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Hong Kong has what it takes to bounce back. We just need to pull together / 我們需要團結一致 香港有能力東山再起
文章
2024 年 9 月 15 日
In July, Hong Kong continued to post strong double-digit growth in external trade, increasing the total value of merchandise trade in the first seven months to a solid 10.1 per cent year on year. The city’s strong trade performance brought few cheers, as the continued slump in retail sales, which declined a further 11.8 per cent in July cast a pall on the economic outlook.
The good news is that after months of struggling to revive tourism-related retail, catering and hotel accommodation sectors, a key engine of growth, the reality has finally come home to roost that a singular reliance on mass tourism from mainland China to boost consumption will not deliver the desired fast turnaround.
The government should not be faulted for not working hard enough to boost tourism or to create more vibrant night scenes. After all, tourism arrivals in the first seven months of the year have reached 25 million and are estimated to reach 46 million by the end of the year, a very respectable number, albeit still falling short of the jaw-dropping high of 65 million arrivals recorded in 2018. Four out of five of those arrivals were from the mainland.
In hindsight, the phenomenal numbers notched up in 2018 can hardly be healthy or sustainable, considering the small size of the city, the paucity of attractions and the lack of diversity of tourists. The sky-high spending of mainland Chinese tourists on luxury products skewed the local economy, bringing outsized profits to landlords and luxury retailers, but took away any potential incentives for locals to upgrade services or bring in innovative shopping and dining experiences.
It is easy to blame the city’s weak consumption on its high living costs, its strong currency linked to the US dollar, the changed spending patterns of visitors from mainland China, and Hong Kong people’s new-found love of staying at home to shop and order food online. But sight must not be lost of more powerful underlying forces at work – Hong Kong’s accelerating integration with mainland China.
When funding approval was given for billions to be spent on the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge, the high-speed rail connecting West Kowloon with Shenzhen within 20 minutes and the Liantang-Heung Yuen Wai Boundary Control Point linking our city with the mainland, few would have dreamed that the super-efficient transport network would change the lives of Hong Kong residents.
It was as though a new world had been discovered after the mainland reopened in February 2023. The price differential and the services offered are so overwhelmingly attractive that many Hong Kong residents, local and expatriate, are not only spending weekends and holidays in Shenzhen and further north but also going to the mainland for dental, medical and other services, dealing heavy blows to Hong Kong service providers.
There are no quick fixes to Hong Kong’s price competitiveness problem. In economic terms, since Hong Kong cannot devalue its fixed exchange rate, the city simply has to deflate, and this is happening across a broad spectrum.
Grade A office and shop rentals have come down considerably, which is no bad thing. There is little joy in retaining the dubious title of being one of the world’s most expensive cities when demand has slackened.
Cheaper rentals have brought new businesses to Hong Kong. Welcome additions include art galleries and new eateries from Japan and Korea. In a rotation mirroring the changed retail scene, shopping malls and commercial buildings are functioning as family-friendly outlets, offering dance classes for children and pet-care services.
The latest news coming out of the storied Tsim Sha Tsui district, famous for its vibrant nightlife, is that Miramar Group, the Tsim Sha Tsui Kaifong Welfare Association and other stakeholders have banded together to revitalise the district.
Though progress has not been as quick or as smooth as desired, Hong Kong is equipped with the requisite hardware to make it a world capital for regional events, sports and entertainment.
Hong Kong has always done well in organising conferences and conventions. Recent examples include an international conference on philanthropy hosted by the Hong Kong Jockey Club, bringing together charitable foundations from around the world, and a conference on the Belt and Road Initiative which brought 6,000 participants from 70 countries and regions to Hong Kong.
With the cluster of museums in West Kowloon Cultural District functioning smoothly and the Kai Tak Sports Park – which will provide a stadium with a capacity for 50,000 spectators – opening next year, Hong Kong is well positioned to host mega concerts for top entertainers and more large-scale sports events.
The LIV golf tournament, which took place in Hong Kong in March, is a good example of the unique sporting experience Hong Kong can offer. I recall that a visitor from Qingdao, Shandong province, said while in Fanling he had never had such an enjoyable experience watching a golf tournament, and that more visitors from the mainland would be keen to come if the event was more widely publicised.
Every shock or crisis jolts Hong Kong people into creating new value and exploring more opportunities. Competition from Shenzhen and other northern neighbours is a stark reminder that the world does not owe us anything. We cannot expect to return to the “good old days” of spendthrift customers landing on our doorstep without much effort on our part to attract them.
The government, businesses of all sizes and the community must work together to meet the challenge. There is only one way to survive and thrive – the smart way and the hardworking way.
中譯本:我們需要團結一致 香港有能力東山再起 / Hong Kong has what it takes to bounce back. We just need to pull together
7月,香港繼續保持強勁的兩位數增長的對外貿易,使前七個月的商品貿易總值同比穩固增長了10.1%。盡管香港的強勁貿易表現為城市帶來了一些喜悅,但7月份零售銷售持續下滑,同比下降了進一步的11.8%,給經濟前景蒙上了一層陰影。
好消息是,經過數月努力振興與旅游相關的零售、餐飲和酒店住宿等部門,這些作為增長引擎的領域,現實終於顯而易見:單一依賴於大陸游客以提振消費的策略並不能帶來所期待的快速扭轉局面。
政府不應因未盡力推動旅游業或創造更加活躍的夜間景觀而受到責備。畢竟,今年前七個月的旅游抵達量已達到2500萬人次,預計年底將達到4600萬人次,這是一個非常可觀的數字,盡管仍然不及2018年創下的令人驚嘆的6500萬人次的高峰。其中五分之四的抵達者來自內地。
事後看來,2018年創下的驚人數字幾乎無法健康或可持續,考慮到這座城市的規模較小、景點稀少以及游客種類的缺乏。大陸游客在奢侈品上的天價消費扭曲了當地經濟,給房東和奢侈品零售商帶來了超額利潤,但卻消除了當地居民提升服務質量或帶來創新購物和餐飲體驗的潛在動力。
很容易將這座城市消費疲軟歸咎於其高昂的生活成本、與美元掛鉤的強勁貨幣、來自中國大陸游客的消費模式轉變,以及香港人新近喜歡在家購物和網上訂餐。但不能忽視更強大的潛在力量——香港與中國大陸加速融合。
當為港珠澳大橋、連接西九龍與深圳僅需20分鐘的高鐵以及連接本市與內地的蓮塘-香園圍邊境管制站等項目批准數以十億資金時,很少人會夢想到這一超高效的交通網絡將改變香港居民的生活。
就像2023年2月內地重新開放後發現了一個新世界一樣。價格差異和所提供的服務如此誘人,以至於許多香港居民,無論是本地人還是外籍人士,不僅在深圳以及更北部度過周末和假期,還前往內地接受牙科、醫療和其他服務,給香港的服務提供商造成了沉重打擊。
香港的價格競爭力問題沒有快速解決方案。在經濟術語上,由於香港無法貶值其固定彙率,這座城市只能通貨緊縮,而這正在各個領域普遍發生。
甲級寫字樓和商鋪租金已大幅下降,這並非壞事。在需求減弱時,保持世界上最昂貴城市之一的可疑稱號並不令人歡喜。
更便宜的租金吸引了新的企業進入香港。受歡迎的新增內容包括來自日本和韓國的藝術畫廊和新餐館。在反映零售景觀變化的輪換中,購物中心和商業建築正作為家庭友好型場所運作,提供兒童舞蹈課程和寵物護理服務。
來自聞名於其繁華夜生活的尖沙咀區的最新消息是,美麗華集團、尖沙咀街坊福利會以及其他利益相關者聯合起來,共同振興該區。
盡管進展不如所期望的那樣迅速或順利,香港已具備必要的硬件條件,使其成為區域活動、體育和娛樂的世界之都。
香港在組織會議和大會方面一直表現出色。最近的例子包括由香港賽馬會主辦的國際慈善會議,彙集了來自世界各地的慈善基金會,以及一場有關“一帶一路”倡議的會議,吸引了來自70個國家和地區的6,000名參與者前往香港。
隨著西九文化區的一系列博物館運行順利以及明年即將開放的啟德體育園(將提供可容納5萬名觀眾的體育場),香港具備了舉辦頂級藝人的大型音樂會以及更多大型體育賽事的優越條件。
三月份在香港舉辦的LIV高爾夫錦標賽是香港可以提供獨特體育體驗的一個很好的例子。我記得一位來自山東省青島的游客在粉嶺時曾表示,他從未像在那裡觀看高爾夫比賽那樣享受過,如果這一活動得到更廣泛宣傳,更多來自內地的游客將會急於前來。
每一次衝擊或危機都會激勵香港人創造新的價值並探索更多機遇。來自深圳和其他北方鄰國的競爭是一個鮮明的提醒,即世界不欠我們任何東西。我們不能指望在沒有我們努力吸引他們的情況下,揮霍的顧客會輕易來到我們門前,回到“舊日美好時光”。
政府、各種規模的企業以及社區必須共同努力,共同應對挑戰。生存和繁榮只有一條路可走——那就是聰明和勤奮的道路。
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