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鼓勵生育 不要空談「有仔趁嫩生」/ Encouraging does not equal interfering, create a conducive environmen
文章
2023 年 11 月 1 日
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行政長官李家超上周三（10月25日）宣讀了3個半小時的施政報告，當中涵蓋多個政策範疇，並接納了新民黨至少15項建議，反映行政長官有願意聆聽和廣於接納的氣度。本篇集中討論有關人口政策、鼓勵生育的內容。
香港出生率低、人口老化是不爭事實。2018年至今，香港的出生率由1.08跌至0.701。正如施政報告第113段提到，「本港夫婦平均子女數目下降至2022年的0.9名新低點。同時，香港是全球最長壽的地區之一，65歲及以上長者佔全港人口比例，將在未來十年內由兩成攀升至近三分之一。」
鼓勵不等於干預 締造有利環境
今年2月8日的立法會大會，勞福局局長孫玉菡回答新民黨容海恩議員的口頭質詢時，說「……生兒育女是家庭的重要決定，政府會推出各項措施，為有意生育的人士提供更好的支援，但不宜過分干預」，我並不認同，鼓勵並不等於干預。
猶幸現在行政長官察知社會有實際需要，因此施政報告以〈鼓勵生育，締造有利育兒環境〉為篇，指出「政府必須有政策導向，鼓勵生育」，我認為方向正確。其中，很高興行政長官接納了新民黨於2022年起提出的建議，向父或母為香港永久性居民的新生嬰兒發放2萬元獎勵金。市民大可把2萬元當成是「大利市」，皆大歡喜，反映特區政府重視生育，而不是說市民會貪圖這2萬元便立即生、生、生。
此外，我贊成推出「家有初生優先配屋計劃」和「家有初生優先選樓計劃」，讓家有新生嬰幼兒的家庭優先上樓（公屋）、選樓（居屋），期望有需要的家庭能受惠。
應對人口老化方面，除了優化各項安老服務，很欣慰行政長官接納新民黨建議，成立「銀髮經濟顧問小組」，研究銀髮經濟的發展潛力。新民黨一直主張，長者不是負累，很多長者充滿活力又具消費力，他們是社會資源，我期望這個小組認真檢視長者群體的消費行為及需求，並提出切實可行的建議。
輔助生育增名額扣稅 屬好開始
回說鼓勵生育，新民黨最早提出，為使用雪卵等輔助生育科技的女性提供5萬元資助，鼓勵有需要的女性作更靈活的生育及家庭計劃。喜見今次施政報告終有涉獵這範疇，認同社會有此需要，把接受體外受精治療服務的公營名額，由每年1,100個，增加六成至1,800個；同時增設輔助生育稅項扣除，我認為是好的開始，期望特區政府會繼續提出鼓勵運用輔助生育科技的措施。
不過，我對於醫務衞生局局長盧寵茂教授多次公開發言，指市民對輔助生育工具有錯誤觀念：「覺得雪個卵將來生完全無問題」，指市民「以為雪卵生仔很簡單」，又說「從醫療角度上說，30歲前同40歲後生完全兩回事」，還高聲呼籲「有仔趁嫩生！」我並不苟同。
女性遲生育 惟實際處境遭漠視
誠然，純粹從醫學角度來說，誰不知道女性在年輕身體好的時候生育最理想，可是這個說法完全漠視了香港現今的社會實況及女性面對的實際處境。
我們來讓數據說話，根據特區政府2021年人口普查，在香港7,093,081人口（不包括外籍家庭傭工）中，女性佔52.35%（3,712,977人），男性只佔47.65%（3,380,104人），即是女多男少。
以學歷程度計，在女性人口中，取得學位或研究院以上學歷的，佔19.82%（736,008人）；在男性人口中，取得同等學歷的有20.86%（705,033人），即是同為高學歷的也是女多男少。
以適婚年齡計，在女性人口中，20至44歲佔31.3%（1,161,808人）；在男性人口中，20至44歲佔31.4%（1,075,911人），都是女多男少。
以從未結婚的狀況計，在女性人口中，20至24歲從未結婚的高達95.34%（148,283人）；25至29歲79.57%（170,091人）；30至34歲45.64%（109,869人）；35至39歲25.17%（67,508人）；40至44歲19.84%（56,267人），即是女性遲婚者多。
以上數據反映的香港實況就是，香港女多男少，女性在擇偶或婚姻上面對很大競爭。香港女性在完成學業後，鮮有立即結婚，而是投身工作，發展事業，同樣面對本地或內地女性的競爭，待至稍有少成，有經濟基礎，有空間考慮結婚或生育，轉眼已年過30甚至40歲，即是大部分香港女性均未能做到盧局長所說的「有仔趁嫩生」，這是客觀存在的事實，希望盧局長多了解這些數據及背後反映的問題。
再者，我亦不認同盧局長所指，市民會「以為雪卵生仔很簡單」。事實上，女性採用輔助生育科技，不單要付上巨額費用，肉體上要經歷多重複雜而痛苦的步驟，還有漫長的等待，而且未必一次成功，要承受失敗的煎熬，我不認為會有女性因為特區政府提供了資助，便刻意雪卵或者刻意遲生，這是說不過去的；呼籲「有仔趁嫩生」也是無視了女性承擔的痛苦。
歐亞積極支援生育 港遠未追上
事實上，很多國家也面對出生率下降的問題，並對採用輔助生育科技的人士有不同程度的支援。例如英國修改《人類受精和胚胎學法》（Human Fertilisation and Embryology Act），將卵子、精子及胚胎的最長儲存期限由10年一律提高至55年。法國由國家醫療保險全額補貼43歲以下女性接受生育治療的費用。以色列為年齡18至45歲女性提供接近全額資助，讓其無限次接受體外受精療程，直至其與現有伴侶育有兩名子女為止。
鄰近國家也比香港走得前，日本已把「不妊治療」納入醫療保險報銷範圍，高達70%的生育治療費用可透過醫療保險發還；40歲以下女性最多可獲資助6個輔助生育科技治療療程。新加坡為符合條件的已婚夫婦提供最高75%的輔助生殖技術治療費用補貼，並允許他們動用國民儲蓄計劃下的醫療帳戶來支付手術費用。
由此可見，特區政府在支援市民採用輔助生育科技方面，遠遠未追上其他國家的腳步。盧局長宜認真審視數據和需求，體察女性面對的困境，參考其他國家的做法，為本港女性提供適切支援，真正做到鼓勵生育，不要再空談「有仔趁嫩生」。
Encouraging does not equal interfering, create a conducive environment
During a question-and-answer session at the Legislative Council meeting on February 8 this year, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Chris Sun answered the oral question from New People's Party legislator Eunice Yung, saying "childbearing and child-rearing are important decisions for families, and the government will introduce various measures to provide better support for those who want children, but should not interfere excessively." I do not agree that encouraging equals interfering.
Fortunately, the Chief Executive is now aware of the actual needs in society. The Policy Address addresses "Encouraging Childbearing and Creating a Conducive Environment for Child-rearing," noting that "the government must have policy orientation to encourage childbearing," which I believe is the right direction. Gladly, the Chief Executive accepted the New People's Party's proposal since 2022 to give a HK$20,000 incentive to newborn babies with a parent who is a permanent resident of Hong Kong. Citizens can treat the $20,000 as "red packet asin festuve seasons", everyone being happy, reflecting that the HKSAR government cares about childbearing instead of citizens bearing children hastily for the $20,000.
In addition, I support launching the "Priority Housing Allocation Scheme for Households with Newborns" and "Priority Flat Selection Scheme for Households with Newborns" to give priority to families with newborn babies and infants in public housing allocation and selecting housing property. Hopefully families in need can benefit.
With regards to addressing population aging, in addition to optimizing various elderly services, I am glad the Chief Executive accepted the New People's Party's proposal to establish a "Consultative Group on Silver Economy" to research the development potential of the silver economy. The New People's Party has always believed that the elderly are not a burden. Many elderly are active consumers, and they are a social resource. I hope this group will seriously examine the consumption behaviors and needs of the elderly group and put forward practical feasible proposals.
Deduction for fertility aids represent a good start
To discuss encouraging childbirth, the New People's Party was the earliest to propose providing HK$50,000 subsidy for women using assisted reproductive technologies such as IVF, to encourage women with need to make more flexible plans for childbearing and family. Glad to see this Policy Address finally touched on this area, recognizing the social need, and increasing the annual public quota for women receiving in vitro fertilization treatment from 1,100 to 1,800, a 60% rise , which I believe is a good start, hoping the HKSAR government will continue to propose measures encouraging the application of assisted reproductive technologies.
However, I do not agree with Secretary for Food and Health Prof Lo Chung-mau's repeated public remarks claiming citizens have "misconceptions that IVF will definitely lead to pregnancy" and that citizens "think IVF makes it easy to get pregnant." He also said "from a medical perspective, having a baby before 30 is completely different from after 40," and loudly calling on people to "have children while young."
Delayed childbearing overlooks women's actual circumstances
Indeed, purely from a medical perspective, no one doubts that it is most ideal for women to bear children when they are young with healthy bodies. But this view completely ignores Hong Kong's current social realities and actual circumstances facing women.
Let's let the data speak. According to the 2021 Population Census of the HKSAR government (excluding foreign domestic helpers), of the 7,093,081 population, women accounted for 52.35% (3,712,977) while men only accounted for 47.65% (3,380,104), meaning there are more women than men.
By education level, among the female population, those with a degree or postgraduate education accounted for 19.82% (736,008); among the male population, those with equivalent education accounted for 20.86% (705,033), meaning more highly educated women than men.
By marriageable age, among the female population, ages 20-44 accounted for 31.3% (1,161,808); among the male population, ages 20-44 accounted for 31.4% (1,075,911), both with more women than men.
By never married status, among the female population, never married rates were as high as 95.34% (148,283) for ages 20-24; 79.57% (170,091) for ages 25-29; 45.64% (109,869) for ages 30-34; 25.17% (67,508) for ages 35-39; and 19.84% (56,267) for ages 40-44, showing many delayed marriages among women.
The above data reflects Hong Kong's reality - more women than men, with great competition for women in choosing mates and marriage. Hong Kong women focus on completing their studies and careers after graduating, also facing competition from local and mainland women. By the time they have some achievements and economic foundation to consider marriage and childbearing, they have already passed 30 or even 40 years old. This is an objective fact that most Hong Kong women cannot achieve what Secretary Lo advocates of “having children while young”. I hope Secretary Lo can understand these data and underlying issues more.
I also do not agree that citizens would think "IVF makes pregnancy easy" as Secretary Lo claimed. In fact, women undertaking assisted reproductive technologies have to go through complex and painful procedures repeatedly at huge costs physically and mentally, with a long waiting period and no guarantee of success, bearing the agony of failure. I do not think women would deliberately choose IVF or delay childbearing just because the government provides subsidies. This claim is untenable and ignores women's suffering.
Northeast Asia actively supports childbearing while HK lags behind
In fact, many countries also face declining birth rates and provide different levels of support for those using assisted reproductive technologies. For example, the UK amended the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Act to universally extend the longest storage period for eggs, sperm and embryos from 10 to 55 years. France fully reimburses fertility treatment costs through national health insurance for women under 43. Israel provides almost full subsidies for women aged 18-45 to undergo unlimited IVF cycles until they have two children with their existing partner.
Neighboring countries have progressed more than Hong Kong. Japan has incorporated "infertility treatment" into medical insurance reimbursement, with up to 70% of fertility treatment costs reimbursable. Women under 40 can receive subsidies for up to six assisted reproductive technology treatment cycles. Singapore provides subsidies of up to 75% for assisted reproduction techniques for eligible married couples, and allows them to use their Medisave medical savings accounts to pay for surgery fees.
It is evident that the HKSAR government lags far behind other countries in supporting citizens' use of assisted reproductive technologies. Secretary Lo should seriously examine data and needs, understand women's predicaments, reference other countries' practices, and provide women with appropriate support to truly encourage childbearing instead of just empty talk of "having children while young."
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前文提及，美國政壇高齡化的情况變得愈發普遍。新聞網站「對話」（The Conversation）的一篇文章認為，造成此現象的其中一個原因是由於醫學進步，令老年人較以往健康，得以延遲退休。同時，文章進一步指出，認知和心理上的原因亦是導致這些資深政壇老將至今仍然活躍於政治舞台上的重要因素。
作者認為，在心理層面上促使這些政客繼續工作的動機，在於他們「不服老」的態度和缺少其他興趣所致。年長人士總希望證明能夠自主自立，不許依靠他人。至於後者，文章則指出，這些政客由於長期都醉心於工作，缺乏私人時間去探索自己熱愛的興趣。這使得他們離開工作崗位後，由於無事可做，不知道該如何面對自己餘下的人生。
而在認知層面上，有相當部分的資深政客始終抱有一種自己無法被取代的優越感。上文提及，以曾兩度於記者面前失神的共和黨參議院少數黨領袖麥康奈爾為例，作為一個政壇的老油條，麥康奈爾對於自己在制定選舉策略和游說方面的能力十分自豪。著名新聞網站「政客」（Politico）的一篇文章就詳述了麥康奈爾如何成功煽動民主黨參議員曼欽退出明年的參議院選舉，並暗示可能參選明年的總統大選。間接幫助了共和黨在西弗吉尼亞州的選情，並「𠝹」去拜登的選票。
由於曼欽在民主黨內屬於較為溫和的「中間派」，在個別議題上能夠和共和黨達成共識，因此在民主黨內並不受待見。而且他所在的西弗吉尼亞州本身又是共和黨的票倉，自身的選情較為嚴峻。麥康奈爾看準這一點，成功說服曼欽退出選舉。由於現時民主黨以51 對49 票的微弱優勢控制着參議院，如該州共和黨候選人成功當選，將會加大共和黨奪回參議院控制權的可能性。麥康奈爾本人對此事作為重要政績引以為榮，認為自己在黨內的價值難以被取代。
上述的例子可謂印證了「薑還是老的辣」這句說話。或許當今美國政壇高齡化的原因，正是因為這些資深政客身上具備年輕政客所缺乏的謀略和目光。
As mentioned earlier, the aging of the American political arena has become increasingly prevalent. An article on the news website "The Conversation" suggests that one of the reasons for this phenomenon is the advancement of medical science, which allows older individuals to maintain better health and delay retirement. Additionally, the article points out that cognitive and psychological factors play a significant role in keeping these seasoned politicians active in the political stage.
The author believes that the motivation for these politicians to continue working lies in their attitude of "refusing to grow old" and a lack of other interests. Older individuals often want to prove their ability to be self-sufficient and not rely on others. As for the latter, the article suggests that these politicians have been so immersed in their work for a long time that they lack personal time to explore their passions and hobbies. This leaves them unsure of how to face the remaining years of their lives once they leave their positions.
On the cognitive level, a considerable number of senior politicians maintain a sense of superiority that they cannot be replaced. As mentioned earlier, an example is Senate Minority Leader McConnell, who had two instances of losing consciousness in front of reporters. As a seasoned political operator, McConnell takes great pride in his ability to formulate election strategies and engage in lobbying. An article on the well-known news website "Politico" details how McConnell successfully instigated Democratic Senator Manchin to withdraw from next year's Senate election and hinted at a possible presidential run. This indirectly helped the Republican Party in the election in West Virginia and "eroded" Biden's votes.
Since Manchin is considered a more moderate "centrist" within the Democratic Party and can find common ground with Republicans on certain issues, he is not well-received within the Democratic Party. Moreover, West Virginia, where he is from, is a Republican stronghold, making his own electoral prospects more challenging. McConnell recognized this and successfully persuaded Manchin to withdraw from the election. With the current Democratic Party holding a slim majority of 51 to 49 in the Senate, if a Republican candidate wins in that state, it will increase the likelihood of Republicans regaining control of the Senate. McConnell himself takes pride in this achievement and believes that his value within the party is irreplaceable.
The above example can be seen as evidence of the saying, "Old ginger is spicier." Perhaps the reason for the aging of the American political arena today is that these senior politicians possess the strategic thinking and vision that younger politicians lack.
2024年逐步逼近，美國又將迎來新一輪選舉周期。除了四年一屆的美國總統大選外，眾議院全部435席位及參議院100席位中的34席亦將於2024年改選。
目前，共和、民主兩黨已有多位政客宣布參選，競逐總統寶座，包括爭取連任的現屆總統拜登、一直籌謀東山再起的前總統特朗普，還有前美國駐聯合國大使黑利（NikkiHaley），以及現任佛羅里達州州長德桑蒂斯（Ron DeSantis）等。
名單看來星光熠熠，但是美國公眾似乎更關注他們的高齡狀况，皆因拜登和特朗普已屆80及77歲古稀之齡，美國選民擔憂他們的身體狀態是否適合履行總統的繁重職務。
總統候選人的高齡化同時反映美國政壇高齡化日益嚴重。根據國際國會聯盟（Inter-ParliamentaryUnion）的統計，美國參議員的平均年齡為64歲，為世界第七高。同時，華府不少主要官員及政治領袖都由較年長的人士擔任，例如財長耶倫（77歲）、聯儲局主席鮑威爾（70歲）以及參議院共和黨領袖麥康奈爾（81歲），而83歲的眾議院前議長佩洛西早前亦宣布再次競逐連任眾議院議席；部分人士的健康情况似乎不大理想，拜登屢次跌倒受傷，又經常在公開場合說錯話，麥康奈爾更曾兩度於鏡頭前失神逾20秒及30秒。
另一方面，也有高齡議員堅持履行職務至生命最後一刻，例如剛於9月逝世的民主黨資深參議員DianneFeinstein，她在2月本因確診帶狀疱疹需要暫停職務，但她選擇告病假長達兩個月也不辭去參議員職位。
回顧當年，老布殊在1992年連任總統失敗後，便順勢退休，當時他68歲。為何來到今天，美國政壇會愈來愈高齡化？
新聞網站「對話」（The Conversation）11月6日便有文章拆解原因，主要是因為醫學進步，人類平均較以往長壽，很多長者都身心健康，加上累積了寶貴的人生及工作經驗，適合繼續處理日常工作，政壇也不例外。至於其他原因，下期詳述。
As 2024 approaches, the United States is gearing up for another election cycle. In addition to the quadrennial presidential election, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 seats in the Senate will also be up for election in 2024.
Currently, several politicians from the Republican and Democratic parties have announced their candidacy for the presidential race. This includes the incumbent President Biden seeking re-election, former President Trump, who has been contemplating a comeback, as well as former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and current Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, among others.
While the list appears star-studded, the American public seems more concerned about the age of these candidates. Biden and Trump are already in their 80s and 77s, respectively, and voters worry about their physical condition and whether they are fit to handle the demanding duties of the presidency.
The aging of presidential candidates reflects a broader trend of aging in the American political arena. According to the Inter-Parliamentary Union's statistics, the average age of U.S. senators is 64, ranking seventh highest in the world. Additionally, many of Washington's key officials and political leaders are older individuals. For example, Treasury Secretary Yellen (77), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell (70), and Senate Republican Leader McConnell (81) are all advanced in age. Former Speaker of the House Pelosi, who is 83 years old, has recently announced her intention to run for re-election to the House of Representatives. Some of these individuals' health conditions seem less than ideal, with Biden experiencing multiple falls and injuries and frequently making verbal gaffes in public. McConnell has also had two episodes of losing consciousness for over 20 seconds and 30 seconds on camera.
On the other hand, there are also elderly lawmakers who insist on serving until their last moments. For example, Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein, who passed away in September, initially took a leave of absence in February due to a shingles diagnosis but chose to remain in office for an additional two months while on sick leave.
Looking back, former President George H.W. Bush retired at the age of 68 after losing his re-election bid in 1992. Why has the American political arena become increasingly dominated by older individuals today?
An article published on the news website "The Conversation" on November 6 provides insights into the reasons behind this trend. One key factor is the advancement of medical science, which has led to increased life expectancy. Many seniors today are physically and mentally healthy, and they have accumulated valuable life and work experience, making them suitable for continuing their day-to-day duties, including in politics. The detailed discussion of other factors will be covered in the next installment.
前文提到，美國政客為抑制中國科技行業的增長勢頭，不惜使出行政手段斷絕兩國之間的學術交流，慎防技術泄漏。美國司法部實施的「中國行動計劃」便是其中最具爭議性的「獵巫行動」。
「中國行動計劃」是由特朗普政府第一任司法部長塞申斯於2018年11月宣布開展的計劃，旨在找出並起訴所有潛伏在美國境內、與中國有聯繫的「科技間諜」。按照《經濟學人》文章的說法，計劃成效未如人意，約150名華裔學者因該計劃而受到司法部調查，在成功檢控的案例中，被告多是遭控告如欺騙科研經費等情節相對較輕的罪名，而非間諜罪。更多的情况是，司法部由於無法找到足夠的證據去證明嫌疑人有為中國從事任何間諜活動，最後要撤銷檢控並淪為大眾的笑柄。當中，司法部對麻省理工學院陳剛教授的調查行動可說是「中國行動計劃」的著名失敗案例。
陳剛教授是一位於美國取得博士學位的中國機械工程師。《紐約時報》一篇文章指出，FBI於2021年1月指控陳剛在提交科研撥款申請時涉嫌未披露與中國相關的聯繫，因而將他拘捕。後來，麻省理工力挺陳剛，FBI亦未能找到「實錘」證據提出檢控，司法部方才罷休。但是已對陳剛的名譽及工作造成打擊。
陳剛以外，有更多中國學者因遭受這計劃調查而失去工作，甚至被美國政府列入「禁飛名單」，無法透過航空交通前往、途經或飛離美國。
後來，因為計劃成效不彰，美國司法部終於在2022年2月宣布結束長達數年的「中國行動計劃」。
其實，中美雙方能在不同的科技領域形成互補，兩國的學術界若是全面脫鈎，相信對雙方都是有百害而無一利。亞利桑那大學於2020年發表了一份研究報告，由於與中國學者合著的論文不會納入計算，美國在科學及工程領域方面發表的論文數量分別在2014和2018年錄得輕微跌幅，可謂自食其果。因此，我認為中美兩國應本着平等互利的原則，放下成見，盡快恢復雙方學術界的交流合作。
In the previous articles, it was mentioned that American politicians, in an effort to curb the growth of China's technology industry, have used administrative measures to sever academic exchanges between the two countries, in order to prevent technology leaks. One of the most controversial actions implemented by the U.S. Department of Justice is the "China Initiative," which can be considered a "witch hunt" against Chinese scientists.
The China Initiative was announced by former U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions in November 2018, with the aim of identifying and prosecuting all "technology spies" with connections to China who are operating in the United States. According to The Economist article, the initiative has been less effective than anticipated. Around 150 Chinese-American scholars have been investigated by the Department of Justice under this initiative. In the cases where successful prosecutions have occurred, the defendants have faced relatively minor charges such as fraudulently obtaining research funding, rather than espionage charges. In many cases, the Department of Justice has been unable to find sufficient evidence to prove that the suspects were engaged in any espionage activities for China, resulting in the charges being dropped and becoming a subject of ridicule. One notable failed case of the China Initiative is the investigation against Professor Gang Chen at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
Professor Gang Chen is a Chinese mechanical engineer who obtained his doctoral degree in the United States. An article in The New York Times pointed out that the FBI arrested Professor Chen in January 2021, accusing him of failing to disclose his connections to China in his research funding applications. However, MIT supported Professor Chen, and the FBI failed to find substantial evidence for prosecution, leading to the case being dropped by the Department of Justice. Nevertheless, the incident has caused damage to Professor Chen's reputation and career.
Apart from Professor Chen, many other Chinese scholars have lost their jobs and have even been included in the U.S. government's "no-fly list," preventing them from traveling to, transiting through, or leaving the United States by air, due to being investigated under the China Initiative.
Eventually, due to the lack of significant results, the U.S. Department of Justice announced the end of the China Initiative in February 2022, after several years of implementation.
In fact, if Chinese and American academic circles completely decouple, it would be detrimental to both sides, as they can complement each other in different technological fields. A research report published by the University of Arizona in 2020 showed that the number of scientific and engineering papers published by the United States experienced a slight decline between 2014 and 2018 because co-authored papers with Chinese scholars were not included in the calculations. It can be said that this approach has backfired. Therefore, I believe that China and the United States should adhere to the principles of equality and mutual benefit, set aside biases, and quickly restore academic exchanges and cooperation between the two sides.
承接上文，隨着中美關係惡化所帶來的影響日益擴大，原本偏安一隅的學術界亦受到波及。《經濟學人》10 月11日的文章指出，兩國學界脫鈎的趨勢其實早有徵兆。2020 年時，由中美學者共同編寫的學術論文數量，出現自2002年以來的首次下跌，而且跌勢在2021年持續。與此同時，簽發予中國留學生及學者的赴美簽證數量亦跌至新低，僅有2015 年巔峰時的三分之一。
為防止自身技術進一步外流，美國可謂出盡渾身解數。《經濟學人》的文章指出，有數名美國議員曾在一封公開信中呼籲拜登政府不要續簽中美《科技合作協定》（Science And Technology Agreement, STA）。STA 是1979年兩國建立外交關係時首批簽署的協定之一，為兩國建立了在科技領域合作的聯合機制，使得多個突破性的科學研究得以開展。
例如有關預防脊柱裂（Spina Bifida）的研究，便是因為STA 的簽署才得以開展。脊柱裂是罕見的先天性神經疾病，受環境因素影響而較少出現在發達國家。因此，科學家過往缺乏足夠案例對其進行病理學研究。受惠於STA 的簽署，美國科學家得以於1983 年開始對多達285,000 名中國婦女追蹤研究，並證明孕婦在妊娠期間充分攝取葉酸（Folic Acid）就能有效避免新生嬰兒患上脊柱裂。得益於是次研究，葉酸現時已被廣泛加入到麵粉、麵包、玉米片等食品中，減低了脊柱裂的新增個案。
縱使中美兩國的學術交流為雙方帶來便利，但中國在電腦、材料技術及人工智能等領域逐漸取得的領先地位卻引起了一眾美國政客的憂慮。這些政客指控中國利用美國較高的學術透明度去獲取專業知識，完全是佔了美國的便宜。更有陰謀論者鼓吹中國所實施的「軍民融合發展戰略」利用民營企業及學術交流等途徑將獲取的技術用於支持中國軍隊的現代化。但由於缺乏直接證據證明，這些指控只淪為謠傳。
下文繼續詳述中美學界脫鈎的未來發展趨勢。
Continuing from the previous article, with the worsening of Sino-US relations, the impact has extended to the previously secluded academic realm. An article in The Economist on October 11th pointed out that the trend of decoupling between the academic circles of the two countries had shown signs earlier. In 2020, the number of academic papers co-authored by Chinese and American scholars experienced its first decline since 2002, and the downward trend continued in 2021. At the same time, the issuance of visas to Chinese students and scholars to study in the United States reached a new low, only one-third of the peak in 2015.
To prevent further outflow of their own technology, the United States has deployed all its resources. The Economist article mentioned that several U.S. lawmakers had urged the Biden administration not to renew the U.S.-China Science and Technology Cooperation Agreement (STA) in an open letter. STA is one of the first agreements signed by the two countries when they established diplomatic relations in 1979, establishing a joint mechanism for cooperation in the field of science and technology, enabling breakthrough scientific research in various areas.
For example, research on the prevention of Spina Bifida was able to proceed thanks to the signing of the STA. Spina Bifida is a rare congenital neural disorder that occurs less frequently in developed countries due to environmental factors. Therefore, scientists previously lacked sufficient cases for pathological studies. Benefiting from the signing of the STA, American scientists were able to conduct a follow-up study on up to 285,000 Chinese women starting in 1983, proving that sufficient intake of folic acid during pregnancy can effectively prevent newborns from developing Spina Bifida. As a result of this research, folic acid is now widely added to foods such as flour, bread, and corn flakes, reducing the number of new cases of Spina Bifida.
Although academic exchanges between China and the United States have brought benefits to both parties, China's growing leadership in fields such as computers, materials technology, and artificial intelligence has raised concerns among American politicians. These politicians accuse China of taking advantage of the higher academic transparency in the United States to acquire professional knowledge, which is entirely to America's disadvantage. Furthermore, conspiracy theorists have advocated the notion that China's "civil-military fusion development strategy" utilizes avenues such as private enterprises and academic exchanges to acquire technology to support the modernization of the Chinese military. However, due to a lack of direct evidence, these accusations have only remained as rumors.
The following section will further elaborate on the future development trends of the decoupling between Chinese and American academic circles.
承接上文，電影《封神第一部：朝歌風雲》的國際化幕後團隊和演員陣容使電影質量足以媲美荷李活電影，亦為電影在各個專業影評網站換來較高的評價：截稿前豆瓣評分7.8、Rotten Tomato 觀眾評分92% 和貓眼評分9.4，成績相當不俗。
可是，《朝歌風雲》這些評分未能轉化為票房收入。華律網2021 年一篇文章指出，內地電影的票房通常需達到製作成本的3 倍方能「回本」。當中，收入約8.3% 會預留作國家電影專款和稅款；餘下收入在扣除給院線、電影院和宣發方的分成後，最後製作方的淨收入大概只有總票房的26% 至35%。導演烏爾善在2019 年接受時光網訪問時曾透露，《封神三部曲》的總製作成本約30億元人民幣。若以每部電影10 億的製作成本估算，《朝歌風雲》需獲得相當於總製作成本的30 億元票房才能「回本」。但貓眼數據顯示，電影至今累積票房約26.3 億元，尚未達到收支平衡。
我認為《朝歌風雲》票房未如預期，主要受兩方面影響。首先，導演烏爾善在電影上映前已預告故事分三部曲上映。這安排導致部分想要觀賞完整故事的觀眾卻步。另一方面，由於電影取材的來源《封神演義》和《武王伐紂平話》成書時代都較為久遠，表達的價值觀或與現時社會的主流價值觀有所出入，相信未必為所有觀眾接受。反觀《孤注一擲》和《消失的她》等改編自社會事件、題材更貼近生活的同期電影，票房表現遠較《朝歌風雲》要好。
順帶一提，由頂流明星王一博出演的《長空之王》講述主角作為一名試飛員參與最新型戰機試飛任務的故事。有意見指出，《長空之王》不論是角色設定抑或劇情鋪排都有《壯志凌雲》（Top Gun ）的影子，《經濟學人》稱其為中國版Top Gun ，可見內地片商似乎有意借鑑荷李活，利用動作大片去宣傳愛國主義教育。縱使《長空之王》的累積票房只有8.51 億元，僅僅符合預期，但鑑於這類題材和製作的國產電影仍處於起步階段，未來發展可期。
Talking about Domestic Films: Acclaim or Box Office Success?
Continuing from the previous article, the international behind-the-scenes team and cast of the film "Creation of the Gods I: Kingdom of Storms" have ensured a quality comparable to Hollywood films. The film has also received relatively high ratings on various professional film review websites: a 7.8 score on Douban, a 92% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes, and a 9.4 score on Maoyan. Its performance has been quite impressive.
However, these ratings have not translated into box office revenue for "Kingdom of Storms." In a 2021 article by Hualu.com, it was pointed out that mainland Chinese films usually need to achieve three times their production cost at the box office to break even. Approximately 8.3% of the revenue is reserved for national film funds and taxes, while the remaining income, after deducting the shares for theaters, cinema chains, and distributors, results in a net income for the production company of only about 26% to 35% of the total box office. Director Wuershan revealed in an interview with TimeNet in 2019 that the total production cost of the "Creation of Gods Trilogy" is around 3 billion Chinese yuan. Assuming a production cost of 1 billion yuan per film, "Kingdom of Storms" would need to earn 3 billion yuan at the box office to break even. However, according to Maoyan data, the film has accumulated a box office revenue of approximately 2.63 billion yuan, which has not reached the breakeven point.
In my opinion, the underperformance of "Koingdom of Storms" at the box office can be attributed to two main factors. Firstly, director Wuershan had already announced before the film's release that the story would be divided into three parts. This arrangement may have deterred some audiences who wanted to see the complete story. Secondly, as the source material for the film, "Investiture of the Gods" and "The Story of the Battle of Muye," were written in a relatively distant era, the values they express may not align with the mainstream values of contemporary society, and thus may not be universally accepted by all audiences.
In contrast, films released around the same time like "No More Bets" and "Lost in the Stars" which are based on social events and have subject matter more closely related to everyday life, have performed significantly better at the box office than "Kingdom of Storms"
On a side note, "Born to Fly" starring top-tier star Wang Yibo, tells the story of a protagonist participating in the latest fighter jet test flight as a pilot. Some commentators have pointed out that "Born to Fly," whether in terms of character design or plot arrangement, bears similarities to "Top Gun." The Economist referred to it as the Chinese version of "Top Gun," indicating that mainland Chinese film companies seem to intentionally draw inspiration from Hollywood and use action blockbusters to promote patriotic education. Although "Born to Fly" has only accumulated a box office revenue of 851 million yuan, meeting expectations, considering that films of this genre and production caliber in the domestic market are still in the early stages, their future development is promising.
內地的電影產業發展近年愈發蓬勃。香港貿發局經貿研究於3月22日的一篇文章指出內地電影市場於2022年已成為繼美國荷李活後，世界第二大的電影市場，佔全球票房16%。國產電影亦已取代過往最為賣座的荷李活電影，成為內地綜合票房表現最好的電影類別。根據內地網站新財網10月23日報道，今年全國電影累計票房已達到487.5億元人民幣。當中，票房排行榜前十名全由國產電影獲得，可見國產電影深受內地觀眾歡迎。
有不少大製作電影就被安排在今年的暑假黃金檔上映，包括：總票房在短短25天內就突破了20億元的《封神第一部：朝歌風雲》（《朝歌風雲》）、由頂流王一博出演的《熱烈》和《長空之王》，以及偏向社會現實的懸疑犯罪片《孤注一擲》和《消失的她》等。其中，《朝歌風雲》掀起的反響最為熱烈。作為一名電影愛好者，我立即聯同海上絲綢之路協會組織了一場電影欣賞會，邀請了百多位嘉賓一同觀賞《朝歌風雲》。
作為一部騰訊參與投資製作的高成本電影，《朝歌風雲》擁有國際級的幕後班底：不但有曾獲第48屆金馬獎最佳新導演獎的蒙古族導演烏爾善執導、憑電影《天煞-地球反擊戰》（Independence Day）贏得第69屆奧斯卡最佳視覺效果獎的視覺特技師DouglasSmith，更請來《魔戒三部曲》的製作人BarrieOsborne擔任顧問。而演員方面，男主角由美籍華人演員費翔（KrisPhilips）出演。費翔本身是一位百老匯舞台劇演員，演出經驗十分豐富，演技一流；女主角妲己的選角則讓人眼前一亮。
提起妲己這角色，香港年長一輩或會想起粵劇紅伶秦小梨，又或者會想起溫碧霞。是次妲己的角色則由俄蒙混血演員娜然（NaranaErdyneeva）出演，將妲己妖嬈多姿、紅顏禍水形象發揮到極致。加上奧斯卡最佳視覺特效獎的 DouglasSmith負責後期製作，《朝歌風雲》一點也不遜色於荷李活電影。
Discussing Domestic Films: Thoughts on "Kingdom of Storms"
The development of the mainland Chinese film industry has been flourishing in recent years. According to an article by the Hong Kong Trade Development Council on March 22, the mainland Chinese film market has become the world's second-largest after Hollywood, accounting for 16% of global box office revenue in 2022. Domestic films have also replaced Hollywood films as the best-performing category in terms of overall box office performance in mainland China. According to a report by Xincainet, a mainland Chinese website, the cumulative box office revenue for domestic films this year has reached 48.75 billion yuan. The top ten films on the box office chart are all domestic productions, indicating the popularity of domestic films among mainland Chinese audiences.
Many big-budget films were scheduled for release during the summer holiday season this year, including "Creation of Gods I: Kongdom of Storms," which surpassed 2 billion yuan at the box office within just 25 days, as well as "One and Only " and "Born to Fly," both featuring popular actor Wang Yibo, and the suspense crime films "No More Bets" and "Lost in the Stars" which have more of a social realism theme. Among them, "Kingdom of Storms" has generated the most enthusiastic response. As a film enthusiast, I immediately organized a film appreciation event in collaboration with the Maritime Silk Road Society, inviting over a hundred guests to watch "Chaos in Chao" together.
As a high-cost film with Tencent's investment and production involvement, "Kingdom of Storms" boasts an international-level behind-the-scenes team. It is directed by Wuershan, a Mongolian director who won the Best New Director award at the 48th Golden Horse Awards. The film also features visual effects by Douglas Smith, who won the Academy Award for Best Visual Effects for "Independence Day," as well as the production consultancy of Barrie Osborne, the producer of "The Lord of the Rings" trilogy. In terms of casting, the male lead is played by Kris Philips, a Chinese-American actor with extensive experience in Broadway stage plays and outstanding acting skills. The casting of the female lead, Daji, is particularly eye-catching.
When it comes to the character Daji, older generations in Hong Kong may recall Cantonese opera actress Qin Xiaoli or perhaps think of Irene Wen. However, in this film, the role of Daji is portrayed by Narana Erdyneeva, a Russian-Mongolian actress, who showcases Daji's seductive and enchanting persona to the fullest. With the post-production work handled by Douglas Smith, the Oscar-winning visual effects artist, "Kingdom of Storms" is in no way inferior to Hollywood films.
樓市近月的跌勢令人擔憂。土地註冊處資料顯示，住宅樓宇交易的成交數由4 月的4583 宗跌至9 月的2862 宗。就此，有政黨和專業團體向政府建議應對樓市「減辣」。
消息傳出後，外界一直觀望政府會否調低樓市印花稅和撤銷股票印花稅。同時，坊間有意見擔心樓市「減辣」有可能觸發新一波炒賣潮，令樓價回升至歷史高位。但只要政府不撤銷遏抑轉售住宅物業的額外印花稅（SSD），相信短期內不會出現炒賣住宅單位的情况。加上內地近年經濟疲弱、樓市利率高居不下，過往大量內地買家入市買樓的舊况怕難重現。而本地市場雖對住宅單位有剛性需求，但樓市利率高企，即使政府寬免個別的印花稅項，樓價即時出現急升的可能性亦較低。雖然只靠上述的擬議措施去刺激經濟增長，在大環境改善前作用恐怕有限，但鑑於近期香港經濟疲弱，樓市、股市交投減少，我亦贊成政府應推出減稅措施以刺激市道。
香港經濟增長率近年轉趨疲弱。按照政府發表的《2023 年第一季經濟報告》和《2023 年半年經濟報告》資料顯示，雖然香港今年首季度的經濟錄得2.7%的增長，但由於旅遊業和本地消費增長復蘇放緩，第二季度的經濟增長率已同步放緩至1.5%。雖然發展局最近開展的「香港夜繽紛」活動在一定程度上刺激了人流和本地消費，但我認為活動長遠對刺激經濟增長的作用始終有限。因此，政府可能要推出更多措施才能刺激本地經濟增長。
是次經濟放緩之所以出現，牽涉到多方面因素。除因新冠疫情導致經濟活動近乎停擺外，亦與本地經濟及產業結構單一、未有及時進行產業轉型等結構性因素，以及利率高企等周期性因素有關。除去上述因素外，我認為這次經濟增長放緩也是由於地緣政治局勢緊張所導致。面對美國對華在金融、貿易和科技上的全面打壓，以及俄烏戰爭和以巴戰爭兩場地域性戰爭，我相信地緣政治因素將是香港在未來至少10 至20 年內需要面對的一大挑戰。
Hong Kong's Long-term Challenges in Economic Recovery part 1
The downward trend of the property market in recent months is worrying. According to the Land Registry, the number of residential property transactions fell from 4,583 in April to 2,862 in September. In view of this, some political parties and professional organizations have suggested that the government should take measures to "cool down" the property market.
After the news broke out, the public has been watching closely to see if the government will lower property stamp duty and abolish stock stamp duty. Meanwhile, some worry that "cooling measures" may potentially trigger a new wave of property speculation and drive prices back to historical highs. However, as long as the government does not remove extra stamp duty on non-residential property transactions (SSD), it is believed that speculation on residential units will not emerge in the short term. Coupled with China's economic weakness in recent years and the high mortgage rates in Hong Kong, it will be difficult to restore the old situation of massive property purchases by mainland Chinese buyers. While the local market has inelastic demand for residential units, high interest rates mean that even if the government waives some individual stamp duty items, the immediate surge in prices is also relatively low. Although the proposed measures alone may have limited effect in stimulating economic growth before major environmental improvements, given Hong Kong's recent economic weakness and falling turnover in the property and stock markets, I also agree that the government should introduce tax relief measures to stimulate the market.
Hong Kong's economic growth rate has been lackluster in recent years. According to data from the HKSAR government's "2023 First Quarter Economic Report" and "2023 Mid-Year Economic Report", while Hong Kong's economy grew 2.7% in the first quarter of this year, the slowdown in tourism and domestic consumption recovery has caused economic growth to ease simultaneously to 1.5% in the second quarter. Although the Development Bureau's recent "Hong Kong Nightlife" campaign has to some extent stimulated foot traffic and local consumption in the short term, I believe its long-term impact on stimulating economic growth will remain limited. Therefore, the government may need to introduce more measures to boost domestic economic growth.
The reasons for this economic slowdown are multi-faceted. In addition to the near-halt in economic activities due to the pandemic, structural factors such as Hong Kong's single-industrial economy and failure to timely transform industries, as well as cyclical factors such as high interest rates, are also involved. Excluding the above factors, I believe this slowdown in economic growth was also due to geopolitical tensions. Facing comprehensive suppression from the US on China in finance, trade and technology, as well as two regional wars in Ukraine and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, I believe geopolitical factors will be a major challenge for Hong Kong to face in the next 10 to 20 years at least.
行政長官李家超上周三（10月25日）宣讀了3個半小時的施政報告，當中涵蓋多個政策範疇，並接納了新民黨至少15項建議，反映行政長官有願意聆聽和廣於接納的氣度。本篇集中討論有關人口政策、鼓勵生育的內容。
香港出生率低、人口老化是不爭事實。2018年至今，香港的出生率由1.08跌至0.701。正如施政報告第113段提到，「本港夫婦平均子女數目下降至2022年的0.9名新低點。同時，香港是全球最長壽的地區之一，65歲及以上長者佔全港人口比例，將在未來十年內由兩成攀升至近三分之一。」
鼓勵不等於干預 締造有利環境
今年2月8日的立法會大會，勞福局局長孫玉菡回答新民黨容海恩議員的口頭質詢時，說「……生兒育女是家庭的重要決定，政府會推出各項措施，為有意生育的人士提供更好的支援，但不宜過分干預」，我並不認同，鼓勵並不等於干預。
猶幸現在行政長官察知社會有實際需要，因此施政報告以〈鼓勵生育，締造有利育兒環境〉為篇，指出「政府必須有政策導向，鼓勵生育」，我認為方向正確。其中，很高興行政長官接納了新民黨於2022年起提出的建議，向父或母為香港永久性居民的新生嬰兒發放2萬元獎勵金。市民大可把2萬元當成是「大利市」，皆大歡喜，反映特區政府重視生育，而不是說市民會貪圖這2萬元便立即生、生、生。
此外，我贊成推出「家有初生優先配屋計劃」和「家有初生優先選樓計劃」，讓家有新生嬰幼兒的家庭優先上樓（公屋）、選樓（居屋），期望有需要的家庭能受惠。
應對人口老化方面，除了優化各項安老服務，很欣慰行政長官接納新民黨建議，成立「銀髮經濟顧問小組」，研究銀髮經濟的發展潛力。新民黨一直主張，長者不是負累，很多長者充滿活力又具消費力，他們是社會資源，我期望這個小組認真檢視長者群體的消費行為及需求，並提出切實可行的建議。
輔助生育增名額扣稅 屬好開始
回說鼓勵生育，新民黨最早提出，為使用雪卵等輔助生育科技的女性提供5萬元資助，鼓勵有需要的女性作更靈活的生育及家庭計劃。喜見今次施政報告終有涉獵這範疇，認同社會有此需要，把接受體外受精治療服務的公營名額，由每年1,100個，增加六成至1,800個；同時增設輔助生育稅項扣除，我認為是好的開始，期望特區政府會繼續提出鼓勵運用輔助生育科技的措施。
不過，我對於醫務衞生局局長盧寵茂教授多次公開發言，指市民對輔助生育工具有錯誤觀念：「覺得雪個卵將來生完全無問題」，指市民「以為雪卵生仔很簡單」，又說「從醫療角度上說，30歲前同40歲後生完全兩回事」，還高聲呼籲「有仔趁嫩生！」我並不苟同。
女性遲生育 惟實際處境遭漠視
誠然，純粹從醫學角度來說，誰不知道女性在年輕身體好的時候生育最理想，可是這個說法完全漠視了香港現今的社會實況及女性面對的實際處境。
我們來讓數據說話，根據特區政府2021年人口普查，在香港7,093,081人口（不包括外籍家庭傭工）中，女性佔52.35%（3,712,977人），男性只佔47.65%（3,380,104人），即是女多男少。
以學歷程度計，在女性人口中，取得學位或研究院以上學歷的，佔19.82%（736,008人）；在男性人口中，取得同等學歷的有20.86%（705,033人），即是同為高學歷的也是女多男少。
以適婚年齡計，在女性人口中，20至44歲佔31.3%（1,161,808人）；在男性人口中，20至44歲佔31.4%（1,075,911人），都是女多男少。
以從未結婚的狀況計，在女性人口中，20至24歲從未結婚的高達95.34%（148,283人）；25至29歲79.57%（170,091人）；30至34歲45.64%（109,869人）；35至39歲25.17%（67,508人）；40至44歲19.84%（56,267人），即是女性遲婚者多。
以上數據反映的香港實況就是，香港女多男少，女性在擇偶或婚姻上面對很大競爭。香港女性在完成學業後，鮮有立即結婚，而是投身工作，發展事業，同樣面對本地或內地女性的競爭，待至稍有少成，有經濟基礎，有空間考慮結婚或生育，轉眼已年過30甚至40歲，即是大部分香港女性均未能做到盧局長所說的「有仔趁嫩生」，這是客觀存在的事實，希望盧局長多了解這些數據及背後反映的問題。
再者，我亦不認同盧局長所指，市民會「以為雪卵生仔很簡單」。事實上，女性採用輔助生育科技，不單要付上巨額費用，肉體上要經歷多重複雜而痛苦的步驟，還有漫長的等待，而且未必一次成功，要承受失敗的煎熬，我不認為會有女性因為特區政府提供了資助，便刻意雪卵或者刻意遲生，這是說不過去的；呼籲「有仔趁嫩生」也是無視了女性承擔的痛苦。
歐亞積極支援生育 港遠未追上
事實上，很多國家也面對出生率下降的問題，並對採用輔助生育科技的人士有不同程度的支援。例如英國修改《人類受精和胚胎學法》（Human Fertilisation and Embryology Act），將卵子、精子及胚胎的最長儲存期限由10年一律提高至55年。法國由國家醫療保險全額補貼43歲以下女性接受生育治療的費用。以色列為年齡18至45歲女性提供接近全額資助，讓其無限次接受體外受精療程，直至其與現有伴侶育有兩名子女為止。
鄰近國家也比香港走得前，日本已把「不妊治療」納入醫療保險報銷範圍，高達70%的生育治療費用可透過醫療保險發還；40歲以下女性最多可獲資助6個輔助生育科技治療療程。新加坡為符合條件的已婚夫婦提供最高75%的輔助生殖技術治療費用補貼，並允許他們動用國民儲蓄計劃下的醫療帳戶來支付手術費用。
由此可見，特區政府在支援市民採用輔助生育科技方面，遠遠未追上其他國家的腳步。盧局長宜認真審視數據和需求，體察女性面對的困境，參考其他國家的做法，為本港女性提供適切支援，真正做到鼓勵生育，不要再空談「有仔趁嫩生」。
Encouraging does not equal interfering, create a conducive environment
During a question-and-answer session at the Legislative Council meeting on February 8 this year, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Chris Sun answered the oral question from New People's Party legislator Eunice Yung, saying "childbearing and child-rearing are important decisions for families, and the government will introduce various measures to provide better support for those who want children, but should not interfere excessively." I do not agree that encouraging equals interfering.
Fortunately, the Chief Executive is now aware of the actual needs in society. The Policy Address addresses "Encouraging Childbearing and Creating a Conducive Environment for Child-rearing," noting that "the government must have policy orientation to encourage childbearing," which I believe is the right direction. Gladly, the Chief Executive accepted the New People's Party's proposal since 2022 to give a HK$20,000 incentive to newborn babies with a parent who is a permanent resident of Hong Kong. Citizens can treat the $20,000 as "red packet asin festuve seasons", everyone being happy, reflecting that the HKSAR government cares about childbearing instead of citizens bearing children hastily for the $20,000.
In addition, I support launching the "Priority Housing Allocation Scheme for Households with Newborns" and "Priority Flat Selection Scheme for Households with Newborns" to give priority to families with newborn babies and infants in public housing allocation and selecting housing property. Hopefully families in need can benefit.
With regards to addressing population aging, in addition to optimizing various elderly services, I am glad the Chief Executive accepted the New People's Party's proposal to establish a "Consultative Group on Silver Economy" to research the development potential of the silver economy. The New People's Party has always believed that the elderly are not a burden. Many elderly are active consumers, and they are a social resource. I hope this group will seriously examine the consumption behaviors and needs of the elderly group and put forward practical feasible proposals.
Deduction for fertility aids represent a good start
To discuss encouraging childbirth, the New People's Party was the earliest to propose providing HK$50,000 subsidy for women using assisted reproductive technologies such as IVF, to encourage women with need to make more flexible plans for childbearing and family. Glad to see this Policy Address finally touched on this area, recognizing the social need, and increasing the annual public quota for women receiving in vitro fertilization treatment from 1,100 to 1,800, a 60% rise , which I believe is a good start, hoping the HKSAR government will continue to propose measures encouraging the application of assisted reproductive technologies.
However, I do not agree with Secretary for Food and Health Prof Lo Chung-mau's repeated public remarks claiming citizens have "misconceptions that IVF will definitely lead to pregnancy" and that citizens "think IVF makes it easy to get pregnant." He also said "from a medical perspective, having a baby before 30 is completely different from after 40," and loudly calling on people to "have children while young."
Delayed childbearing overlooks women's actual circumstances
Indeed, purely from a medical perspective, no one doubts that it is most ideal for women to bear children when they are young with healthy bodies. But this view completely ignores Hong Kong's current social realities and actual circumstances facing women.
Let's let the data speak. According to the 2021 Population Census of the HKSAR government (excluding foreign domestic helpers), of the 7,093,081 population, women accounted for 52.35% (3,712,977) while men only accounted for 47.65% (3,380,104), meaning there are more women than men.
By education level, among the female population, those with a degree or postgraduate education accounted for 19.82% (736,008); among the male population, those with equivalent education accounted for 20.86% (705,033), meaning more highly educated women than men.
By marriageable age, among the female population, ages 20-44 accounted for 31.3% (1,161,808); among the male population, ages 20-44 accounted for 31.4% (1,075,911), both with more women than men.
By never married status, among the female population, never married rates were as high as 95.34% (148,283) for ages 20-24; 79.57% (170,091) for ages 25-29; 45.64% (109,869) for ages 30-34; 25.17% (67,508) for ages 35-39; and 19.84% (56,267) for ages 40-44, showing many delayed marriages among women.
The above data reflects Hong Kong's reality - more women than men, with great competition for women in choosing mates and marriage. Hong Kong women focus on completing their studies and careers after graduating, also facing competition from local and mainland women. By the time they have some achievements and economic foundation to consider marriage and childbearing, they have already passed 30 or even 40 years old. This is an objective fact that most Hong Kong women cannot achieve what Secretary Lo advocates of “having children while young”. I hope Secretary Lo can understand these data and underlying issues more.
I also do not agree that citizens would think "IVF makes pregnancy easy" as Secretary Lo claimed. In fact, women undertaking assisted reproductive technologies have to go through complex and painful procedures repeatedly at huge costs physically and mentally, with a long waiting period and no guarantee of success, bearing the agony of failure. I do not think women would deliberately choose IVF or delay childbearing just because the government provides subsidies. This claim is untenable and ignores women's suffering.
Northeast Asia actively supports childbearing while HK lags behind
In fact, many countries also face declining birth rates and provide different levels of support for those using assisted reproductive technologies. For example, the UK amended the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Act to universally extend the longest storage period for eggs, sperm and embryos from 10 to 55 years. France fully reimburses fertility treatment costs through national health insurance for women under 43. Israel provides almost full subsidies for women aged 18-45 to undergo unlimited IVF cycles until they have two children with their existing partner.
Neighboring countries have progressed more than Hong Kong. Japan has incorporated "infertility treatment" into medical insurance reimbursement, with up to 70% of fertility treatment costs reimbursable. Women under 40 can receive subsidies for up to six assisted reproductive technology treatment cycles. Singapore provides subsidies of up to 75% for assisted reproduction techniques for eligible married couples, and allows them to use their Medisave medical savings accounts to pay for surgery fees.
It is evident that the HKSAR government lags far behind other countries in supporting citizens' use of assisted reproductive technologies. Secretary Lo should seriously examine data and needs, understand women's predicaments, reference other countries' practices, and provide women with appropriate support to truly encourage childbearing instead of just empty talk of "having children while young."
繼續談談加密貨幣交易平台FTX 騙案。上文提到案件主人公FTX 創辦人兼總裁Sam Bankman-Fried 的父母均為史丹福法律學院的教授。Sam 獨創的 FTT 幣，是FTX 的平台幣。根據報道，在最高峰時期，FTX 平台的市值一度達到320 億美元。
Sam Bankman-Fried 於2019 年創立 FTX 平台，為何FTX 能如此快速地在短短數年間躋身全球數位資產交易所的前列？相信原因離不開他的教授父母。 Sam 的父親在史丹福法律學院專攻稅法（tax law），母親則是研究法律倫理學（legal ethics）方面的領導學者。父母有如此成就，外界普遍認為他們的兒子也會是天資聰穎的學霸、非一般學術能力的天之驕子。因此，Sam 在創業初期便獲得巨大成功。
在美國創業文化裏，尤其是在金融、創新科技領域，「神奇小子」絕不罕有。在美國矽谷就有不少創業家是從大學中途輟學創業，並闖出一片天。「神奇小子」的著名例子有從哈佛大學退學後創立微軟（Microsoft） 的比爾蓋茨（Bill Gates）和同樣從哈佛大學退學並創立 facebook（現為Meta）的朱克伯格（Mark Zuckerberg）等。
當然，並非所有人都可以當「神奇小子」。史丹福大學就曾出過一名輟學創業的金融詐騙犯Elizabeth Holmes，她從史丹福化學工程系退學後創立了曾為獨角獸企業的血液檢測公司Theranos，並聲稱研發了一種新的血液檢測技術，只需要小量血液樣本便可檢測患者是否患有癌症。後來，Theranos 的產品技術受到質疑，被揭發全為騙局。Elizabeth Holmes 最終被判罪名成立並入獄。
說回FTX 騙案，在案件開審之際，許多報道均在探討Sam 的父母是否有參與其中；若有，他們的角色又如何？下文再續。
The True and False wonder boy
Let's continue discussing the FTX cryptocurrency trading platform scam. As mentioned earlier, the central figure in this case is Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder and CEO of FTX. It is worth noting that both of Sam's parents are professors at Stanford Law School. Sam's innovative platform coin, FTT, is the native token of FTX. According to reports, at its peak, FTX's market value reached $32 billion.
Sam Bankman-Fried founded FTX in 2019, and the question arises: how did FTX manage to quickly rise to the top of global digital asset exchanges in just a few years? The answer probably lies with his professor parents. Sam's father specializes in tax law at Stanford Law School, while his mother is a leading scholar in legal ethics. With such accomplished parents, it is widely believed that their son would be a gifted academic and extraordinary individual. Therefore, Sam achieved tremendous success early on in his entrepreneurial journey.
In the culture of entrepreneurship in the United States, especially in the realms of finance and innovative technology,‘’wonder boy‘’ are not uncommon. Silicon Valley, in particular, has seen numerous entrepreneurs who dropped out of university and went on to achieve great success. Bill Gates, who dropped out of Harvard University and founded Microsoft, and Mark Zuckerberg, who also dropped out of Harvard and founded Facebook (now Meta), are famous examples of such ‘’wonder boy‘’.
Of course, not everyone can become a ’wonder boy‘’. Stanford University has seen its fair share of financial fraudsters who dropped out of school, such as Elizabeth Holmes. After dropping out of Stanford's chemical engineering department, she founded Theranos, a blood testing company that was once hailed as a unicorn enterprise. Holmes claimed to have developed a new blood testing technology that could detect cancer with just a small blood sample. However, Theranos' product technology was later called into question and exposed as a fraudulent scheme. Elizabeth Holmes was ultimately convicted and sentenced to prison.
Returning to the FTX scam, as the case goes to trial, many reports are exploring whether Sam's parents were involved and, if so, what roles they played. The following paragraphs will delve into this matter further.
隨着中秋、國慶、杭州亞運，以及夜繽紛等一系列活動，社會氣氛一片喜慶祥和，誠是美事。不過，我們不要忘記，喜慶之下，社會上仍有很多問題有待解決，其中，我關注大學早前爆出的迎新營風化案，因為那不是個人或單一事件，也不是拘捕了涉案人便了事，其所反映的教育及治安問題，影響深遠。
今年爆出的教育大學迎新營醜聞，警方接獲5名女生報案，拘捕了一名28歲男子。報道指該名男子是教大四年級非全日制學生，該男子於兩個月內參加了6個迎新營，涉嫌強姦、性侵及偷窺幾名女生，警方控以兩項非禮罪及一項窺淫罪；更令人驚訝的是，報道指該名男子本身涉及今年初另一宗網友見面非禮案，所作所為非常惡劣。
此外，有傳香港大學迎新營懷疑有學生吸食大麻，也有傳近年的迎新營會招募校外男性參加，我認為警方、校方都必須正視，嚴查究竟。
品德教育失敗 大學管治寬鬆令人痛心的是，今年這宗並非首宗迎新營風化案。翻查資料，過去多年爆出過多宗迎新營醜聞，由指遊戲三級、色情，到性騷擾、性侵案件都有，包括2019年中大迎新營期間有28歲無業男子闖入宿舍非禮兩名熟睡女生、2018年中大迎新營爆出有男新生非禮高年級女生、2013年嶺南大學19歲男生玩遊戲時觸摸兩名女生胸部等等。
迎新營醜聞的情節愈來愈嚴重，已達違法的地步，我認為至少反映兩大問題：
一、過去教改、新高中學制過度側重DSE文憑試的成績，此消彼長下，中學未及重視學生的品德培養。中學階段品德及法治教育失敗，部分年輕人道德觀念及守法意識薄弱，誤以為大學是法外之地，亦錯誤理解自由，以為讀大學便得自由，可隨意和異性有親密接觸，甚至做出傷害他人或違法的事情。
二、大學管治寬鬆，管理層可能想「做好人」或者「愛護學生」，從而放鬆對學生活動的監管，多年來未有汲取教訓，加強對迎新營和對學生行為的監督。
我是香港大學畢業生，1969-1972年間就讀港大英文系，是Lady Ho Tung Hall（何東夫人紀念堂）的走讀生。那些年的大學迎新營算得上多姿多彩，有港大學生會辦的，也有系會及宿舍辦的，而且活動十分健康，例如由The Old Halls（明原堂）行山上山頂、Ricci Hall（利瑪竇宿舍）男生過來送花、「搶Gong（銅鑼）」等等，現在回想都覺得生動、有趣，增加了我對港大的投入感；絕非近年那些三級、越界的所謂「遊戲」可比。
新生抱着對大學生活的憧憬來參加迎新營，結果卻懷上難堪的回憶，我想這也非大學之道，不是社會願見，大學管理層怎能坐視不理？
美國大學嚴監管 便衣警巡邏大學迎新不是香港獨有，世界各地知名學府都有舉辦迎新活動，例如美國史丹福大學便有一些很受歡迎的迎新活動，三藩市尋寶（San Francisco scavenger hunt）和樂隊步操（marching band）等等，都是健康有活力的團建活動。
據我了解，美國很多大學的迎新活動都有相關規管，學生議會派出督導員（procter）巡查，確保活動守法守規。一些大學例如史丹福大學校園內設有警署，會有便衣警員在校園內巡邏，他們特別關注大學生酗酒及吸毒問題，因此會特別監督迎新營、球賽等大型活動。
不知道大家有沒有看過2010年的荷李活電影《社交網絡》（The Social Network）？電影講述朱克伯格（Mark Zuckerberg）創辦facebook的故事，電影中有提及主角就讀哈佛大學，加入兄弟會和姊妹會（Fraternities and Sororities），會有玩新生的欺凌（hazing）或惡作劇（ragging）行為，例如要新生捉雞、吞生雞蛋等等。
現實上，別以為這些行為是無限制或無監管的，我便聽說過有活動是要求同學蒙着眼走路，因涉及安全，遭到投訴，結果主辦活動的同學受到校方懲罰，可見美國大學對迎新活動有相應規管，香港的大學管理層應該好好參考、仿效。
回說香港的大學迎新營問題，我認為教育局、中學及大學教育界均責無旁貸，需合力糾正：
一、必須加強品德及法治教育，讓學生從細培養正確的價值觀、良好的品德，以及明白遵守法律的重要性、知道違法要承擔後果。習近平總書記在「二十大」報告強調：「教育是國之大計」、「育人的根本在於立德」，並非虛言。品德教育辦得好，長遠而言能提升整個社會的道德水平，影響並非減少一兩宗迎新營醜聞那麼簡單。
教局呈文件 列院校應對措施
二、大學管理層必須挺直腰骨，正視問題，加強對迎新營及其他學生活動的規管，例如加強校方代表的參與程度、向全體學生發出指引列明規則、校方加強巡查等等。預防必定勝於治療，校方必須向學生傳遞嚴格清楚的信息，愛護學生不等如放任他們，成功的迎新活動能展現大學風貌，社會對大學生有高期望，而這些並不能透過色情或違法行為達致。若發生違法事件，絕不姑息。
執筆時得悉教育局剛向立法會教育事務委員會提交文件《大學學生主導活動的管理及品德教育》（立法會CB(4)867/2023(03)號文件），列出各大學大專院校的應對措施，我認為方向正確。
最後，家長亦可多提點子女，提高警惕，若他們在大學迎新營期間受到騷擾，或者對某些遊戲安排感到不舒服，寧可退出；若不幸遇上性侵等事件，報警處理。
University Governance Needs Improvement: Eliminating Scandals in Freshmen Orientation Camps
Amidst the festive atmosphere brought by the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day, the Hangzhou Asian Games, and various other events, it is indeed a joyous occasion. However, we must not forget that beneath the celebrations, there are still many unresolved issues in society. Among them, I am concerned about the recent scandals that emerged in freshmen orientation camps at universities. This is not merely an isolated incident or a matter that can be resolved by apprehending the individuals involved. The problems it reflects regarding education and public safety have far-reaching implications.
This year, an education university was hit with an ugly scandal during its freshmen orientation camp. The police received reports from five female students and arrested a 28-year-old male suspect. According to reports, the suspect was a part-time student in his fourth year at the university and had participated in six orientation camps within a two-month period. He was accused of rape, sexual assault, and voyeurism against several female students. The police charged him with two counts of indecent assault and one count of voyeurism. What is even more shocking is that the reports indicate the suspect was involved in another incident of misconduct with an online acquaintance earlier this year, demonstrating his despicable behavior.
Furthermore, there have been rumors of suspected drug use by students during freshmen orientation camps at Hong Kong University, as well as reports of recruiting male outsiders to participate in orientation camps in recent years. I believe the police and university authorities must take these matters seriously and conduct thorough investigations.
The failure of moral education and lax university governance
It is disheartening that this year's scandal is not the first of its kind in freshmen orientation camps. Upon reviewing the data, numerous scandals have surfaced in recent years, ranging from inappropriate games, pornography, to cases of sexual harassment and assault. Examples include an incident in 2019 at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, where a 28-year-old unemployed man unlawfully entered a dormitory and molested two sleeping female students, as well as an incident in 2018 at the same university where a male freshman assaulted a senior female student during the orientation camp. In 2013, a 19-year-old male student at Lingnan University touched the breasts of two female students while playing a game, among other incidents.
The scenarios in these freshmen orientation camp scandals have become increasingly severe, reaching the point of illegality. I believe they at least reflect two major problems:
Firstly, in the past, educational reforms and the emphasis on the Diploma of Secondary Education (DSE) examination results in the new senior secondary school system have overshadowed the importance of moral education. Moral and legal education during secondary school has failed, resulting in weakened ethical awareness and law-abiding consciousness among some young people. They mistakenly believe that universities are lawless places and have a misguided understanding of freedom, thinking that attending university grants them the freedom to engage in intimate contact with the opposite sex or even commit acts that harm others or break the law.
Secondly, university governance has been lax, possibly due to the management's desire to be "good" or "protective" of the students. Over the years, lessons have not been learned, and there has been a lack of supervision over freshmen orientation camps and student behavior.
As a graduate of the University of Hong Kong, where I attended from 1969 to 1972 as an English major and a non-resident student at Lady Ho Tung Hall, I experienced diverse and vibrant freshmen orientation camps during those years. Some were organized by the student union, while others were organized by departments and dormitories. The activities were wholesome, such as hiking up to Victoria Peak organized by The Old Halls, male students from Ricci Hall bringing flowers, and the "Gong Snatching" tradition. Looking back, I find these memories vivid and enjoyable, enhancing my sense of belonging to HKU. They are in no way comparable to the recent vulgar and boundary-crossing so-called "games."
Freshmen come to participate in orientation camps with dreams of university life, only to end up with embarrassing memories. This is not the path universities should take, nor is it desirable for society. How can university management turn a blind eye to this?
The United States has strict regulation on university activities
including undercover police patrols. Welcome events are not unique to Hong Kong, and famous universities around the world also hold welcoming activities. For example, Stanford University in the United States has popular events such as the San Francisco scavenger hunt and marching band, which are healthy and energetic team building activities.
From what I understand, many universities in the United States have relevant regulations and student councils send proctors to inspect and ensure that activities are lawful and comply with rules. Some universities, such as Stanford University, have police stations on campus and undercover officers patrol the campus. They pay special attention to alcohol and drug problems among students, and therefore closely monitor large events such as welcome camps and sports games.
Have you seen the 2010 Hollywood film "The Social Network"? The film tells the story of Mark Zuckerberg founding Facebook and mentions that the protagonist attended Harvard University and joined fraternities and sororities. These organizations may have hazing or ragging activities, such as making freshmen catch chickens or swallow raw eggs.
In reality, don't think that these activities are unregulated or without restrictions. I have heard of events where students were asked to walk blindfolded and received complaints due to safety concerns. As a result, the students who organized the event were punished by the school. This shows that universities in the United States have corresponding regulations on welcome activities and the management of universities in Hong Kong should learn from and follow their example.
Regarding the issue of welcome camps in Hong Kong universities, I believe that the Education Bureau, secondary schools, and universities all have a responsibility to correct it together:
It is necessary to strengthen moral and legal education, so that students can develop correct values and good character from a young age, and understand the importance of following the law and the consequences of breaking it. General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized in his report at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China that "education is a major national policy" and "the fundamental task of education is to cultivate people with integrity". This is not an empty statement. If moral education is done well, it can improve the moral level of society in the long run, and the impact is not as simple as reducing one or two scandals in welcome camps.
University management must stand tall, face the problem squarely, and strengthen regulations on welcome camps and other student activities. For example, increasing the involvement of school representatives, issuing guidelines to all students outlining the rules, and increasing patrols by the school. Prevention is better than cure, and the school must send a strict and clear message to students. Caring for students is not the same as letting them do whatever they want. A successful welcome activity can showcase the university's image, and society has high expectations for university students, which cannot be achieved through pornography or illegal activities. If a crime occurs, it will not be tolerated.
I learned that the Education Bureau has just submitted the document "Management and Moral Education of Student-led Activities in Universities" (Legislative Council CB(4)867/2023(03)) to the Education Panel of the Legislative Council, which lists the measures that various universities and colleges should take. I think the direction is correct.
Finally, parents can also remind their children to be more vigilant. If they are harassed during welcome camps or feel uncomfortable with certain games, it is better to withdraw. If they unfortunately encounter incidents such as sexual assault, they should report to the police.