President Xi's message stresses need for reform 　   文章 　   2024 年 12 月 16 日 On Dec 13, President Xi Jinping, accompanied by three Politburo members, received an annual performance report on Hong Kong's economy, from Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu. In a brief press statement, President Xi gave full recognition to Lee for accomplishing the historic task of enacting local legislation to implement Article 23 of the Basic Law. President Xi also highlighted other significant aspects of Lee's work, including reinvigorating the economy, spurring development, striving to resolve housing, improving on health and other livelihood issues, strengthening external engagement and cooperation, and enhancing Hong Kong's international influence. The Hong Kong Special Administrative government's progress in consolidating a positive trend was appreciated, he said. It is significant that international engagement and enhancement of Hong Kong's international influence were recognized as important areas of the government's work. The HKSAR as a whole has indeed accomplished much in reclaiming its pivotal position as an international meeting place. Government agencies and nongovernmental organizations have joined hands to bring reputable international bodies and global leaders to Hong Kong to engage in dialogues on a wide gamut of financial, economic, technological, environmental and geopolitical issues. Xi's words are a timely reminder that Hong Kong must not lose sight of its unique international character. The messages embedded in paragraph two of the statement encapsulate the essence of the central government's expectations. In line with the resolution adopted at the third plenary session of the 20th Communist Party of China Central Committee on further deepening reform comprehensively for advancing Chinese modernization, Hong Kong must grasp the historic opportunity to fully utilize its advantages under "one country, two systems". In particular, Hong Kong was urged to implement reform to align its development with national strategies. Reshaping the economy and unleashing more new quality productive forces were identified as priority tasks. The call for reform is not new. During his meeting with business leaders in Shenzhen on Nov 10, Xia Baolong, director of the Hong Kong and Macao Work Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, warned that Hong Kong could not expect to continue relying on the old playbook. The HKSAR must accelerate reform to enhance its tourism appeal and grow its tech-based industries, and its traditional advantages as a maritime, aviation and urban hub must be preserved, he said. The importance of strengthening Hong Kong's financial services, and trade and logistics sectors cannot be over-emphasized. Research by a leading state-owned bank estimates that in 2022, the two sectors accounted for 45 percent of Hong Kong's GDP. The contribution of the tourism sector is much lower on a per capita basis, but it provides large numbers of low-skilled jobs. Inbound tourism is also vital for boosting the local retail and catering industries. Since Hong Kong's post-pandemic re-opening in February 2023, a combination of factors including changing lifestyles, a strong local currency, and Hong Kong residents' love of outbound travel have combined to dampen the tourism industry's recovery. Weak retail spending and restaurant receipts have caused Hong Kong's economic growth rate to slow to an estimated anemic 2.6 percent. Xia's comments laid bare the central government's anxiety about Hong Kong's slow progress in technological development and lack of innovation in tourism promotion. Against this background, and the need to safeguard Hong Kong's traditional position as a leading maritime, aviation and transport hub, on Dec 5, Lee dropped a bombshell by announcing the replacement of the two bureau directors responsible for tourism and transport and logistics with younger and more dynamic officials. Under the political appointment system introduced in 2002, the replacement of bureau directors assessed as under-performing has not been uncommon. Yet this time round, it is evident that a conscious decision was made to appoint veteran civil servants to take the helm. The promotion of women is significant. Even though the HKSAR government does not have an affirmative action program to promote women or minorities, with the appointment of Mable Chan Mei-bo and Rosanna Law Shuk-pui as bureau directors by dint of their hard work, seven out of the 15 bureau director positions, or more than 46 percent, are now filled by women, the largest proportion since 1997. The appointments have largely been welcomed by the community and the media. There is a general feeling that meritocracy is back. The business community wants leaders who are decisive in implementing reform and supporting industry. The inadequate attention paid to the maritime sector has long been a sore point. With the completion of the third runway, stronger support for the aviation sector is required. Revitalizing the tourism sector also needs bolder initiatives, better judgement and speedier responses. Officials who can communicate with the media and show a common touch are particularly welcome. The two women directors are in their honeymoon period. The first hundred days will test their ability to survive and thrive. Leadership makes a difference, but the HKSAR government faces other formidable hurdles in its drive to rebuild the economy. The building out of the northern metropolis is taking too long and costing too much. The government pins high hopes on the construction of the San Tin Technopole, a 540-hectare tech park that would help propel and integrate Hong Kong's tech development with the Chinese mainland. Stage one of the works alone, which consists of site formation and provision of roads and other infrastructure, will cost over HK$27 billion. The site will not be ready for occupation until 2031 at the earliest. Given the rapid pace of technological development, Hong Kong will have a lot of catching up to do when the tech park opens. It is also time for the government to face its fiscal challenges head-on. The government faces a fiscal deficit for the current financial year in the order of HK$100 billion, and by some accounts, including debt issued, of around HK$200 billion. The government needs to bite the bullet and put forward a concrete plan for restoring fiscal balance. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily. It is significant that international engagement and enhancement of Hong Kong's international influence were recognized as important areas of the government's work. The HKSAR as a whole has indeed accomplished much in reclaiming its pivotal position as an international meeting place. ... Xi's words are a timely reminder that Hong Kong must not lose sight of its unique international character.

一簽多行拔頭籌 後勁還看新局長 / Multiple Entry Visa Facilitates Hong Kong Travel Boom; Tourism Momentum Depends on New Minister 　   文章 　   2024 年 12 月 12 日 一簽多行拔頭籌 後勁還看新局長 / Multiple Entry Visa Facilitates Hong Kong Travel Boom; Tourism Momentum Depends on New Minister 2024年終結前，中央政府又向香港送大禮。11月29日，中華人民共和國出入境管理局宣布，「自2024年12月1日起，深圳市戶籍居民和居住證持有人可以申請辦理赴香港旅遊『一簽多行』簽注，在一年內可不限次數往來香港地區，每次在香港逗留不超過七天。」這對香港旅遊業而言無疑是大好消息，也是特區政府及行政長官爭取多時的成果。 「港迪」賽馬受捧 文旅追落後 新措施實施一星期，根據入境事務處的記錄，12月1日至7日這七天的入境內地訪客總人次為648758人次，比前一周即11月24日至30日的620502人次，增加了28256人次。若單計周末，12月7日的入境內地訪客有145034人次，比上周六11月30日的138180人次，增加了6854人次，反映新措施起步成效不俗。的而且確，我走在街上、商場裏，都見到很多看似是內地旅客，特別是有很多年輕旅客，大家來香港感受聖誕氣氛。 大家都會記得，今次不是首次推行「一簽多行」。2003年香港面對金融海嘯及「沙士」的衝擊，中央政府便以「自由行」、「一簽多行」惠港，香港經濟谷底反彈，後來衍生各種矛盾衝突，在2015年時叫停了「一簽多行」，改為「一周一行」。 今次再實施「一簽多行」，雖然社會上偶有聲音擔憂會讓水貨客、拖喼客逼爆北區等問題重臨；但是時而易世，今時今日，內地旅客的旅遊及購物習慣經已改變，加上內地網購盛行，內地旅客來港狂掃貨以至逼爆街道的「盛況」相信不會再現。 我認為今次重推「一簽多行」，勢必增加內地來港旅客的人流。根據《深圳市2023年國民經濟和社會發展統計公報》，深圳市常住人口有1700多萬人，當中「深圳市戶籍居民」有600多萬人，而「深圳市居住證持有人」即非戶籍居民更有約1200萬人，我相信他們非常樂意來香港旅遊，來感受和深圳不一樣的城市氛圍，讓市面變得熱鬧起來。 踏進12月這個聖誕旺季，各大商場別樹一幟的燈飾、擺設最能吸睛，期望各大商場熱情積極吸引人流。不過，內地旅客購物模式改變，尤其是年輕旅客，他們來感受香港這個國際大都市的魅力，既不是來掃奶粉尿片，也不是來狂買高端名牌，因此不會帶動高端消費，反而具香港特色的文旅產品能讓他們掏腰包，也能豐富他們的香港體驗。內地各省市的文旅紀念品超前得很，香港在這方面要加把勁。 除了逛商場，內地旅客喜歡觀光體驗，特別是深圳以至在內地鮮有的體驗，就更有吸引力，例如剛在沙田馬場舉行的浪琴香港國際賽事（12月8日）便是特區政府推動賽馬旅遊的首場國際賽，吸引了6000多名內地旅客入場。 另外，他們特別喜歡「港迪」（香港迪士尼樂園），認為「港迪」能保持美國迪士尼樂園的風格，較原汁原味，管理也較好。在2023年11月開幕的全球首個《魔雪奇緣》主題園區「魔雪奇緣世界」更是吸引大量內地旅客朝聖的王牌園區。 須主辦更多大型國際盛事 海洋公園現在坐擁6隻國寶大熊貓，除了「盈盈」、「樂樂」，今年8月出生的港產大熊貓龍鳳胎在11月23日舉行了「百日宴」，又經常在直播中放閃，不論旅客或港人都被「家姐細佬」萌化了。至於中央贈港的「安安」和「可可」自9月底來港後，亦剛在12月7日舉行了「大熊貓亮相儀式」；加上在尖沙咀星光大道舉行的《PANDA GO！香港遊》全港最大型熊貓展，估計熊貓風潮會流行一陣子，不過熊貓對內地旅客而言沒那麼大的新鮮感，長遠而言可能將吸引東南亞旅客。 旅客來港總要醫肚，一日兩至三餐少不了，惟他們未必會光顧非常昂貴的高級餐廳食肆，高端餐飲業未必能從「一簽多行」措施受惠，但是茶餐廳、文青Cafe，或是網紅打卡店會受青睞。 最後，環顧零售、餐飲和酒店業，似乎酒店業最難以從「一簽多行」措施獲利，皆因內地旅客普遍認為香港酒店價格昂貴，加上交通便利，他們大可選擇即日來回，不留宿不過夜。相對於各家大酒店，反而一些別出心裁價格相宜的精品旅館更討內地旅客歡心，有可能突破他們不過夜的格局。 我認為振興酒店業要靠主辦更多大型盛事及國際會議。其實特區政府在舉辦盛事方面十分努力，香港國際七人欖球賽、巴塞爾藝術展（Art Basel）、香港高爾夫球公開賽等均十分成功，來年4月的Coldplay演唱會更是全港引頸以待。 此外，各行各業亦舉辦了不少國際會議、高峰論壇，包括國際金融領袖投資峰會、大學校長高峰論壇、香港海運周等，以至專業界別的國際會議，例如第十一屆國際檢察官協會亞洲及太平洋地區會議（The 11th Asia and Pacific Regional Conference of the International Association of Prosecutors）等等。這類峰會不會帶來龐大人流，但會帶來高端旅客，他們會在香港逗留多天，會住宿酒店，到貴價餐廳晚膳宴客，對於帶動高端消費有實際效用。 適逢新的文化體育及旅遊局局長羅淑佩上任，有見她在擔任運輸署署長、房屋局常任秘書長兼房屋署署長期間，表現非常勇猛，敢做敢創新，加上她為人親民貼地，又是MIRROR粉絲，期望她能從「受眾」的角度出發，想出更多吸引內地旅客來港旅遊、消費、購物、飲食，以至留宿的點子，讓「一簽多行」達致最大效益。 Multiple Entry Visa Facilitates Hong Kong Travel Boom; Tourism Momentum Depends on New Minister Just before the end of 2024, the central government once again sent a significant gift to Hong Kong. On November 29, the Exit and Entry Administration of the People's Republic of China announced, "Starting from December 1, 2024, residents of Shenzhen with household registration and residence permits can apply for a 'multiple entry' visa for travel to Hong Kong. They can enter and exit the Hong Kong region an unlimited number of times within a year, with each stay in Hong Kong not exceeding seven days." This is undoubtedly great news for the Hong Kong tourism industry and a long-awaited achievement for the SAR government and the Chief Executive. "Rise in Popularity of 'Hong Kong Disney Theme Park plus Horse-racing while Tourism Lags Behind" After the implementation of the new measures for a week, according to records from the Immigration Department, the total number of mainland visitors entering Hong Kong from December 1 to 7 was 648,758, an increase of 28,256 compared to the previous week of November 24 to 30, which saw 620,502 visitors. Specifically, on December 7, there were 145,034 mainland visitors entering Hong Kong, up by 6,854 compared to the previous Saturday, November 30, indicating a promising start to the new measures. Indeed, it is noticeable that many mainland visitors, especially young ones, can be seen on the streets and in shopping malls, all coming to Hong Kong to experience the Christmas atmosphere. It is worth noting that this is not the first time the "multiple entry" policy has been implemented. In 2003, facing the impact of the financial crisis and the SARS epidemic, the central government introduced the "individual visit scheme" and "multiple entry" policies to support Hong Kong. The rebound of the Hong Kong economy from its lowest point was seen after these measures were implemented. However, various conflicts arose later, leading to the suspension of the "multiple entry" policy in 2015, replaced by the "one trip per week" policy. "Although there are occasional concerns in society that the reintroduction of the 'multiple entry' policy may lead to problems such as resurfacing parallel trading activities and overcrowding in the Northern District, times have changed. Today, mainland visitors' travel and shopping habits have evolved, coupled with the prevalence of online shopping in the mainland. The 'shopping spree' that used to congest the streets is unlikely to reoccur. I believe that the reimplementation of the 'multiple entry' policy this time will undoubtedly increase the influx of mainland visitors to Hong Kong. According to the Shenzhen Statistical Yearbook 2023, Shenzhen has a population of over 17 million, with over 6 million registered residents and around 12 million non-registered residents holding residence permits. I believe they are very willing to travel to Hong Kong to experience a different city atmosphere from Shenzhen, making the streets lively once again." "As we step into the bustling Christmas season of December, the unique decorations and displays in major shopping malls are the most eye-catching, with hopes that these malls will actively attract crowds. However, mainland visitors' shopping habits have changed, especially among the younger travelers. They come to experience the charm of Hong Kong as an international metropolis, not solely to buy baby formula or luxury brands. Therefore, they are not driving high-end consumption but are more inclined to spend on unique cultural and tourism products that reflect Hong Kong's essence, enriching their Hong Kong experience. Mainland provinces and cities excel in cultural and tourism souvenirs, an area where Hong Kong needs to put in more effort. In addition to mall-hopping, mainland visitors enjoy sightseeing experiences, especially those unique to Hong Kong or rare in mainland China. Events such as the Longines Hong Kong International Races held at Sha Tin Racecourse (on December 😎 have been promoted by the SAR government as the first international race to boost horse racing tourism, drawing over 6,000 mainland visitors to the event." "They particularly enjoy 'Hong-Di' (Hong Kong Disneyland), believing that it maintains the style of the American Disneyland parks, offering an authentic experience with better management. The world's first 'Frozen' themed area, 'Frozen World,' which opened in November 2023, has been a flagship attraction drawing a large number of mainland visitors for pilgrimage." We need to host more large-scale international events. Currently, Ocean Park is home to six national treasure giant pandas, including "Ying Ying" and "Le Le." The locally born giant panda twins, born in August this year, had their "100 Days Celebration" on November 23. They often make appearances on live streams, melting the hearts of both tourists and locals. As for the pandas gifted to Hong Kong by the central government, "An An" and "Ke Ke," since arriving in Hong Kong at the end of September, they also had their "Giant Panda Debut Ceremony" on December 7. In addition to this, the largest panda exhibition in Hong Kong, "PANDA GO! Hong Kong Tour," held on the Avenue of Stars in Tsim Sha Tsui, is expected to be popular for a while. However, pandas may not be as novel for mainland tourists, and in the long run, they may attract tourists from Southeast Asia. Travelers coming to Hong Kong will inevitably need to eat, with two to three meals a day being essential. However, they may not necessarily frequent very expensive high-end restaurants. The high-end dining industry may not benefit from the "multiple entry" policy, but tea cafes, artsy cafes, or Instagram-worthy eateries are likely to be favored. To revitalize the hotel industry, it seems that hotels face challenges in profiting from the "multiple entry" policy, as mainland tourists generally perceive Hong Kong hotels as expensive. Additionally, with convenient transportation, many opt for same-day trips without staying overnight. In contrast to larger hotels, some unique and affordable boutique hotels may capture the hearts of mainland tourists, potentially breaking the pattern of no overnight stays. I believe that revitalizing the hotel industry relies on hosting more large-scale events and international conferences. The SAR government has been proactive in organizing such events, including the Hong Kong Sevens Rugby Tournament, Art Basel, the Hong Kong Golf Open, all of which have been highly successful. The eagerly anticipated Coldplay concert in April next year is another example of such events that draw attention across Hong Kong. Furthermore, various industries have also organized numerous international conferences and summits, including the International Financial Leaders Investment Summit, University Presidents Summit, Hong Kong Maritime Week, and international conferences within specific professional fields, such as The 11th Asia and Pacific Regional Conference of the International Association of Prosecutors. While these summits may not bring in massive crowds, they attract high-end travelers who stay in Hong Kong for several days, patronize hotels, and dine in upscale restaurants, effectively driving high-end consumption. With the new Secretary for Culture, Sports and Tourism, Rosanna Law Shuk-pui, taking office, her past performances as Permanent Secretary for Housing have been bold and innovative. Known for her approachability and being a fan of MIRROR, it is hoped that she will leverage her audience-oriented perspective to devise more ideas to attract mainland tourists to Hong Kong for travel, consumption, shopping, dining, and lodging, maximizing the benefits of the "multiple entry" policy.

俄烏戰爭最危險一刻 / The Most Dangerous Moment in the Russia-Ukraine War 　   文章 　   2024 年 12 月 6 日 當全球注意力聚焦在特朗普勝選及組閣，俄烏戰爭也正進入最危險階段。有分析指出，俄軍自2022 年烏克蘭戰爭爆發以來，目前正以最快速度在烏克蘭戰場上推進，光是過去一個月就佔領相當於半個倫敦的烏克蘭領土。 今年10 月，朝鮮派遣約1.2 萬名士兵，協助俄羅斯大幅度收回庫爾斯克（Kursk）地區。拜登便以應對朝鮮參戰為由，於11 月17 日准許烏克蘭使用美國提供的陸軍戰術導彈（ATACMS）及英國製造的「暴風影」（Storm Shadow）導彈攻擊俄羅斯。值得注意的是， 俄羅斯外長拉夫羅夫（Sergei Lavrov） 在10 月接受《新聞周刊》（Newsweek ）採訪時，曾警告若美國及其北約盟友授權使用西方長程導彈攻擊俄羅斯領土等於「玩火」，可能會導致危險的後果。 拜登此舉顯然刺激了俄羅斯要回以顏色。俄羅斯在11 月21 日發射了射程可達約3000 至5000 公里的「榛樹」（Oreshnik）導彈，以高超音速攻擊烏克蘭第聶伯羅（Dnipro）的關鍵基礎設施。據路透社報道，普京表示此舉是烏克蘭使用美英導彈襲擊俄羅斯領土的回應。有外媒報道，俄羅斯已通知華盛頓將會作攻擊。 從戰局上看，烏克蘭連續丟掉多個戰略要地，似乎敗局已定。在美國允許基輔使用西方飛彈反擊之後，俄羅斯也開始試圖佔領更大的土地。事實上，俄羅斯已佔領約20% 的烏克蘭領土，包括扎波羅熱（Zaporizhzhia）、盧甘斯克（Luhansk），以及頓涅茨克（Donetsk）等多個戰略要地。單是在上周，俄羅斯便佔領了烏克蘭近235 平方公里土地，為今年以來最高單周紀錄。 有軍事專家指出，快接近3 年的俄烏衝突乃一長期消耗戰，人口及經濟實力較強的國家勝算較高，烏克蘭閃電進攻庫爾斯克及用英美導彈攻擊俄羅斯本土對扭轉戰局無大幫助。 The Most Dangerous Moment in the Russia-Ukraine War While global attention is focused on Trump's election victory and cabinet formation, the Russia-Ukraine war is also entering its most dangerous phase. Some analyses suggest that since the outbreak of the Ukraine war in 2022, the Russian military is currently advancing at the fastest pace on the Ukrainian battlefield, having occupied Ukrainian territory equivalent to half of London in just the past month. In October of this year, North Korea dispatched around 12,000 soldiers to assist Russia in significantly reclaiming the Kursk region. Biden, citing the need to respond to North Korea's involvement, authorized Ukraine on November 17 to use U.S.-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and British-made "Storm Shadow" missiles to attack Russia. It is worth noting that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in an interview with Newsweek in October, warned that authorizing the use of Western long-range missiles to attack Russian territory by the U.S. and its NATO allies is "playing with fire" and could lead to dangerous consequences. Biden's move clearly provoked a strong response from Russia. On November 21, Russia launched the "Oreshnik" missile with a range of approximately 3,000 to 5,000 kilometers, targeting critical infrastructure in Dnipro, Ukraine with hypersonic speed. According to Reuters, Putin stated that this action was a response to Ukraine's use of American and British missiles to attack Russian territory. Some foreign media reports indicate that Russia has notified Washington that an attack will be carried out. From a strategic standpoint, Ukraine has lost several key positions in succession, seemingly facing inevitable defeat. Following the U.S. authorization for Kyiv to retaliate with Western missiles, Russia has also begun attempts to occupy even more territory. In fact, Russia has already occupied about 20% of Ukrainian territory, including strategic locations such as Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, and Donetsk. Just last week, Russia seized nearly 235 square kilometers of Ukrainian land, marking the highest single-week record this year. Military experts point out that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, nearing its third year, is a prolonged war of attrition, where countries with stronger populations and economic capabilities have a higher chance of success. Ukraine's lightning attack on Kursk and the use of British and American missiles to attack Russian mainland are seen as not significantly helpful in altering the course of the conflict.

美國會否變成獨裁政體？（二）/ Will the United States Become an Autocracy? (Part 2) 　   文章 　   2024 年 12 月 4 日 特朗普當選不久便遇到第一個挫折，他提名的司法部長人選蓋茨因未能獲得共和黨國會參議員的支持而主動撤回候選人提名。表面上看這是美國制度對特朗普一次成功制衡；可是那邊廂，美國最高法院似乎對特朗普妥協了。自2023年被刑事起訴以來，圍繞着特朗普的一系列法律糾紛在美國憲政史上創造了一連串的「歷史首次」。例如2024 年7 月1 日，美國最高法院公布了一項有關「總統刑事豁免權」的歷史性判決，裁定總統在執行憲法職權時有「絕對」刑事免罪權，任期內不能追究。由此可見，特朗普成功掌握了參眾兩院和保守派主導的美國最高法院。 特朗普還有世界首富馬斯克的支持，此外亦有報道指一些歐洲國家元首不得不向特朗普俯首稱臣，反映特朗普將掌握極大的權勢和影響力。 根據美國憲法，總統只能擔任兩屆。為了延續自身的政治影響力，特朗普於是次回朝後便開始着手委任一些較年輕的「特朗普主義」追隨者擔任重要的政府職位。比方說，共和黨全國委員會共同主席賴拉和候任副總統萬斯。兩位被看好在特朗普2.0 政府中有更上一層樓的發展，甚至可能在2028 年接棒問鼎大位，繼承特朗普的政治遺產。由此可見，特朗普在商場或政壇都有親信密切合作。 這些現象讓人擔心美國是否會走向強人政治，類似於羅馬帝國的歷史。眾所周知，美國在立國之初是一個共和國，但若特朗普能延續強人政治，美國可能會走向歷史轉折點，類似羅馬帝國由民主共和國轉變為獨裁專制政權。有羅馬帝國奠基者之稱的凱撒大帝憑藉赫赫戰功於公元前49 年實行獨裁統治。雖然其後被元老院成員暗殺，但其強人政治傳承至他的甥孫屋大維，將羅馬從共和國轉變為帝國。 如今，美國出現了特朗普這樣的強人，如果他完成第二任期並讓接班人繼承他的政策，那美國會否沿着羅馬的軌迹，由共和國變成獨裁政體？ Will the United States Become an Autocracy? (Part 2) Shortly after Trump's election, he encountered his first setback. His nominee for Attorney General, Gates, voluntarily withdrew his candidacy due to a lack of support from Republican members of Congress. On the surface, this may seem like a successful check on Trump by the American system; however, on the other hand, the U.S. Supreme Court seems to have compromised with Trump. Since being criminally indicted in 2023, a series of legal disputes surrounding Trump has created a series of "historical firsts" in American constitutional history. For example, on July 1, 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court announced a historic ruling on "presidential criminal immunity," stating that the president has an "absolute" criminal immunity while performing constitutional duties and cannot be prosecuted during their term. This indicates that Trump has successfully gained control over both houses of Congress and the conservative-dominated U.S. Supreme Court. Trump also has the support of the world's richest person, Musk, and there are reports that some European heads of state have had to bow to Trump, reflecting Trump's immense power and influence. According to the U.S. Constitution, a president can only serve two terms. In order to continue his political influence, Trump has started appointing younger "Trumpist" followers to key government positions after his second term. For example, the co-chair of the Republican National Committee, Laila, and the vice president-elect, Vance. Both are seen as having a promising future in the Trump 2.0 government, and they may even vie for the presidency in 2028, inheriting Trump's political legacy. This shows that Trump has close collaborators in both the business world and the political arena. These phenomena raise concerns about whether the United States is heading towards authoritarianism, similar to the history of the Roman Empire. It is well known that the United States was founded as a republic, but if Trump can continue authoritarian rule, the U.S. may reach a historical turning point, similar to the Roman Empire's transition from a democratic republic to a dictatorial regime. Julius Caesar, known as one of the founders of the Roman Empire, established dictatorial rule in 49 BC based on his great military achievements. Although he was later assassinated by members of the Senate, his authoritarian rule was passed on to his grandnephew, Augustus, transforming Rome from a republic to an empire. Today, the United States has a strongman like Trump. If he completes a second term and passes on his policies to his successor, will the U.S. follow the path of Rome, transitioning from a republic to an autocracy?

美國會否變成獨裁政體？ / The United States: Will It Become an Autocracy? 　   文章 　   2024 年 11 月 30 日 美國共和黨在大選成功取得參眾兩院控制權，加上美國最高法院目前由保守派大法官控制，使得美國「三權分立」的制度受到嚴重衝擊。以特朗普涉嫌偽造商業紀錄向成人片女星支付「掩口費」的案件為例，紐約州法官不久前宣布案件無限期押後判刑，並且允許特朗普的律師提出駁回此案的動議，引起外界一片譁然，國際社會關注美國能否維持其民主政制。關於這點，我在史丹福大學進修時的論文導師戴雅門教授（Professor Larry Diamond）在特朗普當選後不久便發布文章Democracy Without America? 表達對美國民主發展的憂慮。 文章指出：「能否捍衛美國民主典範將取決於政府和社會領袖的行動，包括國會、州和地區政府、公務員、武裝部隊和地方警察、商界、公民機構，以及法院。」根據《美國憲法》，州政府擁有各自的州權，有關權力不能被美國聯邦政府侵犯。美國建國時設立的權力制衡制度，在三權分立基礎上進一步保障地方政府的權力，防範聯邦政府濫權。因此，各州政府不一定須向特朗普臣服。 此外，特朗普提名的司法部長已宣布退出角逐此職位，原因是未能在參議院獲得足夠支持，民主黨固然不會同意由涉嫌吸毒和曾爆出性醜聞的人擔任司法部長，共和黨員也不願意因支持蓋茨而付出政治代價，據聞已向特朗普表示不會支持，因此這項提名因支持不足而作廢。 美國原有的制度頂層設計和法律執行層面都有各種制衡手段，防止總統獨攬大權。戴雅門教授仍然審慎樂觀的在文章指出：「不應將美國大選解讀為對專制的投票。」從數字來看，雖然特朗普的民粹政策看似獲得決定性支持。文章引述美聯社數據：「共和黨初選時有1700 萬美國人把票投給特朗普；到正式大選，特朗普僅獲得共和黨10% 登記選民和7% 合資格選民的支持。」遠比初選時低。並且，賀錦麗雖敗但仍然取得7434 萬多票，特朗普僅獲50% 選票。由此可見，特朗普有獨裁傾向的政策能否獲美國大多數人支持仍是未知數。 The United States: Will It Become an Autocracy? The success of the Republican Party in gaining control of both houses of Congress in the election, coupled with the current conservative control of the Supreme Court, has seriously impacted the system of "separation of powers" in the United States. For example, in the case where Trump was suspected of falsifying business records to pay "hush money" to an adult film star, a judge in New York recently announced an indefinite postponement of the case and allowed Trump's lawyer to file a motion to dismiss the case, causing an uproar and international concern about whether the United States can maintain its democratic system. Concerning this issue, my thesis advisor Professor Larry Diamond at Stanford University expressed concerns about the development of American democracy shortly after Trump's election in an article titled "Democracy Without America?" The article points out: "Whether the American democratic model can be defended will depend on the actions of government and societal leaders, including the Congress, state and local governments, public servants, armed forces and local police, businesses, civil society organizations, and the courts." According to the U.S. Constitution, state governments have their own powers that cannot be infringed upon by the federal government. The system of checks and balances established at the founding of the United States further safeguards the powers of local governments based on the separation of powers, preventing federal government abuse of power. Therefore, state governments may not necessarily submit to Trump. In addition, the Attorney General nominated by Trump has announced his withdrawal from the race for this position due to insufficient support in the Senate. The Democratic Party, of course, would not agree to have someone suspected of drug use and involved in sexual scandals serve as Attorney General, and Republicans are also unwilling to incur political costs for supporting Gates, reportedly indicating that they will not support Trump, rendering the nomination invalid due to insufficient support. The top-level design and legal enforcement aspects of the original U.S. system have various means of checks and balances to prevent the president from monopolizing power. Professor Diamond cautiously and optimistically points out in the article: "The U.S. election should not be interpreted as a vote for autocracy." In terms of numbers, although Trump's populist policies seemed to garner decisive support, the article cites data from the Associated Press: "During the Republican primaries, 17 million Americans voted for Trump; in the general election, Trump only received support from 10% of registered Republican voters and 7% of eligible voters." Much lower than during the primaries. Furthermore, although Harris was defeated, he still received over 74.34 million votes, while Trump only secured 50% of the vote. Therefore, whether Trump's authoritarian policies can gain support from the majority of Americans remains uncertain.

托克維爾論美國民主 / Tocqueville on American Democracy 　   文章 　   2024 年 11 月 27 日 共和黨總統候選人特朗普強勢歸來，再度當選總統。然而，有意見認為他將威脅美國民主及長遠發展。當今世界，雖然一人一票直選政治領袖已在許多地方成為政治正確的標竿，亦把美國視為民主理想的彼岸。然而，美國總統選舉並非完全由選民直選，而是通過選舉人團制進行。這一制度源自1787 年制定的美國憲法，最初由美國各州公民先選出該州選舉人，再由選舉人代表該州投票選出總統、副總統。理論上，選舉總統的過程中，由各州推舉產生的選舉人團可以為缺乏辨別能力的普通選民把關，從而更有希望選出稱職的總統人選，防止民粹主義等嚴重後果。 關於這點，美國史丹福大學政治及社會學教授戴雅門（Larry Diamond）在 Democracy Without America? 一文中寫到：「對於選舉結果的早期分析，特朗普的勝利更多歸因於經濟和移民等問題，而非對其專制傾向的認可。然而，無論美國人支持特朗普的理由是什麼，他的競選活動清楚表明，他將不受任何全球制約，來制衡他和他的政府的反民主衝動。各種迹象顯示他是一名民粹主義的獨裁者。」他的這番言論讓我聯想到19 世紀法國政治思想家托克維爾的一部著作《民主在美國》，書中描述了托克維爾在美國考察的經歷，他從第三者的角度觀察美國的民主制度。上卷介紹美國與歐洲的不同，又指出美國地大物博，人民可以擁有自己的土地，並且獨立經營自己的生活。這種先天條件孕育出美國獨特的政治和社會價值觀。在美國社會，幾乎所有人民都抱持勤勞工作和超越他人的理想。對托克維爾而言，美國與歐洲最大的差異就是這些獨特的民主價值觀。 托克維爾讚揚民主制度在美國的成功發展，同時對民主制度下出現多數暴政的可能性提出警告。他認為自由不是個人主義和利己主義，自由不是絕對的無限制的自由，而是基於正確理解的權利。在他看來，民主的未來不是必然的，有可能走向新的專制，也有可能走向自由。 那麼，托克維爾讚揚的美國將何去何從？我們下回分解。 Tocqueville on American Democracy / 托克維爾論美國民主 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has made a strong comeback and been re-elected as president. However, some believe that he poses a threat to American democracy and its long-term development. In today's world, although one person, one vote direct election of political leaders has become a political correctness benchmark in many places, the United States is still seen as the epitome of democratic ideals. However, the election of the U.S. president is not entirely by direct vote of the people, but through the Electoral College system. This system, originating from the U.S. Constitution drafted in 1787, initially involves citizens of each state electing electors who then vote for the president and vice president on behalf of the state. In theory, during the process of electing the president, the Electoral College, composed of electors selected by each state, can act as a check on ordinary voters lacking discernment, thereby increasing the likelihood of electing a qualified presidential candidate and preventing serious consequences like populism. Regarding this, Larry Diamond, a professor of political science and sociology at Stanford University, wrote in "Democracy Without America?" that, "Early analysis of the election results attributes Trump's victory more to economic and immigration issues than to acceptance of his authoritarian tendencies. However, regardless of the reasons Americans support Trump, his campaign clearly indicates that he will not be constrained by any global norms in balancing his and his government's anti-democratic impulses. Various signs indicate he is a populist autocrat." His remarks remind me of Alexis de Tocqueville, a 19th-century French political thinker, and his work "Democracy in America," where he describes his observations of the American democratic system from a third-party perspective. The first volume introduces the differences between America and Europe, highlighting America's vastness, where people can own their land and independently lead their lives. These inherent conditions have nurtured unique political and social values in America. In American society, almost everyone holds ideals of hard work and surpassing others. Tocqueville believes that the biggest difference between America and Europe lies in these unique democratic values. Tocqueville praises the successful development of the democratic system in America while also warning of the potential for majority tyranny under a democratic system. He argues that freedom is not individualism and selfishness, nor is it absolute unlimited freedom, but rather rights based on correct understanding. In his view, the future of democracy is not predetermined; it could lead to new despotism or towards freedom. So, where will the America that Tocqueville praised be headed? Let's delve into that next time.

借鑑英倫吸旅客 沉浸式遊香江 　   文章 　   2024 年 11 月 26 日 港澳辦早前在深圳召開座談會，主任夏寶龍勉勵大家，「今日之世界非昨日之世界，香港也不能僅靠傳統優勢『一招鮮、吃遍天』，必須銳意改革，主動作為，在變局中打開香港新天地」。 「2024年香港工商界人士座談會」於11月8日舉行，夏寶龍強調香港「要想方設法加快旅遊業態升級，用好香港1,180公里海岸綫和263個島嶼，根據實際發展康養旅遊、度假旅遊、文化旅遊、郵輪旅遊等。」 零售需快轉型 達「性價比」合理 我十分認同夏主任的說法，皆因眾所周知，在與內地通關復常後，港人北上消費的趨勢一發不可收拾。有舊同事告訴我，他光顧深圳食肆，一餐消費不過40元人民幣，店方服務相當殷勤體貼，我們買單時，店長很有禮貌地問「今天的食物可以嘛？」在香港，即使不計算獨特的茶餐廳文化，在普通價位的餐廳食肆，未必獲得侍應笑容滿臉的招待。 購物方面，深圳很多商場地方大，品牌專櫃多，時裝款式比香港多，售價比香港便宜。在香港，可能因為零售銷售額下降，買時裝較容易斷碼，或要從上海或澳門運貨過來。 此外，「小紅書」等平台有各種購物攻略，例如指引大家乘坐深圳地鐵到哪個站有時裝特賣場，價格甚至比大商場的專櫃便宜一半。凡此種種，可見在「價廉物美、性價比高」這條綫上，香港難以和深圳比拼。香港零售業必須加緊升級轉型，使顧客覺得「性價比」合理，提高旅客的體驗。 我在本月初率領新民黨的「對外聯絡小組」到英國倫敦訪問，在密集的會議行程之間，亦把握周末在倫敦小遊，對作客倫敦有些體會，在這裏和大家分享，讓香港借鏡。 我們入住的酒店位於梅費爾區（Mayfair），我在酒店餐廳享用了幾天早餐，部長在第3天已稱呼我為「Miss Regina」，態度十分親切。某天早上，黨友來餐廳找我洽談公事，部長送他免費咖啡。酒店咖啡7英鎊（約68港元）一壺，還可以免費添飲，相比香港中區的酒店咖啡近80港元一小杯，而且逐杯收費，倫敦咖啡相對便宜了。 酒店以外的餐廳服務周到，侍應久不久便過來笑着問「Is everything OK？」說起來，美國的侍應都會滿臉堆歡地招呼客人，不過只是為了打賞小費，若小費不夠，他們還是會黑臉，比較起來，要為英國侍應點讚。 我們在周末晚上光顧了倫敦西區蘇豪區（Soho）一間普通價位的時尚餐廳，周末嘛，餐廳座無虛席，氣氛熱鬧。先入眼簾的，是餐廳聘用了輸入勞工，負責我們這桌的是一位身材高大、像是來自東歐的女侍應，她每次過來接單、上菜、換碟，都是笑容滿臉的，讓我們感到賓至如歸。 事實上，很多城市的遊客區都會針對旅客來源，聘用不同國籍的輸入勞工或留學生，例如日本、或在中國遊客高峰期的英歐時裝店，會有普通話售貨員，食肆會有英語侍應和不同語言的餐牌等等。一般而言，香港服務員的英語水平有待改善，香港需要思考如何提升針對不同國籍旅客的旅遊體驗。 我們在倫敦西區愛德華王子劇院（Prince Edward Theatre）欣賞了音樂劇《MJ》（《米高積遜》），晚上9時完場時，附近街道非常熱鬧，人潮湧動，不需要政府動手，也愈夜愈繽紛。 倫敦西區發展戲劇 領先西九 倫敦西區（West End）是歷史悠久、世界馳名的戲劇文化區，劇院林立，四處都有歌劇、音樂劇及其他藝術演出。和香港的西九文化區不同，西區這裏是自然有機發展（Organic Growth），成功主因是集聚效應（Cluster Effect），百年劇院多的是，上演的既有歷演不衰的經典劇目，例如《歌聲魅影》（The Phantom of the Opera）、《孤星淚》（Les Misérables），亦有近年新興的迪士尼音樂劇《冰雪奇緣》（Frozen the Musical）等等，集聚人才、演出、劇院，經年累月地形成區域性文化藝術產業區，吸引來自世界各地、一代又一代的觀眾購票入場，跟着帶動附近的餐飲及娛樂業。 香港的西九文化區完全不同，香港模式是先興建硬件，建成一幢幢博物館、劇院，再逐步引入軟件，即是展覽和節目，換句話說是「花了錢」再推出文化產品。例如今年年中引入了膾炙人口的《仙樂飄飄處處聞》（The Sound of Music），十分受歡迎，演出場地是戲曲中心大劇院，不過大劇院也只能容納1,000名觀眾左右，並不是大場地，門票收入有限。預計在2026年落成的演藝綜合劇場（Lyric Theatre Complex），將有助西九文化區引進更多吸引本地及海外觀眾的演出。 猶記得小時候我們在西環高陞戲院看大戲，座席前面是八仙枱，觀眾可以買點心入場，邊看大戲邊品茶食點心。北京老舍茶館也是類似的模式，倫敦西區也是這樣，場館門口很多酒水小食賣，整體氛圍很沉浸。西九文化區則截然不同，演出是演出，酒水小食一概欠奉，洗手間還要跑得老遠，場館既不能增加額外收入，亦未能進一步提升觀眾的觀劇體驗，十分可惜。 吸高端旅客 勿打壓私人會所 最後，這次訪英，我們先後獲邀到兩家風格迥異的高級會所作客。第一家是Annabel's，那是極為豪華的私人會所，內裏裝修非常華麗，客人非富則貴。晚宴主人家還特意叮囑我們到女洗手間拍照留念，皆因那是非常紅的自拍打卡點，連維多利亞（Victoria Beckham）都有在那堵精緻的馬賽克牆前留下倩影。 第二家是Brooks's Club，那是一幢非常具歷史價值的建築，經過多次翻新修葺而成今天的樣子。與Annabel's完全不同，Brooks's Club風格屬傳統英式，男士內進要結領帶，女士也要打扮優雅。 兩家風格不同的會所各有不同的吸引力，兩頓晚宴讓我們感受到倫敦既摩登又傳統的不同面貌，這也是國際大都會應有的樣子。倫敦做到了，香港要反思，究竟應如何把握既有的優質旅遊資源，不要打壓那些有珍貴康樂娛樂資源的私人會所，並且「想方設法加快旅遊業態升級」，針對性地吸引不同的旅遊客群，讓他們來沉浸式體驗香港。

特朗普內閣人選惹爭議 / Trump Cabinet Nominees Stir Controversy 　   文章 　   2024 年 11 月 24 日 特朗普當選後隨即公布內閣名單，觀其心儀人選，可看出來特朗普只注重順從而漠視該人選的相關工作能力或品格，這種以服從凌駕一切的委任標準，惹來廣泛爭議。 首先， 讓外界嘩然的是獲提名為美國國防部長的海格塞斯（Pete Hegseth）。海格塞斯現職霍士新聞台（Fox News）節目主持人，雖然曾在美國陸軍國民警衛隊服役，但從未有當高級軍官或其他高層職務的經驗，能否擔起國防部長的大旗，備受質疑。 另一名獲特朗普垂青提名為司法部長的蓋茨（Matt Gaetz）更受爭議。這名來自佛羅里達州的前眾議員曾因性醜聞及濫藥，受到眾議院道德委員會調查。在上一個任期，特朗普對於自己控制不了司法部心生怨懟，當時蓋茨藉着「讓美國再次偉大」浪潮，在民主黨控制的眾議會為特朗普發聲，可見對特朗普非常忠心。可是，蓋茨從事法律工作的經驗甚淺，加上品格被質疑，使美國傳媒及部分國會議員相當不滿，蓋茨獲眾議院議長力撐，且看候任總統的意願能否蓋過一切反對聲音。 特朗普能獲得那麼多選民支持，其中一個原因是他揚言要打倒「深層政府」（deep state）。所謂「深層政府」意指在政府內部真正掌權操弄國家的幕後黑手。不少選民認為他們選出的總統並不是真正的掌權人，特朗普掌握了選民這種心理而提名一些沒有任何政府關係的議員入閣，以標誌改革。 另一個能力受質疑但被提名當高官的是加巴德（Tulsi Gabbard）。加巴德是從民主黨轉過來支持特朗普的夏威夷眾議員。她曾就烏克蘭問題顯示她親俄立場及相當簡單的思維，使人懷疑她能否勝任國家情報總監一職。 特朗普宣布成立「政府效率部」，任命商人馬斯克（Elon Musk）和拉馬斯瓦米（Vivek Ramaswamy）掌舵，揚言要精簡政府架構、減少開支，並重組聯邦架構。到截稿時仍未有清晰資料顯示這兩名商界領袖如何「領導」這個新部門，是全職管理抑或只是提供意見？ Trump Cabinet Nominees Stir Controversy Following his election, Trump promptly announced his cabinet list. By observing his favored candidates, it is clear that Trump prioritizes obedience over considering the nominees' relevant work abilities or character. This appointment standard of prioritizing obedience above all else has sparked widespread controversy. Firstly, what stunned the public was the nomination of Pete Hegseth as the Secretary of Defense. Hegseth is currently a host on Fox News and, although he served in the United States Army National Guard, he lacks experience as a senior military officer or in other high-ranking positions. His ability to take on the role of Secretary of Defense is heavily questioned. Another controversial figure Trump has shown interest in nominating is Matt Gaetz for Attorney General. This former congressman from Florida has been embroiled in a sex scandal and drug abuse allegations, leading to an investigation by the House Ethics Committee. During the previous term, Trump harbored resentment towards not having control over the Justice Department. At that time, Gaetz rode the wave of "Make America Great Again" to voice support for Trump in the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives, showing his loyalty to Trump. However, Gaetz's lack of legal experience and his character being called into question have left many in the American media and some members of Congress dissatisfied. Despite receiving strong support from the Speaker of the House, it remains to be seen whether the incoming president's willingness can overcome all opposition. Trump garnered support from many voters, in part due to his promise to dismantle the "deep state." The "deep state" refers to the unseen hands within the government that truly wield power and manipulate the nation behind the scenes. Many voters believe that the president they elected is not truly in charge, prompting Trump to nominate some non-government-affiliated legislators to his cabinet as a signal of reform. Another nominee whose abilities are questioned but is appointed as a high official is Tulsi Gabbard. Gabbard, a former Democratic congresswoman from Hawaii, switched to support Trump. Her stance on the Ukraine issue showing her pro-Russia position and relatively simplistic thinking raise doubts about her suitability for the role of Director of National Intelligence. Trump announced the establishment of the "Department of Government Efficiency" and appointed businessmen Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to lead it, promising to streamline government structure, reduce spending, and reorganize federal architecture. By the time of the deadline, there was still no clear information on how these two business leaders would "lead" this new department—whether they would manage it full-time or merely provide advice.

民主黨還有哪些領軍人才？/ Which leading figures are there in the Democratic Party ? 　   文章 　   2024 年 11 月 23 日 民主黨在美國大選慘敗，若要擺脫目前頹勢，必須在兩年後的中期選舉重新部署，及早檢視各項策略，並於2028年選舉前重新透過初選，選出有競爭力的領袖，才有望在2028 年總統大選東山再起，重獲選民支持，再回白宮。 除了賀錦麗和沃爾茲，民主黨還有幾位備受矚目的政客。加利福尼亞州州長紐森（Gavin Newsom）是其一，他不單在加州有強大影響，在美國全國範圍內也有一定知名度。紐森曾任三藩市市長和加州副州長，是個典型的左翼民主黨政客，熱中推動中美氣候合作，曾成功推動《中華人民共和國國家發展和改革委員會與美利堅合眾國加利福尼亞州政府關於加強低碳發展和綠色轉型合作的諒解備忘錄》的簽署。紐森主張的政策體現他理性務實的一面，屬民主黨的地方實力派。 密歇根州州長惠特默（Gretchen Whitmer）是另一位可擔大旗之人。2020年新冠疫情期間，她為了阻止疫情傳播，敢於運用《國際緊急經濟權力法》（1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act）實施時間長而嚴厲的行政命令，關閉了該州的居民、學校和企業，幾乎連經濟都封鎖了。儘管這些措施引發不少爭議，但也顯示了她的果斷、經驗和執行能力。 賓夕法尼亞州州長夏皮羅（Josh Shapiro）亦被視為黑馬。他在2022 年州長選舉以壓倒性姿態勝選，出任賓州州長後一直享有很高的支持度。2023年，一條通往費城的高速公路坍塌，夏皮羅快速處理復修，贏得不少掌聲。這經歷被視為他爭取在2028 年總統大選出戰的有力政績。 不過，民主黨還在輸掉大選的哀悼期，能否重整旗鼓重回白宮，變數甚多，目前言之尚早。另一個變數自然是特朗普上場後的表現，如果特朗普執政導致美國政局混亂，鐘擺反彈，民主黨或有望東山再起。 Which leading figures are there in the Democratic Party ? / 民主黨還有哪些領軍人才？ Apart from Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden, the Democratic Party has several other prominent figures. One of them is Gavin Newsom, the Governor of California, who not only wields significant influence in California but also enjoys a considerable level of national recognition in the United States. Newsom, a typical left-wing Democratic politician, has served as the Mayor of San Francisco and as the Lieutenant Governor of California. He is actively involved in promoting Sino-American climate cooperation and has successfully advocated for the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the National Development and Reform Commission of the People's Republic of China and the Government of California on enhancing cooperation in low-carbon development and green transformation. Newsom's policy stances reflect his rational and pragmatic side, making him a key figure within the Democratic Party. Another potential leader is Gretchen Whitmer, the Governor of Michigan. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, she took bold steps to curb the spread of the virus, utilizing the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to implement extensive and strict executive orders, leading to the closure of residents, schools, and businesses in the state, essentially locking down the economy. While these measures sparked controversy, they also demonstrated her decisiveness, experience, and executive capability. Josh Shapiro, the Governor of Pennsylvania, is also considered a dark horse. He won the 2022 gubernatorial election by a landslide and has maintained high levels of support since assuming office as the Governor of Pennsylvania. In 2023, when a highway collapsed on the way to Philadelphia, Shapiro swiftly handled the repairs, earning him considerable praise. This experience is seen as a significant achievement in his bid to run for the presidency in the 2028 elections. However, the Democratic Party is still in a period of mourning over their election defeat. Whether they can regroup and make a comeback to the White House is uncertain, with many variables in play. Another significant variable is the performance of Trump after his re-entry onto the political stage. If Trump's governance leads to chaos in U.S. politics, there might be an opportunity for the Democratic Party to make a resurgence.

Can Beijing and Big Business Trump-proof Hong Kong / 北京和大型企業可保護香港免受特朗普影響嗎？ 　   文章 　   2024 年 11 月 22 日 US president-elect Donald Trump’s decisive victory over Vice-President Kamala Harris, the Republican Party’s control of Congress and strong backing from his appointees on the US Supreme Court will make him the most powerful US president in recent history. He is coming into office with the unreserved support of the world’s richest man, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index – tech mogul Elon Musk – who has just been named to lead a new department of efficiency. The massive power Trump now wields has sent shock waves across the US and around the world. Although Beijing took care not to drop any hint of its preference, a triumphant Trump return and all that it means for the future of Sino-US relations appeared to have been within China’s calculations. On November 8, Xia Baolong, the director of the Hong and Macau Affairs Office, convened a meeting with 29 Hong Kong business and industrial leaders, in addition to Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu and other senior officials, in Shenzhen, Guangdong province. The timing seems to have been carefully chosen to take stock of the US election results. Trump unleashed more tremors by announcing the appointment of a motley crew of hardliners and acolytes to important cabinet and ambassadorial positions. When news broke that Trump was mulling the appointment of prominent China hawks, Senator Marco Rubio and Representative Michael Waltz, to the positions of secretary of state and national security adviser respectively, the Hang Seng Index plunged 580 points. Rubio sponsored the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019. This landmark statute requires US government departments to assess Hong Kong’s political developments as a precondition for continuing the city’s unique status under US law. The act laid the groundwork for stripping Hong Kong of special treatment in the US and imposing sanctions on the city. After Beijing enacted a law to safeguard national security in Hong Kong in June 2020, then-president Trump swiftly signed the Hong Kong Autonomy Act into law in July 2020 and slapped sanctions on Hong Kong almost a month afterwards. Trump’s skewed vision of Hong Kong posing a national security threat, shared by many in Congress, including Rubio, can only fill Hong Kong with grim forebodings. At the meeting in Shenzhen on November 8, Xia said that Hong Kong is undergoing a profound change, both internally and externally. His remarks were a clear signal of Beijing’s deep concerns about the impact of the Trump administration on China, not least Hong Kong, a small but highly externally oriented economy which depends heavily on trade and the free flow of capital, information and people. Xia sent pointed messages to both government officials and business representatives at the meeting. He warned government officials that “Hong Kong cannot rely solely on its traditional advantages by relying on just one trick”. He urged Hong Kong to enhance its tourism appeal by taking advantage of its beautiful coastline, enchanting islands and cultural assets. Xia also encouraged government officials to invest more in science and technology. Xia reportedly urged business leaders not to be “bystanders”, but active participants in the government’s programmes to bolster Hong Kong’s development as a premier aviation hub, seaport and trading port. Beijing has come to Hong Kong’s rescue many times, sending tourists, capital and good-quality companies for listing in Hong Kong’s stock market. China has helped Hong Kong weather many storms. Despite the importance President Xi Jinping has attached to Hong Kong’s success under “one country, two systems”, can a reinforced partnership between the central government, Hong Kong and big business adequately keep the city Trump-proof? Even patriotic businessmen must do tough number-crunching before they deploy their capital to support government projects and quite rightly so. If they end up depleting their capital as the result of investing recklessly in financially non-viable projects, they would not be doing the nation, including Hong Kong, any good. Luckily, after years of work on the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Innovation and Technology Cooperation Zone, the end of the tunnel is finally in sight. The first batch of development at the jointly run technology park at the Lok Ma Chau Loop is expected to be completed in phases starting later this year. The park will enable Hong Kong to build centres of excellence in research and development (R&D), combining the abundant technological resources of Shenzhen with Hong Kong’s global financial and business expertise. Another bright spot is the progress made in leapfrogging biomedical research. The government has launched a new scheme for local registration of drugs and medical devices. The Health Bureau is working with Shenzhen to set up a Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area clinical trial collaboration platform to expedite clinical trials and expand R&D networks. Hong Kong companies will be able to access bio-samples from other places that are part of the Greater Bay Area development zone. The infrastructure to jump-start technological development is finally taking shape. Despite growing more sluggish than before, Hong Kong does not lack capital, talent or global connectivity. The only trouble with the new Trump administration is that there are too many unknowns. How will Elon Musk function in the Trump administration? Will he be a full-time efficiency tsar or continue to wear many hats? Who would have the most influence on Trump – anti-China, anti-free trade hardliners or pragmatic entrepreneurs? As the line-up of key officials in Trump’s administration takes shape, only time will tell what his real agenda is. In the meantime, like other parts of the world, Hong Kong must Trump-proof itself by staying calm and strong. 中譯本 : 北京和大型企業可保護香港免受特朗普影響嗎？ 美國當選總統唐納德.特朗普（Donald Trump）決定性地擊敗副總統哈里斯.賀錦麗（Kamala Harris），共和黨控制了國會，並得到美國最高法院大法官的強力支持，使他成為近代最有權力的美國總統。 據彭博億萬富翁指數顯示，他將在上任時獲得世界上最富有的人——科技大亨伊隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）的全力支持，馬斯克剛被任命負責領導一個新的效率部門。特朗普現在所擁有的巨大權力在美國乃至全球引起了震撼。 雖然北京小心翼翼地沒有透露其偏好，但一個凱旋而歸的特朗普以及這一切對中美關係未來意味著的影響似乎已經在中國的考量之中。 11月8日，國務院港澳事務辦公室主任夏寶龍在廣東省深圳市召集了29名香港商界和工業界領袖、行政長官李家超和其他高級官員舉行了一次會議。這次會議的時間看來是精心選擇，總結美國選舉結果。 特朗普宣布任命一批強硬派和信徒擔任重要的內閣和大使職位，進一步震憾外界。有消息傳出特朗普正在考慮任命著名的中國鷹派參議員馬可·魯比奧和眾議員邁克爾·瓦爾茲分別擔任國務卿和國家安全顧問時，恆生指數下跌了580點。 魯比奧推動了2019年的《香港人權與民主法案》。這部具有里程碑意義的法律要求美國政府部門在繼續根據美國法律賦予該城市獨特地位的前提下，評估香港的政治發展。這部法案為剝奪香港在美國的特殊待遇以及對該市實施制裁奠定了基礎。 在北京於2020年6月實施了維護香港國家安全的法律後，當時的總統特朗普於2020年7月迅速簽署了《香港自治法案》，並在將近一個月後對香港實施了制裁。特朗普對香港構成國家安全威脅的扭曲看法得到了眾議院眾多人士的共鳴，包括魯比奧，這將不免使香港充滿陰霾。 在11月8日深圳的會議上，夏寶龍表示，香港正在經歷內外的深刻變化。他的言論清楚地表明了北京對特朗普政府對中國，尤其是對高度依賴貿易、資金、信息和人員自由流動的香港這樣一個小而高度外向型經濟體所帶來影響的深切擔憂。 夏在會議上向政府官員和商界代表發出了明確的訊息。他警告政府官員說，“香港不能僅僅依靠傳統優勢，僅僅依賴一招”。 他提及香港可通過利用其美麗的海岸線、迷人島嶼和文化資產來增強其旅遊吸引力。夏還鼓勵政府官員在科學技術方面進行更多投資。 據報導，夏敦促商界領袖不要成為“旁觀者”，而應成為政府計劃中支持香港發展成為一流航空樞紐、海港和貿易港口的積極參與者。 北京曾多次援助香港，派遣遊客、資本和優質企業在香港股市上市。中國幫助香港度過了許多風雨。 儘管習近平主席對“一國兩制”下香港成功的重要性給予了高度重視，但中央政府、香港和大型企業之間加強合作是否足以使這座城市免受特朗普的影響呢？ 即使是愛國商人在支持政府項目之前也必須進行艱巨的經濟數據分析，這是非常正確的。假如他們因為在財政上不可行的項目上投資而最終耗盡了他們的資本，那對國家，包括香港，都不會有好處。 幸運的是，在長年致力於深港創新科技合作區之後，隧道的盡頭終於看到了曙光。預計將從今年底開始分階段完成在落馬洲環繞區共同運營的科技園區的首批開發工作。 這個園區將使香港能夠建立研發（研發）卓越中心，將深圳豐富的技術資源與香港的全球金融和商業專業知識相結合。 另一個亮點是在跨越生物醫學研究方面取得的進展。政府已推出了一項新計劃，用於本地藥物和醫療器械的註冊。醫務衞生局正與深圳合作建立廣東-香港-澳門大灣區臨床試驗合作平台，以加快臨床試驗進程並擴大研發網絡。香港企業將能夠獲得來自大灣區發展區域其他地方的生物樣本。 推動科技發展的基礎設施終於初具雛形。儘管增長速度比以往緩慢，但香港並不缺乏資本、人才或全球聯繫。 新的特朗普政府唯一的問題是有太多未知數。埃隆·馬斯克將如何在特朗普政府中發揮作用？他會成為全職效率專家，還是繼續身兼多職？誰將對特朗普產生最大影響 - 反華、反自由貿易的強硬派，還是務實的企業家？ 隨著特朗普政府主要官員陣容的確定，只有時間才能揭示他真正的議程。與此同時，就像世界其他地區一樣，香港必須通過保持冷靜和堅強，來使自己免受特朗普的影響。