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Hong Kong, Macau can grow China’s appeal in age of US containment
文章
2024 年 12 月 29 日
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Hong Kong has plodded through another challenging year with some hits and misses. On the downside, economic growth is forecast to slow to 2.5 per cent. Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po also expects the fiscal deficit to exceed HK$100 billion (US$12.8 billion). His admission drove home the fact that the government has, for all the clawbacks from the Housing Authority’s reserve and bond issuance, been effectively running a deficit since 2019.
This raises the alarm that Hong Kong could be facing a structural deficit, with heightened risks of a credit rating downgrade and attacks on the Hong Kong dollar. All eyes are on Chan’s next budget to see if he would take decisive action to return Hong Kong to fiscal health.
The good news is the government has met many of the work targets it has set to “grab” talent and attract strategic enterprises. Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu recently revealed that the number of offices in Hong Kong with parent companies elsewhere had increased by 10 per cent this year. Meanwhile, 66 strategic enterprises have set up shop in Hong Kong or are expanding their presence here, half of which are industry leaders. Hong Kong now boasts over 2,700 family offices.
Thanks to the admission of over 100,000 professionals under its talent schemes, Hong Kong’s population is back above 7.5 million, where it was before the relaxation of the immigration schemes of several Western countries led to a substantial brain drain.
Hong Kong’s ranking in various international surveys has improved. Hong Kong beat Singapore to regain the third position in the latest edition of the Global Financial Centres Index. Its competitiveness and talent rankings have also risen. These improvements show the government’s efforts in reinvigorating the economy have not gone unrecognised.
The Hang Seng Index also recovered. It bounced back in September and has been hovering at the 20,000-21,000 level with heavier trading, generating much-needed revenue for the government from stamp duties on stock transactions.
Since December 1, following the resumption of multiple-entry visit permits to Shenzhen residents, much larger crowds of tourists from mainland China are visible, adding to the city’s festive spirit and helping to lift the depressed retail sector.
The question is whether these efforts are sufficient to ensure Hong Kong’s economic security and global position when the “America first” Trump presidency seems hell-bent on expanding American power by weakening China and upturning the world order.
It is not clear whether the gathering of storm clouds was on President Xi Jinping’s mind when he met Lee earlier this month for the latter’s annual work report. In addition to praising Lee for accomplishing the historic feat of enacting local legislation to implement Article 23 of the Basic Law and resolving housing, public health and other livelihood problems, the official press release issued after the meeting was noteworthy for embedding in the text high expectations of Lee in leading Hong Kong in support of China’s next stage of development.
For the first time, Lee was praised for having “strengthened external exchanges and cooperation, and continuously enhanced Hong Kong’s international prestige”. Lee was also urged to “double down on reform” – a message previously sent by Xia Baolong, director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office, during his meeting last month with Hong Kong business leaders – and to “create new economic momentum and advantages”.
Similar messages were repeated in Xi’s keynote speech in Macau on December 20 to celebrate the 25th anniversary of Macau’s reunification and the installation of the sixth-term chief executive, but with greater clarity and urgency.
Macau was also praised for “greatly enhancing its international influence” and urged to “double down on reform”. Both Hong Kong and Macau need to diversify their economies and are seen as having a role to play in enhancing China’s influence through their Western heritage and connectivity.
Particularly significant is Xi’s repeated affirmation of “one country, two systems” as a “good system” that should be firmly adhered to. He also spelled out four principles for ensuring its continued success. The first is recognition of the country as the bedrock of the system and its distinct advantages, a dictum much reiterated in the past.
Secondly, both Hong Kong Macau are urged to maintain a high standard of national security and achieve “high quality” development.
Thirdly, a new point was made, which is now placed on the front burner – to “strengthen internal and external connections, adopting a more open and inclusive attitude to extensively develop international relations, raise international influence and appeal”, and “better play a bridging role in the latest configuration of the country’s scheme of development”.
Finally, Hong Kong and Macau are to spread the core Chinese values of tolerance and harmony, and promote the diversity and convergence of different cultures.
The first two points have been repeated often but the other two, with their new emphasis on international influence and the promotion of Chinese values, are significant additions to the tasks given to the two special administrative regions.
Beijing knows it is entering an age of make-or-break competition with the United States. President-elect Donald Trump seems poised to enter the White House armed with plans to throttle China’s growth. International connectivity is seen as being as critical as ever. For China to break out of a US-led containment, both Hong Kong and Macau have a pivotal role to play to bridge divides.
The official responses from both cities provide few clues of their recognition of this new mission. But Hong Kong has always lived by its connectivity and openness, and the business, academic and political leaders are ready to play their part.
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香港目前的經濟增長未如理想，政府去年10 月公布，2024 年首三季合計的本地生產總值較2023 年同期僅實質上升2.6%；而近日財政司長則公開表示，財政赤字近1000 億元，有專家指出，若非計入發行了1300 億的債券，財赤其實達2300 億。
經濟學家經常提及推動本港經濟有「三頭馬車」（即出口、消費額、整體投資），雖然香港整體的貨物出口量及整體投資開支都有所增長，但消費額卻持續下跌。要實現收支平衡，特區政府既需採取果斷措施「滅赤」，也要妥善運用現有資源推動經濟發展，刺激消費，特區政府大力推動盛事經濟及爭取中央重新啟動內地居民「一簽多行」，的確令人流有所增長。
1997 年，香港遇上亞洲金融風暴，經濟低迷，特區政府一度考慮推動醫療產業來刺激經濟。2009 年，特區政府更把醫療產業納入「六大優勢產業」，但多年來未見有顯著的實際發展。
理論上，香港是有條件發展醫療產業的。香港中文大學和香港大學的醫學院均於全球醫學領域享有較高名次（排名28 及31）；同時擁有不少研發專家和人才；在一些專科領域，香港的診治技術更是世界一流。
2009 年，特區政府預留4 幅分別位於黃竹坑、將軍澳、大埔及大嶼山的土地用於發展私營醫院。其中，位於黃竹坑的港怡醫院及在馬料水的香港中文大學醫院均已落成並投入服務。不過，香港中文大學醫院因營運收益未如理想，已向特區政府申請延遲償還政府貸款。
我的行會同僚陳智思曾向我提及，他的家族在泰國經營的泰國康民醫院（Bumrungrad International Hospital），相當成功，有「泰版養和醫院」之稱。他認為香港缺乏土地及醫護人手，較難像泰國那樣發展醫療產業。至於泰國為何能蓬勃發展醫療產業，讓我們下回分解。
Does Hong Kong Have Advantages in Developing the Medical Industry? (Part 1)
Hong Kong's current economic growth has not been as ideal. The government announced last October that the GDP value for the first three quarters of 2024 had only increased by 2.6% compared to the same period in 2023. Recently, the Financial Secretary publicly stated that the fiscal deficit is close to 100 billion Hong Kong dollars. Experts have pointed out that if the issuance of 130 billion in bonds is not taken into account, the actual deficit would be 230 billion.
Economists often mention the three pillars for driving the local economy, namely exports, consumption, and overall investment. While Hong Kong has seen growth in both total merchandise exports and overall investment spending, consumption has continued to decline. To achieve fiscal balance, the SAR government needs to take decisive measures to address the deficit and effectively utilize existing resources to drive economic development and stimulate consumption. The SAR government is vigorously promoting event-based economics and striving for the re-initiation of the "multiple entry permit" for mainland residents, which has indeed led to an increase in visitor numbers.
In 1997, Hong Kong faced the Asian financial crisis, which led to an economic downturn. The SAR government once considered promoting the medical industry to stimulate the economy. In 2009, the SAR government even included the medical industry in the "six major advantageous industries," but there has been no significant practical development over the years.
In theory, Hong Kong has the conditions to develop the medical industry. The medical schools at the Chinese University of Hong Kong and the University of Hong Kong both enjoy high rankings in the global medical field (28th and 31st, respectively). Hong Kong also has many research and development experts and talents, and in some specialized fields, its diagnostic and treatment techniques are world-class.
In 2009, the SAR government reserved four plots of land in Wong Chuk Hang, Tseung Kwan O, Tai Po, and Lantau Island for the development of private hospitals. Among them, the the Gleneagles Hospital in Wong Chuk Hang and the Chinese University Hospital in Ma Liu Shui have been completed and put into service. However, the Chinese University Hospital has applied to the SAR government for a delay in repaying government loans due to lower-than-expected operational revenue.
My colleague, Bernard Charnwut Chan, once mentioned to me that his family operates the Bumrungrad International Hospital in Thailand, which is quite successful and known as the "Thai version of Hong Kong Sanatorium & Hospital." He believes that Hong Kong lacks land and healthcare personnel, making it more challenging to develop the medical industry like Thailand. As for why Thailand has been able to thrive in developing the medical industry, let's delve into that next time.
前文提到，我於聖誕假期到泰國曼谷度假，發現當地的旅遊業發展蓬勃。報道指，截至2024 年12 月，泰國全年共吸引超過3500 萬人次造訪。我認為泰國之所以能夠成為世界知名的旅遊勝地，以及吸引港人遊客，其中一大主因在於它的人力資源及土地價值遠較香港要低，令其可以較低的消費物價吸引遊客。
首先，泰國的年輕人口比例較高。泰國目前人口約為7000 萬，年齡中位數為39 歲，勞動人口（15 歲至64 歲）佔約68%（約4760 萬人）；反觀香港的人口只有約750 萬，年齡中位數為46歲，勞動人口佔約51%（約383 萬人）。受惠於充足的勞動人口，泰國的人均工資低於香港，優良的性價比令當地服務業發展也相當發達。以港人喜愛的按摩服務為例，旅行期間我光顧一家園林式按摩店，3 人按摩兩個小時只收費1400港元（且毋須打賞），這比香港便宜許多，十分超值。
第二，泰國的土地價值均低於香港，使得整體成本較低。據報道，在清邁購置一片建屋面積約63,000 呎的土地，分成12 戶，每戶土地約4300 呎，一塊土地售價約35 萬港元。相比之下，假設要在香港購置一片同樣面積的土地，價格可能是泰國的數十倍。較低的地價降低了房地產項目的成本，使得新開設的商場可在不急於即時回本的前提下逐步發展。
最後，以人文資源來說，泰國以其開放和包容的社會氛圍，成為全球遊客眼中的獨特魅力之地。例如，同性婚姻的合法化，以及一年一度吸引了3 萬人參加的White Party 都是泰國與眾不同的特色。隨着旅客在疫後的消費模式出現轉變，傳說的消費旅遊已較難吸引新一代旅客。我認為香港不妨仿效泰國，透過舉辦類似的活動，來打造香港的旅遊名片。事實上，香港於2023 年曾舉辦首次在亞洲舉行的同志界國際盛事「同樂運動會」。我認為類似的活動既能彰顯香港包容多元的價值，還有助於擴大香港的旅遊市場，政府應考慮多加舉辦。
Decoding the Competitiveness of Tourism in Thailand
As mentioned earlier, I holidayed in Bangkok, Thailand during the Christmas break and found that the local tourism industry is thriving. Reports indicate that by December 2024, Thailand had attracted over 35 million visitors throughout the year. I believe that one of the main reasons Thailand has become a world-renowned tourist destination and attracts visitors from Hong Kong is due to its lower human resources and land values compared to Hong Kong, which allows it to attract tourists with lower consumption prices.
Firstly, Thailand has a higher proportion of young people. With a current population of around 70 million, Thailand has a median age of 39, and the labor force (aged 15 to 64) accounts for about 68% (approximately 47.6 million people); in contrast, Hong Kong's population is only about 7.5 million, with a median age of 46, and the labor force accounts for about 51% (approximately 3.83 million people). Benefiting from an abundant labor force, Thailand's average wages are lower than Hong Kong's, and the excellent value for money has led to a well-developed local service industry. For example, during my trip, I visited a garden-style massage parlor where a 2-hour massage for three people cost only HK$1,400 (without the need for tips), which is much cheaper than Hong Kong and very cost-effective.
Secondly, land values in Thailand are lower than in Hong Kong, resulting in lower overall costs. According to reports, purchasing a piece of land in Chiang Mai with a building area of about 63,000 square feet, divided into 12 units with each unit having around 4,300 square feet of land, costs approximately HK$350,000 per unit. In comparison, purchasing a piece of land of the same size in Hong Kong could be tens of times more expensive than in Thailand. Lower land prices reduce the costs of real estate projects, allowing newly opened malls to gradually develop without the immediate need to recoup investments.
Lastly, in terms of cultural resources, Thailand's open and inclusive social atmosphere has made it a unique and charming destination in the eyes of global tourists. For example, the legalization of same-sex marriage and the annual White Party, which attracts 30,000 participants, are distinctive features of Thailand. As post-pandemic consumer patterns among travelers shift, the legendary concept of consumption tourism may find it challenging to attract the new generation of travelers. I believe that Hong Kong could follow Thailand's example by organizing similar events to create a tourism hallmark for Hong Kong. In fact, Hong Kong hosted the first-ever Gay Games in Asia in 2023. I think similar events not only showcase Hong Kong's inclusive values but also help expand Hong Kong's tourism market, which the government should consider hosting more of.
交稿時恰逢元旦，新年伊始，我先祝各位讀者2025 年事事順心，平安喜樂。
我在前文建議透過檢視、理順並適當刪減及整合目前眾多有時限首長級編外職位，減輕首長級公務員的人手壓力。
除了政府內部的職責分工，我認為特區政府在人事的任命上亦有檢視空間。由於政務官是管理通才，工作涉及不同政策範疇，政府內部往往會委任政務官或前政務官作政府部門或公營機構管理層，但缺點是政務官或缺少該範疇的相關資歷和經驗，導致部門或機構職能難以完全發揮。
比方說，特區政府於2022 年成立香港投資管理有限公司（港投公司），以積極推進在創新科技領域的直接及共同投資。在物色管理層時，特區政府根據外匯基金諮詢委員會轄下管治委員會建議，委任一位前政務官出任行政總裁。
作為負責推動香港投資的機構，我認為其行政總裁宜選擇投資有道、懂得如何為機構帶來盈利的「操盤手」。雖然獲委任人選亦曾任職金管局，惟其工作主要負責監察及維持金融市場及貨幣穩定，較少涉獵投資工作。雖然機構的實際投資毋須其親自執行，但由監管人員出任行政總裁，機構的投資策略能否做到積極有為，仍然有待觀察。
另一個例子則是新聞處長的人選。新聞處作為政府的公共關係顧問，負責政府的出版、宣傳片及新聞工作，並透過傳媒向市民宣傳政策，以提高市民對政府工作的認識。鑑於其職責需要長期與傳媒界打交道，回歸前新聞處長多由專業新聞官出任。自從最後一任由專業新聞官晉升的處長丘李賜恩於1997 年離任後，新聞處長便由政務官擔任。雖然政務官熟悉政府運作，但他們欠缺傳媒背景，加上經常調任，較難與傳媒建立深厚關係，使得新聞處較難發揮原有職能。
我認為，政府宜盡快為專業性較強的職位培養專才，以擺脫依賴政務官的情况，從而優化整體的人力資源規劃。
Government Personnel Management Should Focus on Specialization
Submitting this article coincides with New Year's Day, at the beginning of the new year, I would like to wish all readers a smooth and joyful 2025.
In a previous article, I suggested that by reviewing, streamlining, and appropriately reducing and integrating the numerous time-limited senior non-established positions, the pressure on senior civil servants could be alleviated.
In addition to the division of responsibilities within the government, I believe there is room for the SAR government to review its personnel appointments. As administrative officers are generalists in management, their work involves different policy areas. The government often appoints administrative officers or former administrative officers to manage government departments or public entities. However, the drawback is that administrative officers may lack the relevant qualifications and experience in a specific field, leading to difficulties in fully utilizing the functions of the department or organization.
For example, in 2022, the SAR government established the Hong Kong Investment Corporation Limited (HKIC) to actively promote direct and joint investments in the field of innovative technology. When selecting the management team, the SAR government appointed a former administrative officer as the Chief Executive Officer based on the recommendation of the Governance Committee under the Exchange Fund Advisory Committee.
As an organization responsible for promoting investments in Hong Kong, I believe that the Chief Executive Officer should be a skilled "trader" who knows how to bring profits to the organization through investments. Although the appointee has also served in the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, his work mainly involved overseeing and maintaining financial market and monetary stability, with less involvement in investment work. While the actual investments of the organization do not require his personal execution, having a regulator serve as the Chief Executive Officer raises questions about whether the organization's investment strategy can be proactive and effective.
Another example is the selection of the Director of Information Services. As a public relations consultant for the government, the Information Services Department is responsible for the government's publications, promotional videos, and news work, and communicates government policies to the public through the media to enhance public awareness of government work. Given the long-term interaction with the media required by the position, prior to the handover, the Director of Information Services was mainly filled by professional journalists. Since the departure of the last Director promoted from a professional Information Officer, Irene Yau, in 1997, the position has been held by administrative officers. While administrative officers are familiar with government operations, they lack a media background and, due to frequent transfers, find it challenging to establish strong relationships with the media, making it difficult for the Information Services Department to fulfill its original functions.
I believe that the government should promptly cultivate specialists for positions that require a stronger level of expertise to break away from the reliance on administrative officers, thereby optimizing the overall human resources planning.
前文提及，政府近年出現「資深AO荒」。其中主因在於政務職系薪酬架構失序，未能緊貼私營市場，令不少資深政務官（administrativeofficer,AO）紛紛轉換跑道，離開政府到公營機構及私營企業「搵真銀」。
雖然政府短期內的確可透過加快政務官晉升速度並反聘退休公務員短暫填補空缺，但有關做法終究是治標不治本。長遠而言，我認為政府應檢視及理順政務職系的薪酬架構，確保政務官職位具市場競爭力，才能挽留優秀人才。
相對地，隨着香港人口老化，很多原本適齡退休的政務官才是經驗寶藏。政府於今年11月公布的《2023年人力推算報告》預計，香港65歲以上人口到2028年時將達到約208萬人，佔總人口比例約28%。
隨着醫學進步，65歲這年齡段的人士正值壯年，身體健康狀况仍可勝任政務官的工作。因此，我認為政府應善用他們的經驗和能力，研究延遲政務官的退休年齡限制。
現時，政府一直有透過「退休後服務合約計劃」聘請退休公務員去協助處理具時限性的工作。我認為，既然政府難以一下子提拔大量政務官擔任要職，需要反聘退休公務員去減輕人手壓力，不妨透過延長資深政務官的服務年期，爭取時間培養中層政務官累積經驗，以切實解決政務官團隊青黃不接的問題。
我向政府提議多年，應從檢視紀律部隊退休年齡着手，逐步推遲公務員團隊的退休年齡。須知道「人才荒」並非政府獨有，而是困擾香港全社會的問題。政府作為香港最大的僱主，若能做好榜樣，既能解決「資深AO荒」的問題，又能為私營市場起到帶頭作用，可謂兩全其美。
Research on Delaying the Retirement Age of Senior AOs
As mentioned earlier, the government has been facing a "senior AO shortage" in recent years. The primary reason for this lies in the skewed salary structure within the Administrative Grade, which has failed to keep pace with the private market. This has led many senior Administrative Officers (AOs) to switch tracks, leaving the government to seek better financial opportunities in public organizations and private enterprises.
While the government can indeed expedite the promotion speed of Administrative Officers in the short term and re-employ retired civil servants to temporarily fill vacancies, these measures are ultimately addressing the symptoms rather than the root cause. In the long run, I believe the government should review and streamline the salary structure within the Administrative Grade to ensure that positions for Administrative Officers are competitive in the market to retain top talent.
Conversely, with the aging population in Hong Kong, many government officials who were previously at retirement age are a treasure trove of experience. According to the "2023 Manpower Projection" report released by the government in November this year, it is estimated that the population aged 65 and above in Hong Kong will reach approximately 2.08 million by 2028, accounting for around 28% of the total population.
With advancements in medical technology, individuals at the age of 65 are in their prime years with good health conditions, making them still capable of fulfilling the duties of Administrative Officers. Therefore, I suggest that the government should leverage their experience and capabilities by researching the possibility of delaying the retirement age limit for government officials.
Currently, the government has been utilizing the "post-retirement service contract scheme" to hire retired civil servants to assist with time-limited tasks. Since it may be challenging for the government to promote a large number of Administrative Officers to key positions all at once and there is a need to re-employ retired civil servants to alleviate manpower pressure, extending the service tenure of senior Administrative Officers could provide time to cultivate mid-level officers and accumulate experience, effectively addressing the issue of the shortage of Administrative Officers.
I have long proposed to the government that they should start by reviewing the retirement age of disciplined forces and gradually extend the retirement age of the civil service team. It is important to understand that the "talent shortage" is not unique to the government but a problem that affects the entire Hong Kong society. As the largest employer in Hong Kong, if the government can set a good example, it can not only solve the issue of the "senior AO shortage" but also lead the way for the private market, achieving a win-win situation for all.
近年， 資深政務官（administrative officer, AO）的流失率持續高企，「資深AO 荒」成為特區政府不得不面對的結構性問題。鑑於政府官員需要對香港整體情况、政策細節以至政府內部運作「熟書」，難以透過政治任命方式委任外部人士出任有關職位。
短期來說，較為可行的做法是加快政務官的晉升速度，同時透過既有的「退休後服務合約計劃」繼續聘用退休公務員處理臨時、有時限、季節性或兼職工作，以確保公務員團隊的經驗知識得以傳承。
我認為政務職系薪酬架構「賺頭蝕尾」是造成「AO 荒」的主要原因。目前，新入職政務官屬薪級表第27 點至第44 點，最低月薪是61,865 元。政府以高薪吸引優才入職本來無可厚非，但是政務官的入職薪酬高達6 萬元並不合理。
須知道政務官屬通才，初入職的資歷與私營企業的管理培訓生（management trainee, MT）無異。環顧市場，大部分企業管理培訓生的薪酬大約2 萬至4萬元。即使如亞馬遜等大型跨國企業，管理培訓生的薪酬大約5 萬。
而且隨着職位升遷，資深政務官的薪酬卻無法與公營機構及私營企業相比。比方說，西九文化管理局總裁的年薪超過600 萬，而公務員團隊最高級的常秘年薪則為396 萬。相比之下，外界的薪酬確實更為吸引。
現在首長級公務員是政務官流失的重災區，政府應聚焦研究如何挽留這些資深人才。我建議政府從檢視政務職系的薪級表入手，逐步理順政務官的薪酬福利待遇。例如降低初入職政務官的薪酬，將財政資源調配予資深政務官，以保持資深政務官的薪酬在市場上的競爭力，吸引他們留在政府工作，服務市民。
Retaining Senior Administrative Officers
In recent years, the attrition rate of senior Administrative Officers (AOs) has remained high, leading to a "senior AO shortage" that has become a structural issue the SAR government must address. Given that government officials need to be well-versed in the overall situation of Hong Kong, policy details, and internal government operations, it is challenging to appoint external individuals to these positions through political appointments.
In the short term, a more feasible approach is to expedite the promotion speed of Administrative Officers while continuing to employ retired civil servants through the existing "post-retirement service contract scheme" to handle temporary, time-bound, seasonal, or part-time work to ensure the transfer of experience and knowledge within the civil service team.
I believe that the "front-end loaded" salary structure of the Administrative Grade is a primary reason for the "AO shortage." Currently, newly recruited Administrative Officers fall within salary points 27 to 44, with a minimum monthly salary of HK$61,865. While it is understandable for the government to attract top talents with high salaries, an entry-level salary of up to HK$60,000 for Administrative Officers is not reasonable.
It is important to note that Administrative Officers are generalists, and their qualifications upon entry are similar to management trainees in the private sector. Looking at the market, the salaries for most corporate management trainees range from around HK$20,000 to HK$40,000. Even in large multinational corporations like Amazon, management trainees earn approximately HK$50,000.
Furthermore, as senior Administrative Officers progress in their careers, their salaries cannot compete with those offered by public organizations and private enterprises. For example, the CEO of the West Kowloon Cultural District Authority earns an annual salary exceeding HK$6 million, while the highest-ranking Permanent Secretary in the civil service earns HK$3.96 million per year. In comparison, salaries in the private sector are indeed more attractive.
Currently, senior civil servants, particularly at the directorate level, are the hardest hit by the loss of Administrative Officers. The government should focus on researching how to retain these experienced talents. I suggest that the government start by reviewing the salary scale of the Administrative Grade and gradually streamline the salary and benefits for Administrative Officers. For instance, reducing the starting salaries of newly recruited Administrative Officers and reallocating financial resources to senior Administrative Officers to keep their salaries competitive in the market, thereby attracting them to stay in government service and serve the public.
政府問責高官團隊近日出現了兩項人事調動，原運輸及物流局常任秘書長（常秘）陳美寶及原房屋局常秘羅淑佩分別獲任命為新一任運輸及物流局長和文體旅局長。正所謂「新人事、新作風」，社會各界都希望兩位新局長能夠積極作為。
但兩位新局長的上任，亦意味着公務員團隊出現了兩個常秘的職位空缺。目前公務員的退休年齡是60歲，按此估算，2024 年合共會有6位常秘「夠鐘」退休，明年亦預計至少有兩位常秘退下火線。連帶上述的兩個空缺，18 個政策局常秘職位屆時恐出現10 個空缺。
常秘屬首長級薪級表第8 點（D8），是公務員體系中最高的職級。常秘主要負責維持政策局日常運作、協助局長制訂政策並帶領屬下公務員執行，而繼任者則往往從D6 級各部門首長中挑選。
但政府近年出現一股「人才荒」。不少資深AO 或轉換跑道到公營機構及私營企業打拼，或選擇提早退休享受人生。立法會的資料文件顯示，2023/24年度有11.6% 的首長級公務員退休。首長級公務員現時1600 人編制的實際員額只有約1400 人，外界都憂慮政府會否缺乏足夠資歷的資深AO 去出任常秘職位。
實際上，資深AO 青黃不接早見端倪。第4 屆政府於2012 年向立法會提交政府架構重組方案，提出增設兩個新政策局及常秘職位。當時有眼尖的傳媒發現，單2010/11 年度就有多達6 位常秘退休。如要落實重組方案，政府需一口氣提拔5 位D6 級AO。當時，外界亦擔心政府會出現「常秘荒」，惟改組方案最終因未獲得足夠票數遭立法會否決而未能實施。不過當時改組方案不獲通過，某程度上亦延緩了「常秘荒」。
政府「人才荒」的出現有多重原因。其中一個原因在於政務職系的薪酬架構失序、未能緊貼私營市場，對資深AO缺乏吸引力，才導致不少政務官轉換跑道。下期繼續探討港府應如何挽留人才。
The Frequent Reshuffling of Senior Civil Servants
Recently, two personnel changes have occurred within the team of senior government officials responsible for accountability. The former Permanent Secretary for Transport and Logistics, Ms. Mable Chan, and the former Permanent Secretary for Housing, Miss Rosanna Law, have been appointed as the new Secretary for Transport and Logistics and Secretary for Culture, Sports and Tourism, respectively. As the saying goes, "New personnel bring new approaches," and society at large hopes that these two new directors will be proactive in their roles.
However, the appointments of the two new Secretaries also signify vacancies in the positions of two permanent secretaries within the civil service. Currently, the retirement age for civil servants is 60 years old. Based on this estimation, a total of six permanent secretaries are expected to retire in 2024, with at least two permanent secretaries anticipated to retire next year. Along with the aforementioned vacancies, there may be a total of 10 vacancies in the 18 policy bureau permanent secretary positions by that time.
Permanent secretaries are at Point 8 (D8) on the directorate pay scale, the highest rank within the civil service system. They are primarily responsible for overseeing the daily operations of policy bureaus, assisting directors in formulating policies, and leading subordinate civil servants in implementation. Successors to these positions are often selected from directors at the D6 level in various departments.
However, the government has been facing a "talent shortage" in recent years. Many experienced Administrative Officers (AOs) have either transitioned to work in public or private organizations or have opted for early retirement to enjoy life. Data from the Legislative Council indicates that 11.6% of senior civil servants retired in the 2023/24 fiscal year. Currently, the actual number of senior civil servants within the 1600 authorized positions is approximately 1400, leading to concerns from the public about the government potentially lacking sufficiently qualified senior AOs to assume permanent secretary positions.
In reality, signs of a shortage of experienced AOs have been evident for some time. In the government's proposed restructuring of departments and the establishment of two new policy bureaus and permanent secretary positions submitted to the Legislative Council in 2012, it was noted by some observant media outlets that as many as 6 permanent secretaries had retired in the 2010/11 fiscal year alone. To implement this restructuring plan, the government would need to promote 5 D6 level AOs simultaneously. At that time, there were also concerns from the public about a potential "permanent secretary shortage," but the restructuring proposal was ultimately rejected by the Legislative Council due to insufficient votes and was not implemented. However, the failure of the restructuring plan at that time also somewhat delayed the "permanent secretary shortage."
The emergence of a "talent shortage" in the government has multiple causes. One of the reasons is the disorder in the salary structure of the Administrative Grade, which does not align closely with the private market, making it unattractive for senior AOs and leading to many government officials changing their career paths. In the next period, we will continue to explore how the Hong Kong government can retain talent.
上文提到，湯普森槍殺案揭示了美國社會醫療費用高昂和保險公司拒絕理賠的問題。
美國是少數沒有提供全民醫療保險計劃的發達國家，人民需要自掏腰包支付醫療費用。美國的醫療保健系統主要由私人企業擁有和營運，產業鏈包括醫療保險公司、醫療服務供應商、醫院系統和獨立醫療機構等等。數以千計的醫療保險公司銷售各種醫療保險計劃和服務，醫院及醫療服務供應商透過提供服務獲取報酬，醫生、醫院和保險公司之間的關係千絲萬縷。當醫療服務供應商與保險公司達成更高的協議價格時，患者尋求治療的成本便變得更高。
據U.S. PIRG Education Fund 調查，有購買醫療保險的美國民眾呼叫救護車平均需自付450 美元（約3510 港元）至1000 美元（約7800 港元）。若沒保險，費用更可高達1200 美元（約9360 港元）。事實上，據統計資料庫Statista 數據，美國在經濟合作暨發展組織的國家中，人均醫療開支高達12,555 美元（約97,929港元），居於榜首，遠高於第二位瑞士的8049 美元 （約62,782 港元）。高昂的醫療開支導致約1 億美國人深陷醫療債務困境，並成為個人破產的主因。
有分析認為，美國醫療業界和企業聘請大量說客在華盛頓進行游說工作，政客們則因為種種原因不會對抗保險公司和製藥公司的貪婪，導致醫療保險政策難以在國會通過。佛蒙特州參議員桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）提議在長者公共健康保險計劃加入視力、牙科和聽力方面的保障。該建議得到美國84% 民眾支持，但由於業界反對，法案未能在國會通過。桑德斯認為數據反映美國民眾很清楚醫療體系徹底崩壞，他認為仿效其他發達國家實行全民醫保是解決問題的唯一方法。
湯普森槍殺案或許是個別事件，但揭示了美國醫療體制的千瘡百孔。報道指槍擊案發生後，美國保險業界高層人心惶惶，擔心自己會成為下一個目標，或可反映事實的嚴重性。
The Behind Story of the Thompson Shooting (Part 2)
As mentioned earlier, the Thompson shooting incident reveals the issues of high medical costs and insurance claim denials in American society.
The United States is one of the few developed countries without a universal healthcare insurance plan, requiring people to pay for medical expenses out of pocket. The U.S. healthcare system is primarily owned and operated by private enterprises, with the industry chain consisting of health insurance companies, healthcare service providers, hospital systems, and independent medical facilities. Thousands of health insurance companies sell various insurance plans and services, and the relationships between doctors, hospitals, and insurance companies are complex. When healthcare service providers negotiate higher prices with insurance companies, the cost of seeking treatment for patients becomes higher.
According to a study by the U.S. PIRG Education Fund, insured Americans calling for an ambulance have to pay an average of $450 to $1,000. Without insurance, the cost can soar to $1,200. In fact, according to data from Statista, the United States leads in per capita healthcare expenditure among OECD countries, with an average of $12,555, far exceeding Switzerland's $8,049. The high healthcare costs have led approximately 100 million Americans into medical debt and have become a leading cause of personal bankruptcy.
Some analyses suggest that the healthcare industry in the United States employs a large number of lobbyists in Washington, while politicians, for various reasons, do not resist the greed of insurance and pharmaceutical companies, making it difficult for healthcare insurance policies to pass in Congress. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont proposed adding vision, dental, and hearing coverage to the public health insurance plan for seniors. This proposal was supported by 84% of Americans, but due to industry opposition, the bill failed to pass in Congress. Sanders believes that the data reflects a clear collapse of the healthcare system in the United States and sees implementing universal healthcare, similar to other developed countries, as the only solution to the problem.
The Thompson shooting incident may be an isolated event, but it exposes the myriad flaws in the American healthcare system. Reports indicate that following the shooting, top executives in the American insurance industry are feeling uneasy, fearing they might become the next target, which may reflect the seriousness of the situation.
Hong Kong has plodded through another challenging year with some hits and misses. On the downside, economic growth is forecast to slow to 2.5 per cent. Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po also expects the fiscal deficit to exceed HK$100 billion (US$12.8 billion). His admission drove home the fact that the government has, for all the clawbacks from the Housing Authority’s reserve and bond issuance, been effectively running a deficit since 2019.
This raises the alarm that Hong Kong could be facing a structural deficit, with heightened risks of a credit rating downgrade and attacks on the Hong Kong dollar. All eyes are on Chan’s next budget to see if he would take decisive action to return Hong Kong to fiscal health.
The good news is the government has met many of the work targets it has set to “grab” talent and attract strategic enterprises. Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu recently revealed that the number of offices in Hong Kong with parent companies elsewhere had increased by 10 per cent this year. Meanwhile, 66 strategic enterprises have set up shop in Hong Kong or are expanding their presence here, half of which are industry leaders. Hong Kong now boasts over 2,700 family offices.
Thanks to the admission of over 100,000 professionals under its talent schemes, Hong Kong’s population is back above 7.5 million, where it was before the relaxation of the immigration schemes of several Western countries led to a substantial brain drain.
Hong Kong’s ranking in various international surveys has improved. Hong Kong beat Singapore to regain the third position in the latest edition of the Global Financial Centres Index. Its competitiveness and talent rankings have also risen. These improvements show the government’s efforts in reinvigorating the economy have not gone unrecognised.
The Hang Seng Index also recovered. It bounced back in September and has been hovering at the 20,000-21,000 level with heavier trading, generating much-needed revenue for the government from stamp duties on stock transactions.
Since December 1, following the resumption of multiple-entry visit permits to Shenzhen residents, much larger crowds of tourists from mainland China are visible, adding to the city’s festive spirit and helping to lift the depressed retail sector.
The question is whether these efforts are sufficient to ensure Hong Kong’s economic security and global position when the “America first” Trump presidency seems hell-bent on expanding American power by weakening China and upturning the world order.
It is not clear whether the gathering of storm clouds was on President Xi Jinping’s mind when he met Lee earlier this month for the latter’s annual work report. In addition to praising Lee for accomplishing the historic feat of enacting local legislation to implement Article 23 of the Basic Law and resolving housing, public health and other livelihood problems, the official press release issued after the meeting was noteworthy for embedding in the text high expectations of Lee in leading Hong Kong in support of China’s next stage of development.
For the first time, Lee was praised for having “strengthened external exchanges and cooperation, and continuously enhanced Hong Kong’s international prestige”. Lee was also urged to “double down on reform” – a message previously sent by Xia Baolong, director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office, during his meeting last month with Hong Kong business leaders – and to “create new economic momentum and advantages”.
Similar messages were repeated in Xi’s keynote speech in Macau on December 20 to celebrate the 25th anniversary of Macau’s reunification and the installation of the sixth-term chief executive, but with greater clarity and urgency.
Macau was also praised for “greatly enhancing its international influence” and urged to “double down on reform”. Both Hong Kong and Macau need to diversify their economies and are seen as having a role to play in enhancing China’s influence through their Western heritage and connectivity.
Particularly significant is Xi’s repeated affirmation of “one country, two systems” as a “good system” that should be firmly adhered to. He also spelled out four principles for ensuring its continued success. The first is recognition of the country as the bedrock of the system and its distinct advantages, a dictum much reiterated in the past.
Secondly, both Hong Kong Macau are urged to maintain a high standard of national security and achieve “high quality” development.
Thirdly, a new point was made, which is now placed on the front burner – to “strengthen internal and external connections, adopting a more open and inclusive attitude to extensively develop international relations, raise international influence and appeal”, and “better play a bridging role in the latest configuration of the country’s scheme of development”.
Finally, Hong Kong and Macau are to spread the core Chinese values of tolerance and harmony, and promote the diversity and convergence of different cultures.
The first two points have been repeated often but the other two, with their new emphasis on international influence and the promotion of Chinese values, are significant additions to the tasks given to the two special administrative regions.
Beijing knows it is entering an age of make-or-break competition with the United States. President-elect Donald Trump seems poised to enter the White House armed with plans to throttle China’s growth. International connectivity is seen as being as critical as ever. For China to break out of a US-led containment, both Hong Kong and Macau have a pivotal role to play to bridge divides.
The official responses from both cities provide few clues of their recognition of this new mission. But Hong Kong has always lived by its connectivity and openness, and the business, academic and political leaders are ready to play their part.
美國聯合健康保險公司行政總裁湯普森槍殺案嫌疑人曼焦內落網，其背景和履歷引發大量關注。據媒體報道，26 歲的曼焦內出身馬里蘭州一個顯赫家族，畢業於長春藤名校賓夕法尼亞大學，主修電腦科學，畢業後成為一名工程師，妥妥是個富二代，原本前途無量，為何一次衝浪意外就走進另一種人生境遇？
曼焦內的前室友馬丁指出，曼焦內在一次衝浪課背部意外受傷，隨即有網友發現曼焦內曾在社交媒體上留下顯示他脊椎錯位的X 光照片。有醫學教授分析這張X 光片顯示他曾做過脊椎融合手術。曼焦內的一名友人向媒體透露，他在手術康復期間失聯，還試圖以迷幻藥和魔幻蘑菇等來麻醉痛楚。對此，一名消息人士引述曼焦內前同學的話說，他們都覺得曼焦內在經歷手術後，種種磨難迫使他幾近崩潰。
報道指曼焦內被捕當天（12 月9 日），警方在其身上發現一份手寫的「宣言」（manifesto）。《新聞周刊》（Newsweek ）於12 月11 日刊登了這份「宣言」，當中抨擊美國擁有「全世界最昂貴的醫療保健系統」，怒斥「這些公司太強大了，由於美國公眾無法制止它們，讓它們可以繼續虐待我們的國家以獲取巨額利潤」，並堅稱湯普森「這些寄生蟲是應有此報」。弔詭的是，美國網民普遍對遇害的保險公司高層未有表露同情之心，反而引發不少人抱怨曾被該公司拒絕理賠，並將高學歷疑兇的行為視為「替天行道」，甚至「讚賞有加」。
這次槍殺案的導火線是曼焦內與保險公司糾纏的過程中，深切體會到弱勢群體面對巨無霸保險公司的徬徨、無助和痛苦。曼焦內的「宣言」反映了美國深層次的社會問題，包括美國人對費用高昂、效率低下的美國醫療體制的不滿，亦有意見認為美國醫療保健系統的功能不是提供高品質的醫療服務，而是為製藥公司和保險公司賺取巨額利潤。要深入了解這個問題，或許需要由美國現時的醫療情况說起，讓我們下回分解。
The Behind Story of the Thompson Shooting (Part 1) / 湯普森槍殺案的背後（一）
The arrest of the suspect in the shooting of Brian Thompson, the CEO of UnitedHealthcare, has sparked significant attention to his background and resume. According to media reports, the 26-year-old suspect, Luigi Nicholas Mangione, comes from a prominent family in Maryland and graduated from the Ivy League school, the University of Pennsylvania, majoring in computer science. After graduation, he became an engineer, seemingly a second-generation affluent individual with a promising future. So why did he end up in a different life circumstance after a surfing accident?
Mangione's former roommate Martin pointed out that Mangione suffered a back injury in a surfing class, followed by online revelations of X-ray images showing his misaligned spine. Medical professors analyzing these X-rays indicated that he had undergone spinal fusion surgery. A friend of Mangione revealed to the media that he lost contact during his recovery from surgery and attempted to numb the pain with hallucinogens and magic mushrooms. A source cited statements from Mangione's former classmates, stating that they all felt Mangione was on the verge of a breakdown due to the various hardships he faced after the surgery.
Reports indicate that on the day of Mangione's arrest (December 9th), the police found a handwritten "manifesto" on him. Newsweek published this "manifesto" on December 11th, criticizing the United States for having the "most expensive healthcare system in the world" and condemning the "overpowering companies" that, due to the inability of the American public to stop them, continue to exploit the country for huge profits. He firmly stated that Thompson and these "parasites" deserved what happened to them. Ironically, American netizens generally showed little sympathy towards the slain insurance company executive, instead sparking complaints from many who had been denied claims by the company, viewing the suspect's actions as "avenging" and even "praiseworthy."
The catalyst for this shooting incident lies in Mangione's entanglement with the insurance company, where he deeply experienced the plight, helplessness, and pain of marginalized groups facing giant insurance companies. Mangione's "manifesto" reflects deep-seated social issues in the United States, including Americans' dissatisfaction with the costly and inefficient U.S. healthcare system. Some opinions suggest that the primary function of the American healthcare system is not to provide high-quality medical services but to generate huge profits for pharmaceutical and insurance companies. To delve deeper into this issue, it may be necessary to start with the current medical situation in the United States in the next installment.