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Hong Kong financial secretary’s hands were tied – but he got at least one thing right
文章
2024 年 3 月 4 日
Financial Secretary Paul Mo-po Chan had few palatable options before him when he drew up the 2024-25 budget.
The government has been running a fiscal deficit almost every financial year since 2019, and the forecast deficit for 2023-24 would have widened to HK$173 billion (US$22.1 million) but for a bond issue of HK$72.5 billion. Measures to balance the budget, whether cutting back on welfare expenditure or raising taxes, are sure to generate a substantial backlash from a public accustomed to low taxation and generous handouts.
To raise revenue, the government had toyed with the idea of introducing new taxes, but backed off given the adverse market reaction. Even after Chan ruled out introducing a capital gains tax on January 17, the Hang Seng Index still experienced a steep decline that day as his clarification was seen as being not categorical enough.
Raising government fees and charges on a “user-pays” basis had also been floated. Water and sewage charges, and more, are indeed long overdue for an increase. But any such increase is bound to hit the grass roots hardest, and raise business costs at a time when the economic recovery is fragile.
Chan trod extremely carefully and he confined tax increases to limited items – a modest increase in business registration fees by HK$200, a 1 per cent increase in salary tax for an estimated 12,000 taxpayers whose net income exceeds HK$5 million, a progressive rating system for domestic premises from the fourth quarter of 2024-25, and resumed collection of the hotel accommodation tax, at a rate of 3 per cent, effective next year.
Altogether they are estimated to generate no more than HK$3.16 billion in the coming year, a pittance compared to the forecast deficit of HK$143 billion before bond issuance. Chan cannot be faulted for reckless tax hikes that could rock the boat.
Chan’s hands are tied when it comes to boosting the economy, given that most of the negative factors weighing on the economy – high interest rates, the strong US dollar, ongoing geopolitical tensions – are out of his control. Despite these constraints, Chan got one key policy right: the scrapping of all “demand management” property transaction stamp duties that had been introduced since 2010 to rein in skyrocketing home prices.
The debate over these stamp duties – Special Stamp Duty to curb speculation, Buyer’s Stamp Duty to dampen external demand, and the New Residential Stamp Duty to counter market exuberance – tells a poignant story about how the government battled rising angst about runaway home prices through fiscal intervention. The stamp duties brought the government a windfall of land revenue, and the buoyant property market led many to believe that the sun would never set on the property sector.
To address deep-rooted discontent about the concentration of wealth among homeowners and young people’s inability to own their own homes, the government doubled down on its efforts to step up land and housing supply.
As the result of the government’s determined efforts, Chan was able to announce in the budget that it had identified land for meeting the supply target of 308,000 public housing units in the next decade, and would be able to achieve completion of 19,000 private residential units in the next five years, a 15 per cent increase over the annual average of the past five years.
The unexpected economic downturn resulting from the pandemic, the rapid ratcheting up of interest rates and abundant supply coming on stream sent the property market into a nosedive. Louis Chan Wing-kit, vice-chairman of Centaline, one of Hong Kong’s largest property agencies, said last month that compared to the market peak in September 2021, second-hand home prices had plunged nearly 24 per cent in less than two-and-a-half years. Chan estimated that the value of Hong Kong’s property market had dropped below HK$10 trillion, representing an evaporation of wealth equivalent to HK$2.6 trillion.
The negative wealth effect of such a sharp fall in property values sent ripples across the economy, depressing consumption and investment, creating drags on the economy that the financial secretary had to address. With the property sector having been a key driver of Hong Kong’s growth for decades, the government had no choice but to eliminate the stamp duties. Otherwise, continuing pessimism could have led to a collapse of confidence.
Soon after the announcement, there were reports of homeowners asking for higher prices, and brisker transactions returned. With weak growth, it is unlikely that there will be a surge in demand in the near future, but the abolition of the stamp duties will ensure property prices don’t end up in a free fall.
The government is determined to broaden Hong Kong’s economic structure by making a belated move to promote “high-quality growth” through scientific innovation and technology. In recent years, the government has poured billions into building the infrastructure for technological development, making land available for tech parks and funds for tech investment.
Substantially enlarged science parks in the planned Northern Metropolis at the border with Shenzhen are intended to be flagship developments that will jump-start Hong Kong’s tech-based industries. Hong Kong started late, and it will be a while before investments generate the desired returns.
In the absence of near-term gains from its tech investments, the property sector and tourism remain Hong Kong’s chief engines of growth. It is to Chan’s credit that he managed to steer clear of controversies that would raise the political decibel levels at a time when the government’s top priority is to ensure the passing of national security legislation in accordance with Hong Kong’s constitutional obligation under Article 23 of the Basic Law. There is no promise of immediate economic turnaround, but Chan’s cautious navigation should ensure a soft landing.
Hong Kong financial secretary’s hands were tied – but he got at least one thing right
財政司司長陳茂波擬訂2024-25年財政預算時,面臨的可取之策非常少。
香港政府自2019年財政年度起,幾乎每年都錄得赤字。2023-24年財政赤字,若非發債725億元,赤字將會擴大至1,730億港元。不管是削減福利開支,抑或增加稅項,政府的任何平衡預算措施,都很可能引發低稅高福利的市民強烈不滿。
為增加收入,政府考慮引入新稅項,但鑒於市場反應不佳而收回。盡管陳茂波1月17日表明不會增設資本增值稅,恆生指數當天仍急挫,表明其說法未能令人信服。
提高各種政府收費也經考慮,但「用者自付」原則下增加水費、排污費等久遠未改的費用,必定重挫基層,且在經濟復蘇時期增加企業成本。
陳茂波在增加稅項上非常小心,他擬定2024-25年財政預算時,在增加稅項方面非常謹慎。他只對少數項目作有限增長,如商業登記費略加200港元;預計1.2萬納稅人裡年收入超過500萬港元者,薪金稅率提高1個百分點;從2024-25財年第四季開始實施房產分階梯征收模式;並從明年恢復酒店住宿稅,稅率定為3%。
這些措施估計明年僅可增加收入31.6億港元,對預期1,730億元赤字來說相當微不足道。陳茂波沒有亂增稅項干擾市場,這一點無法責難。
至於振興經濟,陳茂波之手也難為情,因為利率高企、美元強勢及地緣政治張力等負面因素,均非他能控制。盡管面臨限制,但陳茂波有一項關鍵政策判斷正確,即廢除自2010年實施以來所有“需求管理”房地產印花稅,以遏抑房價飆升。
這些建議稅引發熱議,反映政府如何通過財政干預應對房價上漲引發的民怨。但房地產市場繁榮,也使人相信牛市會延續。
為應對房東財富集中和年輕人買不起房的深層次不滿,政府加大力度增加土地和房屋供應。
由於政府的堅定行動,陳茂波在財政預算案中宣布,已確定可滿足未來十年30.8萬套公屋供應目標的土地,並且將在未來五年內完成1.9萬套私人住宅,比過去五年每年平均漲幅15%。
新冠疫情帶來的經濟下行、利率持續飆升以及房地產供應傾瀉,令房地產市場急劇下挫。中原地產亞太區副主席兼住宅部總裁陳永傑上月表示,相比2021年9月樓市高峰,全港房價在不足兩年半時間內已縮水近24%。他估算香港房地產市值跌破十萬億港元,相當於流失的財富為26,000億港元。
房產價格這樣劇烈下跌所造成的負面財富效應,給整體經濟造成衝擊,壓抑消費和投資,增加了財政司必須應對的經濟阻力。鑒於房地產多年來一直是推動香港增長的關鍵驅動力,政府別無選擇只能取消印花稅。否則,悲觀情緒持續可能會導致信心崩潰。
政策宣布後,市場隨即有賣家提高賣價的報導,交易量也回升。但在經濟增長疲弱的情況下,短期內難見需求大漲,但廢除印花稅將確保房價免於失控下跌。
政府決意通過推動延遲但重視的“高質量增長”,將香港經濟結構拓寬,以科技創新為重。近年,政府已投入數以億計的資源,建設科技發展基礎設施,提供科技園地和科技投資基金。位於深圳邊境的北部都會規劃中大幅擴建的科技園,旨在帶動香港科技產業起飛。但香港起步較遲,投入需時間帶來預期回報。
在短期內未能從科技投資獲得回報的情況下,房地產業和旅遊業依舊是香港經濟增長的主要動力。財政司司長陳茂波成功避免了涉及爭議性事件,從而避免在政府首要任務是根據基本法第二十三條通過國家安全立法時增加政治爭議程度。短期內難實現經濟迅速轉好,但陳茂波慎重地指導應能保證經濟軟著陸。
在科技投資未能帶來近期利好的情況下,房地產業和旅遊業仍然是香港主要的經濟增長動力。值得稱贊的是,在政府首要任務是按基本法第二十三條通過國家安全立法的這一重要時期,陳茂波成功地避免涉及爭議的事件,從而不會增加政治爭議的聲量。雖然短期內經濟難迅速轉好,但陳茂波之慎重工作風格,應該可以保證經濟軟著陸。
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