantly impact the final election result.
The Kennedy family has a prominent reputation in American politics, with many family members having held high government positions. RFK Jr. is the nephew of former president John F. Kennedy, and his father was a former Attorney General and senator, making him a natural candidate for president. However, the Democratic Party hoped to direct votes toward Biden to counter Trump, so did not give RFK Jr. their "blessing."
However, I believe even if RFK Jr. challenged Biden, it would unlikely severely split the Democratic vote base. This is because RFK Jr.'s own political stances are quite radical, touching on both far-left and far-right issues, far from the Democratic Party's center-left position, and he likely cannot gain support from most Democrats. But RFK Jr.'s new running mate could help attract more nominations and increase his chances of "making the cut."
According to a report by the American political and economic website Politico, RFK Jr. recently announced technology lawyer and entrepreneur Nicole Shanahan as his running mate. He praised her as an outstanding lawyer, scientist, tech expert and strong mother.
Shanahan is of Chinese-American descent and an immigrant offspring. She is also the former wife of Google co-founder Sergey Brin. When they divorced in 2022, Shanahan got around $1 billion in assets according to their prenuptial agreement. Shanahan and RFK Jr. share a similar stance as lawyers on environmental policy and anti-vaccine conspiracy theories. She also advocates using innovative technology to combat corruption in government agencies.
It's not difficult to see that RFK Jr. and Shanahan represent the interests of the elite class in the Democratic Party comprising mainly of "Silicon Valley elites." While Shanahan's formidable wealth could help RFK Jr. get more nominations, it's unlikely to help him win the presidency. However, some of their radical stances may attract support from marginalized voters of both Republican and Democratic parties, splitting votes from Trump and Biden.
新一屆美國總統選舉逐漸白熱化，當地出現了一系列前所未見的怪誕現象。
先是過往一直尋求兩黨合作的中間派政治組織「無標籤」（No Labels）宣布，希望甄選合適候選人出戰11 月的大選；本屬民主黨的政治世家甘迺迪家族的成員小羅拔甘迺迪（Robert Kennedy Jr.）罕有拒絕服從黨內初選結果，堅持以獨立候選人身分競選總統；最近更有一名德州男子將自己改名「任何人」（Literally Anybody Else）後在各州收集簽名提名，試圖以獨立候選人身分出選。
被問及出選原因時，三者不約而同表示不滿意特朗普及拜登兩人的表現，對共和、民主兩黨未能派出更好的候選人感到失望。其實第三黨／獨立候選人在總統選舉的勝算極微，但這次大選有這麼多獨立候選人出現，我認為反映美國民間普遍對兩黨壟斷政壇感到不滿。
除此以外，這次大選或將罕有地出現候選人競選資金短缺的情况。由於特朗普官司纏身，加上其他普通法司法管轄區的「敗訴者支付原則」（loser pays principle）並不適用於美國司法系統，有媒體透露特朗普需要挪用競選資金去支付一系列官司所衍生的法律費用。
為避免財務危機繼續擴大，特朗普奇招盡出。早前，他在紐約因民事欺詐案敗訴，被判罰款4.54 億美元。就此，特朗普立即上訴試圖推翻判決並向支持者請求現金援助，更將旗下社交媒體平台Truth Social 上市，意圖籌集更多資金。奈何運營不善，其Trump Media&Technology Group 掛牌上市不到一星期股價就下跌超過20%，令特朗普倒賠10 億美元。雖然他最後說服法庭將上訴保證金的金額降至1.75 億美元，但若特朗普最終敗訴，相信會對後續選情造成重大影響。
特朗普團隊現時的財政狀况捉襟見肘；相反，對手拜登團隊早前靠着兩位前總統背書，籌得超過2600萬競選資金。特朗普團隊的財政危機會否讓拜登有機可圖，後來居上，至今仍是未知之數。
特朗普和拜登二人在今年美國大選「重賽」已是板上釘釘的事。雖然有民調結果顯示，特朗普目前的民望領先拜登，但更多美國民眾認為兩人都不討喜。
美國民調網站538（Five Thirty Eight）所收集的資料顯示，特朗普現時的支持度介乎於43% 至53%；拜登的支持度則在38% 至47% 徘徊；特朗普的支持度最高只拋離拜登6 個百分點。這意味着特拜二人誰能勝選將再一次由寥寥數個搖擺州份（Swing States）的選舉結果決定。
熟悉美國選舉制度的讀者應該知道，不公正選區劃分（gerry mandering）是美國選舉制度中積壓已久的亂象之一。共和、民主兩黨都會在執政的州份重劃選區，以確保能在選舉中取得絕對優勢。久而久之，不公正選區劃分使得共和、民主兩黨得以將絕大部分州份打造成各自的票倉。
美國的總統選舉並非一人一票直選制度，而是先選出選舉人團（Electoral College），再由選舉人團代表本州人民投票選出總統的間接選舉制度。除了緬因和內布拉斯加兩個州外，其他州份都實行「贏家通吃制」（the winner-takes- all system），候選人只要在該州勝選，就能獲得該州所有的選舉人票。
由於有穩定的票源，共和、民主兩黨通常在選前已對各自候選人所得選舉人票票數有粗略的估算，於是只需在各個搖擺州份進行重點競選活動，就能大幅提高勝率。
雖然選舉人理應按照所屬州份的民意投票，但間中亦會有選舉人不顧選民意願，倒戈投票給自己心儀的候選人。2016 年的總統選舉，特朗普就因為多個州份出現「叛逆選舉人」才得以勝選總統。
今屆大選選情難料，雖然特朗普現時民調領先，但最後會否因為「叛逆選舉人」的出現而敗選仍然是未知之數。