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英國制度缺點的完美體現 / The Perfect Embodiment of the Flaws in the British System
英國制度缺點的完美體現 / The Perfect Embodiment of the Flaws in the British System
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作者︰葉劉淑儀 | 來源︰:明報 | 日期︰2024 年 7 月 23 日 |
前文提到，工黨議員韋雅蘭（Angela Rayner）憑高中輟學學歷成為新一任英國副首相，引來外界的關注。回顧歷史，英國歷屆政府只有8 位首相未獲得大學學位，而韋雅蘭更是唯一一位學歷為高中輟學的副首相。
有支持者認為，韋雅蘭能透過選舉一躍成為英國政府的二把手，既體現了民主制度中「主權在民」（popular sovereignty）的核心理念，亦證明了即使階級制度森嚴如英國，基層人民仍可憑藉自己的才能實現向上流動，反映出英式民主制度的優越性。但我認為韋雅蘭的任命非但未能體現英國政制的優點，反而進一步揭示了其制度的缺陷。
英國選舉採用單議席單票制，每個選區只有一個議席並以多數制決定勝負。在多黨競爭的情况下，很容易出現候選人在未獲得多數票的情况下當選。加上英國是按註冊選民數量，而非實際人口數量去劃分選區，導致選舉結果更容易向兩大黨傾斜。在這種扭曲選制下誕生的議員是否真的具有民意授權，是個值得商榷的問題。其次，英國內閣大臣的任命除考慮議員自身能力外，亦取決於其在政黨內的站隊，投機成分相當大。
韋雅蘭之所以能在2015 年首次進入下議院後，在翌年就迅速獲任命為影子內閣大臣，主要得益於她在2016 年工黨內訌時堅定站隊時任黨魁郝爾彬。實際上，英國政界都對韋雅蘭的晉升速度之快感到驚奇。當她在2023 年9 月影子內閣重組時獲委任為影子副首相一事，就引起了外界的激烈討論。
不過，副首相本身僅是一個非常設職務，任命與否全憑首相意願。由於沒有法定權力，副首相的實質權力及職能往往會視乎擔任者而有所差異，其主要職務更多時候是代替首相前往下議院接受議員質詢，屬於無所任大臣（minister without portfolio）的一種。我相信韋雅蘭是由於缺乏足夠的專業知識去處理其他部門的工作，才獲委任為副首相。
當一國的副首相是由一位才幹未受考驗，又無足夠民意授權的議會新兵擔任，又如何能顯示出英國的制度優勢？
The Perfect Embodiment of the Flaws in the British System
As mentioned earlier, Labour Party member Angela Rayner became the new UK Deputy Prime Minister with only a secondary education background, drawing public attention. Looking back in history, only 8 out of the UK's prime ministers did not have a university degree, while Rayner is the only deputy prime minister with an educational background of dropping out of high school.
Some supporters believe that Rayner's ability to rise through elections to become the UK government's second-in-command embodies the core idea of "popular sovereignty" in a democratic system, and proves that even in a strictly class-based system like the UK, grassroots people can still achieve upward mobility through their own abilities, reflecting the superiority of the British democratic system. However, I believe Rayner's appointment does not demonstrate the advantages of the UK political system, but further reveals its flaws.
The UK uses the single-seat single-vote constituency system for elections, with each constituency having only one seat decided by plurality voting. In a multi-party competition environment, candidates can easily win without obtaining a majority of votes. Coupled with the UK delineating constituencies based on registered voter numbers rather than actual population, the election results are more likely to tilt towards the two major parties. Whether MPs elected under such a distorted electoral system truly have a mandate from the people is debatable.
Furthermore, the appointment of UK cabinet ministers depends not only on the individual's capabilities but also on their positioning within the political party, with a high degree of opportunism.
The main reason Rayner was able to be appointed as a shadow cabinet minister in 2016, just a year after first entering the House of Commons in 2015, was because of her staunch support of then Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn during the Labour infighting in 2016. Actually, the speed of Rayner's rise surprised many in UK politics.
When she was appointed as Shadow Deputy Prime Minister in September 2023 during a reshuffle of the Shadow Cabinet, it sparked intense public discussion.
However, the role of Deputy Prime Minister itself is a non-permanent position determined by the Prime Minister's discretion. Due to its lack of statutory powers, the actual authority and functions of the Deputy Prime Minister can vary depending on the individual, with the main duties often being to replace the Prime Minister in responding to questions from MPs in the House of Commons - equivalent to a minister without portfolio. I believe Rayner was appointed as Deputy Prime Minister because she lacked sufficient professional knowledge to handle work in other departments.
How can the appointment of a deputy prime minister of a country who is an inexperienced new MP without sufficient democratic mandate demonstrate the advantages of the UK system?
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President Xi's message stresses need for reform
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On Dec 13, President Xi Jinping, accompanied by three Politburo members, received an annual performance report on Hong Kong's economy, from Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu. In a brief press statement, President Xi gave full recognition to Lee for accomplishing the historic task of enacting local legislation to implement Article 23 of the Basic Law. President Xi also highlighted other significant aspects of Lee's work, including reinvigorating the economy, spurring development, striving to resolve housing, improving on health and other livelihood issues, strengthening external engagement and cooperation, and enhancing Hong Kong's international influence. The Hong Kong Special Administrative government's progress in consolidating a positive trend was appreciated, he said.
It is significant that international engagement and enhancement of Hong Kong's international influence were recognized as important areas of the government's work. The HKSAR as a whole has indeed accomplished much in reclaiming its pivotal position as an international meeting place. Government agencies and nongovernmental organizations have joined hands to bring reputable international bodies and global leaders to Hong Kong to engage in dialogues on a wide gamut of financial, economic, technological, environmental and geopolitical issues. Xi's words are a timely reminder that Hong Kong must not lose sight of its unique international character.
The messages embedded in paragraph two of the statement encapsulate the essence of the central government's expectations. In line with the resolution adopted at the third plenary session of the 20th Communist Party of China Central Committee on further deepening reform comprehensively for advancing Chinese modernization, Hong Kong must grasp the historic opportunity to fully utilize its advantages under "one country, two systems". In particular, Hong Kong was urged to implement reform to align its development with national strategies. Reshaping the economy and unleashing more new quality productive forces were identified as priority tasks.
The call for reform is not new. During his meeting with business leaders in Shenzhen on Nov 10, Xia Baolong, director of the Hong Kong and Macao Work Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, warned that Hong Kong could not expect to continue relying on the old playbook. The HKSAR must accelerate reform to enhance its tourism appeal and grow its tech-based industries, and its traditional advantages as a maritime, aviation and urban hub must be preserved, he said.
The importance of strengthening Hong Kong's financial services, and trade and logistics sectors cannot be over-emphasized. Research by a leading state-owned bank estimates that in 2022, the two sectors accounted for 45 percent of Hong Kong's GDP. The contribution of the tourism sector is much lower on a per capita basis, but it provides large numbers of low-skilled jobs. Inbound tourism is also vital for boosting the local retail and catering industries.
Since Hong Kong's post-pandemic re-opening in February 2023, a combination of factors including changing lifestyles, a strong local currency, and Hong Kong residents' love of outbound travel have combined to dampen the tourism industry's recovery. Weak retail spending and restaurant receipts have caused Hong Kong's economic growth rate to slow to an estimated anemic 2.6 percent.
Xia's comments laid bare the central government's anxiety about Hong Kong's slow progress in technological development and lack of innovation in tourism promotion. Against this background, and the need to safeguard Hong Kong's traditional position as a leading maritime, aviation and transport hub, on Dec 5, Lee dropped a bombshell by announcing the replacement of the two bureau directors responsible for tourism and transport and logistics with younger and more dynamic officials.
Under the political appointment system introduced in 2002, the replacement of bureau directors assessed as under-performing has not been uncommon. Yet this time round, it is evident that a conscious decision was made to appoint veteran civil servants to take the helm. The promotion of women is significant. Even though the HKSAR government does not have an affirmative action program to promote women or minorities, with the appointment of Mable Chan Mei-bo and Rosanna Law Shuk-pui as bureau directors by dint of their hard work, seven out of the 15 bureau director positions, or more than 46 percent, are now filled by women, the largest proportion since 1997.
The appointments have largely been welcomed by the community and the media. There is a general feeling that meritocracy is back. The business community wants leaders who are decisive in implementing reform and supporting industry. The inadequate attention paid to the maritime sector has long been a sore point. With the completion of the third runway, stronger support for the aviation sector is required. Revitalizing the tourism sector also needs bolder initiatives, better judgement and speedier responses. Officials who can communicate with the media and show a common touch are particularly welcome. The two women directors are in their honeymoon period. The first hundred days will test their ability to survive and thrive.
Leadership makes a difference, but the HKSAR government faces other formidable hurdles in its drive to rebuild the economy. The building out of the northern metropolis is taking too long and costing too much. The government pins high hopes on the construction of the San Tin Technopole, a 540-hectare tech park that would help propel and integrate Hong Kong's tech development with the Chinese mainland. Stage one of the works alone, which consists of site formation and provision of roads and other infrastructure, will cost over HK$27 billion. The site will not be ready for occupation until 2031 at the earliest. Given the rapid pace of technological development, Hong Kong will have a lot of catching up to do when the tech park opens.
It is also time for the government to face its fiscal challenges head-on. The government faces a fiscal deficit for the current financial year in the order of HK$100 billion, and by some accounts, including debt issued, of around HK$200 billion. The government needs to bite the bullet and put forward a concrete plan for restoring fiscal balance.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
It is significant that international engagement and enhancement of Hong Kong's international influence were recognized as important areas of the government's work. The HKSAR as a whole has indeed accomplished much in reclaiming its pivotal position as an international meeting place. ... Xi's words are a timely reminder that Hong Kong must not lose sight of its unique international character.
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一簽多行拔頭籌 後勁還看新局長 / Multiple Entry Visa Facilitates Hong Kong Travel Boom; Tourism Momentum Depends on New Minister
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一簽多行拔頭籌 後勁還看新局長 / Multiple Entry Visa Facilitates Hong Kong Travel Boom; Tourism Momentum Depends on New Minister
2024年終結前，中央政府又向香港送大禮。11月29日，中華人民共和國出入境管理局宣布，「自2024年12月1日起，深圳市戶籍居民和居住證持有人可以申請辦理赴香港旅遊『一簽多行』簽注，在一年內可不限次數往來香港地區，每次在香港逗留不超過七天。」這對香港旅遊業而言無疑是大好消息，也是特區政府及行政長官爭取多時的成果。
「港迪」賽馬受捧 文旅追落後
新措施實施一星期，根據入境事務處的記錄，12月1日至7日這七天的入境內地訪客總人次為648758人次，比前一周即11月24日至30日的620502人次，增加了28256人次。若單計周末，12月7日的入境內地訪客有145034人次，比上周六11月30日的138180人次，增加了6854人次，反映新措施起步成效不俗。的而且確，我走在街上、商場裏，都見到很多看似是內地旅客，特別是有很多年輕旅客，大家來香港感受聖誕氣氛。
大家都會記得，今次不是首次推行「一簽多行」。2003年香港面對金融海嘯及「沙士」的衝擊，中央政府便以「自由行」、「一簽多行」惠港，香港經濟谷底反彈，後來衍生各種矛盾衝突，在2015年時叫停了「一簽多行」，改為「一周一行」。
今次再實施「一簽多行」，雖然社會上偶有聲音擔憂會讓水貨客、拖喼客逼爆北區等問題重臨；但是時而易世，今時今日，內地旅客的旅遊及購物習慣經已改變，加上內地網購盛行，內地旅客來港狂掃貨以至逼爆街道的「盛況」相信不會再現。
我認為今次重推「一簽多行」，勢必增加內地來港旅客的人流。根據《深圳市2023年國民經濟和社會發展統計公報》，深圳市常住人口有1700多萬人，當中「深圳市戶籍居民」有600多萬人，而「深圳市居住證持有人」即非戶籍居民更有約1200萬人，我相信他們非常樂意來香港旅遊，來感受和深圳不一樣的城市氛圍，讓市面變得熱鬧起來。
踏進12月這個聖誕旺季，各大商場別樹一幟的燈飾、擺設最能吸睛，期望各大商場熱情積極吸引人流。不過，內地旅客購物模式改變，尤其是年輕旅客，他們來感受香港這個國際大都市的魅力，既不是來掃奶粉尿片，也不是來狂買高端名牌，因此不會帶動高端消費，反而具香港特色的文旅產品能讓他們掏腰包，也能豐富他們的香港體驗。內地各省市的文旅紀念品超前得很，香港在這方面要加把勁。
除了逛商場，內地旅客喜歡觀光體驗，特別是深圳以至在內地鮮有的體驗，就更有吸引力，例如剛在沙田馬場舉行的浪琴香港國際賽事（12月8日）便是特區政府推動賽馬旅遊的首場國際賽，吸引了6000多名內地旅客入場。
另外，他們特別喜歡「港迪」（香港迪士尼樂園），認為「港迪」能保持美國迪士尼樂園的風格，較原汁原味，管理也較好。在2023年11月開幕的全球首個《魔雪奇緣》主題園區「魔雪奇緣世界」更是吸引大量內地旅客朝聖的王牌園區。
須主辦更多大型國際盛事
海洋公園現在坐擁6隻國寶大熊貓，除了「盈盈」、「樂樂」，今年8月出生的港產大熊貓龍鳳胎在11月23日舉行了「百日宴」，又經常在直播中放閃，不論旅客或港人都被「家姐細佬」萌化了。至於中央贈港的「安安」和「可可」自9月底來港後，亦剛在12月7日舉行了「大熊貓亮相儀式」；加上在尖沙咀星光大道舉行的《PANDA GO！香港遊》全港最大型熊貓展，估計熊貓風潮會流行一陣子，不過熊貓對內地旅客而言沒那麼大的新鮮感，長遠而言可能將吸引東南亞旅客。
旅客來港總要醫肚，一日兩至三餐少不了，惟他們未必會光顧非常昂貴的高級餐廳食肆，高端餐飲業未必能從「一簽多行」措施受惠，但是茶餐廳、文青Cafe，或是網紅打卡店會受青睞。
最後，環顧零售、餐飲和酒店業，似乎酒店業最難以從「一簽多行」措施獲利，皆因內地旅客普遍認為香港酒店價格昂貴，加上交通便利，他們大可選擇即日來回，不留宿不過夜。相對於各家大酒店，反而一些別出心裁價格相宜的精品旅館更討內地旅客歡心，有可能突破他們不過夜的格局。
我認為振興酒店業要靠主辦更多大型盛事及國際會議。其實特區政府在舉辦盛事方面十分努力，香港國際七人欖球賽、巴塞爾藝術展（Art Basel）、香港高爾夫球公開賽等均十分成功，來年4月的Coldplay演唱會更是全港引頸以待。
此外，各行各業亦舉辦了不少國際會議、高峰論壇，包括國際金融領袖投資峰會、大學校長高峰論壇、香港海運周等，以至專業界別的國際會議，例如第十一屆國際檢察官協會亞洲及太平洋地區會議（The 11th Asia and Pacific Regional Conference of the International Association of Prosecutors）等等。這類峰會不會帶來龐大人流，但會帶來高端旅客，他們會在香港逗留多天，會住宿酒店，到貴價餐廳晚膳宴客，對於帶動高端消費有實際效用。
適逢新的文化體育及旅遊局局長羅淑佩上任，有見她在擔任運輸署署長、房屋局常任秘書長兼房屋署署長期間，表現非常勇猛，敢做敢創新，加上她為人親民貼地，又是MIRROR粉絲，期望她能從「受眾」的角度出發，想出更多吸引內地旅客來港旅遊、消費、購物、飲食，以至留宿的點子，讓「一簽多行」達致最大效益。
Multiple Entry Visa Facilitates Hong Kong Travel Boom; Tourism Momentum Depends on New Minister
Just before the end of 2024, the central government once again sent a significant gift to Hong Kong. On November 29, the Exit and Entry Administration of the People's Republic of China announced, "Starting from December 1, 2024, residents of Shenzhen with household registration and residence permits can apply for a 'multiple entry' visa for travel to Hong Kong. They can enter and exit the Hong Kong region an unlimited number of times within a year, with each stay in Hong Kong not exceeding seven days." This is undoubtedly great news for the Hong Kong tourism industry and a long-awaited achievement for the SAR government and the Chief Executive.
"Rise in Popularity of 'Hong Kong Disney Theme Park plus Horse-racing while Tourism Lags Behind"
After the implementation of the new measures for a week, according to records from the Immigration Department, the total number of mainland visitors entering Hong Kong from December 1 to 7 was 648,758, an increase of 28,256 compared to the previous week of November 24 to 30, which saw 620,502 visitors. Specifically, on December 7, there were 145,034 mainland visitors entering Hong Kong, up by 6,854 compared to the previous Saturday, November 30, indicating a promising start to the new measures. Indeed, it is noticeable that many mainland visitors, especially young ones, can be seen on the streets and in shopping malls, all coming to Hong Kong to experience the Christmas atmosphere.
It is worth noting that this is not the first time the "multiple entry" policy has been implemented. In 2003, facing the impact of the financial crisis and the SARS epidemic, the central government introduced the "individual visit scheme" and "multiple entry" policies to support Hong Kong. The rebound of the Hong Kong economy from its lowest point was seen after these measures were implemented. However, various conflicts arose later, leading to the suspension of the "multiple entry" policy in 2015, replaced by the "one trip per week" policy.
"Although there are occasional concerns in society that the reintroduction of the 'multiple entry' policy may lead to problems such as resurfacing parallel trading activities and overcrowding in the Northern District, times have changed. Today, mainland visitors' travel and shopping habits have evolved, coupled with the prevalence of online shopping in the mainland. The 'shopping spree' that used to congest the streets is unlikely to reoccur.
I believe that the reimplementation of the 'multiple entry' policy this time will undoubtedly increase the influx of mainland visitors to Hong Kong. According to the Shenzhen Statistical Yearbook 2023, Shenzhen has a population of over 17 million, with over 6 million registered residents and around 12 million non-registered residents holding residence permits. I believe they are very willing to travel to Hong Kong to experience a different city atmosphere from Shenzhen, making the streets lively once again."
"As we step into the bustling Christmas season of December, the unique decorations and displays in major shopping malls are the most eye-catching, with hopes that these malls will actively attract crowds. However, mainland visitors' shopping habits have changed, especially among the younger travelers. They come to experience the charm of Hong Kong as an international metropolis, not solely to buy baby formula or luxury brands. Therefore, they are not driving high-end consumption but are more inclined to spend on unique cultural and tourism products that reflect Hong Kong's essence, enriching their Hong Kong experience. Mainland provinces and cities excel in cultural and tourism souvenirs, an area where Hong Kong needs to put in more effort.
In addition to mall-hopping, mainland visitors enjoy sightseeing experiences, especially those unique to Hong Kong or rare in mainland China. Events such as the Longines Hong Kong International Races held at Sha Tin Racecourse (on December 😎 have been promoted by the SAR government as the first international race to boost horse racing tourism, drawing over 6,000 mainland visitors to the event."
"They particularly enjoy 'Hong-Di' (Hong Kong Disneyland), believing that it maintains the style of the American Disneyland parks, offering an authentic experience with better management. The world's first 'Frozen' themed area, 'Frozen World,' which opened in November 2023, has been a flagship attraction drawing a large number of mainland visitors for pilgrimage."
We need to host more large-scale international events.
Currently, Ocean Park is home to six national treasure giant pandas, including "Ying Ying" and "Le Le." The locally born giant panda twins, born in August this year, had their "100 Days Celebration" on November 23. They often make appearances on live streams, melting the hearts of both tourists and locals. As for the pandas gifted to Hong Kong by the central government, "An An" and "Ke Ke," since arriving in Hong Kong at the end of September, they also had their "Giant Panda Debut Ceremony" on December 7. In addition to this, the largest panda exhibition in Hong Kong, "PANDA GO! Hong Kong Tour," held on the Avenue of Stars in Tsim Sha Tsui, is expected to be popular for a while. However, pandas may not be as novel for mainland tourists, and in the long run, they may attract tourists from Southeast Asia.
Travelers coming to Hong Kong will inevitably need to eat, with two to three meals a day being essential. However, they may not necessarily frequent very expensive high-end restaurants. The high-end dining industry may not benefit from the "multiple entry" policy, but tea cafes, artsy cafes, or Instagram-worthy eateries are likely to be favored.
To revitalize the hotel industry, it seems that hotels face challenges in profiting from the "multiple entry" policy, as mainland tourists generally perceive Hong Kong hotels as expensive. Additionally, with convenient transportation, many opt for same-day trips without staying overnight. In contrast to larger hotels, some unique and affordable boutique hotels may capture the hearts of mainland tourists, potentially breaking the pattern of no overnight stays.
I believe that revitalizing the hotel industry relies on hosting more large-scale events and international conferences. The SAR government has been proactive in organizing such events, including the Hong Kong Sevens Rugby Tournament, Art Basel, the Hong Kong Golf Open, all of which have been highly successful. The eagerly anticipated Coldplay concert in April next year is another example of such events that draw attention across Hong Kong.
Furthermore, various industries have also organized numerous international conferences and summits, including the International Financial Leaders Investment Summit, University Presidents Summit, Hong Kong Maritime Week, and international conferences within specific professional fields, such as The 11th Asia and Pacific Regional Conference of the International Association of Prosecutors. While these summits may not bring in massive crowds, they attract high-end travelers who stay in Hong Kong for several days, patronize hotels, and dine in upscale restaurants, effectively driving high-end consumption.
With the new Secretary for Culture, Sports and Tourism, Rosanna Law Shuk-pui, taking office, her past performances as Permanent Secretary for Housing have been bold and innovative. Known for her approachability and being a fan of MIRROR, it is hoped that she will leverage her audience-oriented perspective to devise more ideas to attract mainland tourists to Hong Kong for travel, consumption, shopping, dining, and lodging, maximizing the benefits of the "multiple entry" policy.
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俄烏戰爭最危險一刻 / The Most Dangerous Moment in the Russia-Ukraine War
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當全球注意力聚焦在特朗普勝選及組閣，俄烏戰爭也正進入最危險階段。有分析指出，俄軍自2022 年烏克蘭戰爭爆發以來，目前正以最快速度在烏克蘭戰場上推進，光是過去一個月就佔領相當於半個倫敦的烏克蘭領土。
今年10 月，朝鮮派遣約1.2 萬名士兵，協助俄羅斯大幅度收回庫爾斯克（Kursk）地區。拜登便以應對朝鮮參戰為由，於11 月17 日准許烏克蘭使用美國提供的陸軍戰術導彈（ATACMS）及英國製造的「暴風影」（Storm Shadow）導彈攻擊俄羅斯。值得注意的是， 俄羅斯外長拉夫羅夫（Sergei Lavrov） 在10 月接受《新聞周刊》（Newsweek ）採訪時，曾警告若美國及其北約盟友授權使用西方長程導彈攻擊俄羅斯領土等於「玩火」，可能會導致危險的後果。
拜登此舉顯然刺激了俄羅斯要回以顏色。俄羅斯在11 月21 日發射了射程可達約3000 至5000 公里的「榛樹」（Oreshnik）導彈，以高超音速攻擊烏克蘭第聶伯羅（Dnipro）的關鍵基礎設施。據路透社報道，普京表示此舉是烏克蘭使用美英導彈襲擊俄羅斯領土的回應。有外媒報道，俄羅斯已通知華盛頓將會作攻擊。
從戰局上看，烏克蘭連續丟掉多個戰略要地，似乎敗局已定。在美國允許基輔使用西方飛彈反擊之後，俄羅斯也開始試圖佔領更大的土地。事實上，俄羅斯已佔領約20% 的烏克蘭領土，包括扎波羅熱（Zaporizhzhia）、盧甘斯克（Luhansk），以及頓涅茨克（Donetsk）等多個戰略要地。單是在上周，俄羅斯便佔領了烏克蘭近235 平方公里土地，為今年以來最高單周紀錄。
有軍事專家指出，快接近3 年的俄烏衝突乃一長期消耗戰，人口及經濟實力較強的國家勝算較高，烏克蘭閃電進攻庫爾斯克及用英美導彈攻擊俄羅斯本土對扭轉戰局無大幫助。
The Most Dangerous Moment in the Russia-Ukraine War
While global attention is focused on Trump's election victory and cabinet formation, the Russia-Ukraine war is also entering its most dangerous phase. Some analyses suggest that since the outbreak of the Ukraine war in 2022, the Russian military is currently advancing at the fastest pace on the Ukrainian battlefield, having occupied Ukrainian territory equivalent to half of London in just the past month.
In October of this year, North Korea dispatched around 12,000 soldiers to assist Russia in significantly reclaiming the Kursk region. Biden, citing the need to respond to North Korea's involvement, authorized Ukraine on November 17 to use U.S.-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and British-made "Storm Shadow" missiles to attack Russia. It is worth noting that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in an interview with Newsweek in October, warned that authorizing the use of Western long-range missiles to attack Russian territory by the U.S. and its NATO allies is "playing with fire" and could lead to dangerous consequences.
Biden's move clearly provoked a strong response from Russia. On November 21, Russia launched the "Oreshnik" missile with a range of approximately 3,000 to 5,000 kilometers, targeting critical infrastructure in Dnipro, Ukraine with hypersonic speed. According to Reuters, Putin stated that this action was a response to Ukraine's use of American and British missiles to attack Russian territory. Some foreign media reports indicate that Russia has notified Washington that an attack will be carried out.
From a strategic standpoint, Ukraine has lost several key positions in succession, seemingly facing inevitable defeat. Following the U.S. authorization for Kyiv to retaliate with Western missiles, Russia has also begun attempts to occupy even more territory. In fact, Russia has already occupied about 20% of Ukrainian territory, including strategic locations such as Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, and Donetsk. Just last week, Russia seized nearly 235 square kilometers of Ukrainian land, marking the highest single-week record this year.
Military experts point out that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, nearing its third year, is a prolonged war of attrition, where countries with stronger populations and economic capabilities have a higher chance of success. Ukraine's lightning attack on Kursk and the use of British and American missiles to attack Russian mainland are seen as not significantly helpful in altering the course of the conflict.
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On Dec 13, President Xi Jinping, accompanied by three Politburo members, received an annual performance report on Hong Kong's economy, from Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu. In a brief press statement, President Xi gave full recognition to Lee for accomplishing the historic task of enacting local legislation to implement Article 23 of the Basic Law. President Xi also highlighted other significant aspects of Lee's work, including reinvigorating the economy, spurring development, striving to resolve housing, improving on health and other livelihood issues, strengthening external engagement and cooperation, and enhancing Hong Kong's international influence. The Hong Kong Special Administrative government's progress in consolidating a positive trend was appreciated, he said.
It is significant that international engagement and enhancement of Hong Kong's international influence were recognized as important areas of the government's work. The HKSAR as a whole has indeed accomplished much in reclaiming its pivotal position as an international meeting place. Government agencies and nongovernmental organizations have joined hands to bring reputable international bodies and global leaders to Hong Kong to engage in dialogues on a wide gamut of financial, economic, technological, environmental and geopolitical issues. Xi's words are a timely reminder that Hong Kong must not lose sight of its unique international character.
The messages embedded in paragraph two of the statement encapsulate the essence of the central government's expectations. In line with the resolution adopted at the third plenary session of the 20th Communist Party of China Central Committee on further deepening reform comprehensively for advancing Chinese modernization, Hong Kong must grasp the historic opportunity to fully utilize its advantages under "one country, two systems". In particular, Hong Kong was urged to implement reform to align its development with national strategies. Reshaping the economy and unleashing more new quality productive forces were identified as priority tasks.
The call for reform is not new. During his meeting with business leaders in Shenzhen on Nov 10, Xia Baolong, director of the Hong Kong and Macao Work Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, warned that Hong Kong could not expect to continue relying on the old playbook. The HKSAR must accelerate reform to enhance its tourism appeal and grow its tech-based industries, and its traditional advantages as a maritime, aviation and urban hub must be preserved, he said.
The importance of strengthening Hong Kong's financial services, and trade and logistics sectors cannot be over-emphasized. Research by a leading state-owned bank estimates that in 2022, the two sectors accounted for 45 percent of Hong Kong's GDP. The contribution of the tourism sector is much lower on a per capita basis, but it provides large numbers of low-skilled jobs. Inbound tourism is also vital for boosting the local retail and catering industries.
Since Hong Kong's post-pandemic re-opening in February 2023, a combination of factors including changing lifestyles, a strong local currency, and Hong Kong residents' love of outbound travel have combined to dampen the tourism industry's recovery. Weak retail spending and restaurant receipts have caused Hong Kong's economic growth rate to slow to an estimated anemic 2.6 percent.
Xia's comments laid bare the central government's anxiety about Hong Kong's slow progress in technological development and lack of innovation in tourism promotion. Against this background, and the need to safeguard Hong Kong's traditional position as a leading maritime, aviation and transport hub, on Dec 5, Lee dropped a bombshell by announcing the replacement of the two bureau directors responsible for tourism and transport and logistics with younger and more dynamic officials.
Under the political appointment system introduced in 2002, the replacement of bureau directors assessed as under-performing has not been uncommon. Yet this time round, it is evident that a conscious decision was made to appoint veteran civil servants to take the helm. The promotion of women is significant. Even though the HKSAR government does not have an affirmative action program to promote women or minorities, with the appointment of Mable Chan Mei-bo and Rosanna Law Shuk-pui as bureau directors by dint of their hard work, seven out of the 15 bureau director positions, or more than 46 percent, are now filled by women, the largest proportion since 1997.
The appointments have largely been welcomed by the community and the media. There is a general feeling that meritocracy is back. The business community wants leaders who are decisive in implementing reform and supporting industry. The inadequate attention paid to the maritime sector has long been a sore point. With the completion of the third runway, stronger support for the aviation sector is required. Revitalizing the tourism sector also needs bolder initiatives, better judgement and speedier responses. Officials who can communicate with the media and show a common touch are particularly welcome. The two women directors are in their honeymoon period. The first hundred days will test their ability to survive and thrive.
Leadership makes a difference, but the HKSAR government faces other formidable hurdles in its drive to rebuild the economy. The building out of the northern metropolis is taking too long and costing too much. The government pins high hopes on the construction of the San Tin Technopole, a 540-hectare tech park that would help propel and integrate Hong Kong's tech development with the Chinese mainland. Stage one of the works alone, which consists of site formation and provision of roads and other infrastructure, will cost over HK$27 billion. The site will not be ready for occupation until 2031 at the earliest. Given the rapid pace of technological development, Hong Kong will have a lot of catching up to do when the tech park opens.
It is also time for the government to face its fiscal challenges head-on. The government faces a fiscal deficit for the current financial year in the order of HK$100 billion, and by some accounts, including debt issued, of around HK$200 billion. The government needs to bite the bullet and put forward a concrete plan for restoring fiscal balance.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
It is significant that international engagement and enhancement of Hong Kong's international influence were recognized as important areas of the government's work. The HKSAR as a whole has indeed accomplished much in reclaiming its pivotal position as an international meeting place. ... Xi's words are a timely reminder that Hong Kong must not lose sight of its unique international character.
一簽多行拔頭籌 後勁還看新局長 / Multiple Entry Visa Facilitates Hong Kong Travel Boom; Tourism Momentum Depends on New Minister
2024年終結前，中央政府又向香港送大禮。11月29日，中華人民共和國出入境管理局宣布，「自2024年12月1日起，深圳市戶籍居民和居住證持有人可以申請辦理赴香港旅遊『一簽多行』簽注，在一年內可不限次數往來香港地區，每次在香港逗留不超過七天。」這對香港旅遊業而言無疑是大好消息，也是特區政府及行政長官爭取多時的成果。
「港迪」賽馬受捧 文旅追落後
新措施實施一星期，根據入境事務處的記錄，12月1日至7日這七天的入境內地訪客總人次為648758人次，比前一周即11月24日至30日的620502人次，增加了28256人次。若單計周末，12月7日的入境內地訪客有145034人次，比上周六11月30日的138180人次，增加了6854人次，反映新措施起步成效不俗。的而且確，我走在街上、商場裏，都見到很多看似是內地旅客，特別是有很多年輕旅客，大家來香港感受聖誕氣氛。
大家都會記得，今次不是首次推行「一簽多行」。2003年香港面對金融海嘯及「沙士」的衝擊，中央政府便以「自由行」、「一簽多行」惠港，香港經濟谷底反彈，後來衍生各種矛盾衝突，在2015年時叫停了「一簽多行」，改為「一周一行」。
今次再實施「一簽多行」，雖然社會上偶有聲音擔憂會讓水貨客、拖喼客逼爆北區等問題重臨；但是時而易世，今時今日，內地旅客的旅遊及購物習慣經已改變，加上內地網購盛行，內地旅客來港狂掃貨以至逼爆街道的「盛況」相信不會再現。
我認為今次重推「一簽多行」，勢必增加內地來港旅客的人流。根據《深圳市2023年國民經濟和社會發展統計公報》，深圳市常住人口有1700多萬人，當中「深圳市戶籍居民」有600多萬人，而「深圳市居住證持有人」即非戶籍居民更有約1200萬人，我相信他們非常樂意來香港旅遊，來感受和深圳不一樣的城市氛圍，讓市面變得熱鬧起來。
踏進12月這個聖誕旺季，各大商場別樹一幟的燈飾、擺設最能吸睛，期望各大商場熱情積極吸引人流。不過，內地旅客購物模式改變，尤其是年輕旅客，他們來感受香港這個國際大都市的魅力，既不是來掃奶粉尿片，也不是來狂買高端名牌，因此不會帶動高端消費，反而具香港特色的文旅產品能讓他們掏腰包，也能豐富他們的香港體驗。內地各省市的文旅紀念品超前得很，香港在這方面要加把勁。
除了逛商場，內地旅客喜歡觀光體驗，特別是深圳以至在內地鮮有的體驗，就更有吸引力，例如剛在沙田馬場舉行的浪琴香港國際賽事（12月8日）便是特區政府推動賽馬旅遊的首場國際賽，吸引了6000多名內地旅客入場。
另外，他們特別喜歡「港迪」（香港迪士尼樂園），認為「港迪」能保持美國迪士尼樂園的風格，較原汁原味，管理也較好。在2023年11月開幕的全球首個《魔雪奇緣》主題園區「魔雪奇緣世界」更是吸引大量內地旅客朝聖的王牌園區。
須主辦更多大型國際盛事
海洋公園現在坐擁6隻國寶大熊貓，除了「盈盈」、「樂樂」，今年8月出生的港產大熊貓龍鳳胎在11月23日舉行了「百日宴」，又經常在直播中放閃，不論旅客或港人都被「家姐細佬」萌化了。至於中央贈港的「安安」和「可可」自9月底來港後，亦剛在12月7日舉行了「大熊貓亮相儀式」；加上在尖沙咀星光大道舉行的《PANDA GO！香港遊》全港最大型熊貓展，估計熊貓風潮會流行一陣子，不過熊貓對內地旅客而言沒那麼大的新鮮感，長遠而言可能將吸引東南亞旅客。
旅客來港總要醫肚，一日兩至三餐少不了，惟他們未必會光顧非常昂貴的高級餐廳食肆，高端餐飲業未必能從「一簽多行」措施受惠，但是茶餐廳、文青Cafe，或是網紅打卡店會受青睞。
最後，環顧零售、餐飲和酒店業，似乎酒店業最難以從「一簽多行」措施獲利，皆因內地旅客普遍認為香港酒店價格昂貴，加上交通便利，他們大可選擇即日來回，不留宿不過夜。相對於各家大酒店，反而一些別出心裁價格相宜的精品旅館更討內地旅客歡心，有可能突破他們不過夜的格局。
我認為振興酒店業要靠主辦更多大型盛事及國際會議。其實特區政府在舉辦盛事方面十分努力，香港國際七人欖球賽、巴塞爾藝術展（Art Basel）、香港高爾夫球公開賽等均十分成功，來年4月的Coldplay演唱會更是全港引頸以待。
此外，各行各業亦舉辦了不少國際會議、高峰論壇，包括國際金融領袖投資峰會、大學校長高峰論壇、香港海運周等，以至專業界別的國際會議，例如第十一屆國際檢察官協會亞洲及太平洋地區會議（The 11th Asia and Pacific Regional Conference of the International Association of Prosecutors）等等。這類峰會不會帶來龐大人流，但會帶來高端旅客，他們會在香港逗留多天，會住宿酒店，到貴價餐廳晚膳宴客，對於帶動高端消費有實際效用。
適逢新的文化體育及旅遊局局長羅淑佩上任，有見她在擔任運輸署署長、房屋局常任秘書長兼房屋署署長期間，表現非常勇猛，敢做敢創新，加上她為人親民貼地，又是MIRROR粉絲，期望她能從「受眾」的角度出發，想出更多吸引內地旅客來港旅遊、消費、購物、飲食，以至留宿的點子，讓「一簽多行」達致最大效益。
Multiple Entry Visa Facilitates Hong Kong Travel Boom; Tourism Momentum Depends on New Minister
Just before the end of 2024, the central government once again sent a significant gift to Hong Kong. On November 29, the Exit and Entry Administration of the People's Republic of China announced, "Starting from December 1, 2024, residents of Shenzhen with household registration and residence permits can apply for a 'multiple entry' visa for travel to Hong Kong. They can enter and exit the Hong Kong region an unlimited number of times within a year, with each stay in Hong Kong not exceeding seven days." This is undoubtedly great news for the Hong Kong tourism industry and a long-awaited achievement for the SAR government and the Chief Executive.
"Rise in Popularity of 'Hong Kong Disney Theme Park plus Horse-racing while Tourism Lags Behind"
After the implementation of the new measures for a week, according to records from the Immigration Department, the total number of mainland visitors entering Hong Kong from December 1 to 7 was 648,758, an increase of 28,256 compared to the previous week of November 24 to 30, which saw 620,502 visitors. Specifically, on December 7, there were 145,034 mainland visitors entering Hong Kong, up by 6,854 compared to the previous Saturday, November 30, indicating a promising start to the new measures. Indeed, it is noticeable that many mainland visitors, especially young ones, can be seen on the streets and in shopping malls, all coming to Hong Kong to experience the Christmas atmosphere.
It is worth noting that this is not the first time the "multiple entry" policy has been implemented. In 2003, facing the impact of the financial crisis and the SARS epidemic, the central government introduced the "individual visit scheme" and "multiple entry" policies to support Hong Kong. The rebound of the Hong Kong economy from its lowest point was seen after these measures were implemented. However, various conflicts arose later, leading to the suspension of the "multiple entry" policy in 2015, replaced by the "one trip per week" policy.
"Although there are occasional concerns in society that the reintroduction of the 'multiple entry' policy may lead to problems such as resurfacing parallel trading activities and overcrowding in the Northern District, times have changed. Today, mainland visitors' travel and shopping habits have evolved, coupled with the prevalence of online shopping in the mainland. The 'shopping spree' that used to congest the streets is unlikely to reoccur.
I believe that the reimplementation of the 'multiple entry' policy this time will undoubtedly increase the influx of mainland visitors to Hong Kong. According to the Shenzhen Statistical Yearbook 2023, Shenzhen has a population of over 17 million, with over 6 million registered residents and around 12 million non-registered residents holding residence permits. I believe they are very willing to travel to Hong Kong to experience a different city atmosphere from Shenzhen, making the streets lively once again."
"As we step into the bustling Christmas season of December, the unique decorations and displays in major shopping malls are the most eye-catching, with hopes that these malls will actively attract crowds. However, mainland visitors' shopping habits have changed, especially among the younger travelers. They come to experience the charm of Hong Kong as an international metropolis, not solely to buy baby formula or luxury brands. Therefore, they are not driving high-end consumption but are more inclined to spend on unique cultural and tourism products that reflect Hong Kong's essence, enriching their Hong Kong experience. Mainland provinces and cities excel in cultural and tourism souvenirs, an area where Hong Kong needs to put in more effort.
In addition to mall-hopping, mainland visitors enjoy sightseeing experiences, especially those unique to Hong Kong or rare in mainland China. Events such as the Longines Hong Kong International Races held at Sha Tin Racecourse (on December 😎 have been promoted by the SAR government as the first international race to boost horse racing tourism, drawing over 6,000 mainland visitors to the event."
"They particularly enjoy 'Hong-Di' (Hong Kong Disneyland), believing that it maintains the style of the American Disneyland parks, offering an authentic experience with better management. The world's first 'Frozen' themed area, 'Frozen World,' which opened in November 2023, has been a flagship attraction drawing a large number of mainland visitors for pilgrimage."
We need to host more large-scale international events.
Currently, Ocean Park is home to six national treasure giant pandas, including "Ying Ying" and "Le Le." The locally born giant panda twins, born in August this year, had their "100 Days Celebration" on November 23. They often make appearances on live streams, melting the hearts of both tourists and locals. As for the pandas gifted to Hong Kong by the central government, "An An" and "Ke Ke," since arriving in Hong Kong at the end of September, they also had their "Giant Panda Debut Ceremony" on December 7. In addition to this, the largest panda exhibition in Hong Kong, "PANDA GO! Hong Kong Tour," held on the Avenue of Stars in Tsim Sha Tsui, is expected to be popular for a while. However, pandas may not be as novel for mainland tourists, and in the long run, they may attract tourists from Southeast Asia.
Travelers coming to Hong Kong will inevitably need to eat, with two to three meals a day being essential. However, they may not necessarily frequent very expensive high-end restaurants. The high-end dining industry may not benefit from the "multiple entry" policy, but tea cafes, artsy cafes, or Instagram-worthy eateries are likely to be favored.
To revitalize the hotel industry, it seems that hotels face challenges in profiting from the "multiple entry" policy, as mainland tourists generally perceive Hong Kong hotels as expensive. Additionally, with convenient transportation, many opt for same-day trips without staying overnight. In contrast to larger hotels, some unique and affordable boutique hotels may capture the hearts of mainland tourists, potentially breaking the pattern of no overnight stays.
I believe that revitalizing the hotel industry relies on hosting more large-scale events and international conferences. The SAR government has been proactive in organizing such events, including the Hong Kong Sevens Rugby Tournament, Art Basel, the Hong Kong Golf Open, all of which have been highly successful. The eagerly anticipated Coldplay concert in April next year is another example of such events that draw attention across Hong Kong.
Furthermore, various industries have also organized numerous international conferences and summits, including the International Financial Leaders Investment Summit, University Presidents Summit, Hong Kong Maritime Week, and international conferences within specific professional fields, such as The 11th Asia and Pacific Regional Conference of the International Association of Prosecutors. While these summits may not bring in massive crowds, they attract high-end travelers who stay in Hong Kong for several days, patronize hotels, and dine in upscale restaurants, effectively driving high-end consumption.
With the new Secretary for Culture, Sports and Tourism, Rosanna Law Shuk-pui, taking office, her past performances as Permanent Secretary for Housing have been bold and innovative. Known for her approachability and being a fan of MIRROR, it is hoped that she will leverage her audience-oriented perspective to devise more ideas to attract mainland tourists to Hong Kong for travel, consumption, shopping, dining, and lodging, maximizing the benefits of the "multiple entry" policy.
當全球注意力聚焦在特朗普勝選及組閣，俄烏戰爭也正進入最危險階段。有分析指出，俄軍自2022 年烏克蘭戰爭爆發以來，目前正以最快速度在烏克蘭戰場上推進，光是過去一個月就佔領相當於半個倫敦的烏克蘭領土。
今年10 月，朝鮮派遣約1.2 萬名士兵，協助俄羅斯大幅度收回庫爾斯克（Kursk）地區。拜登便以應對朝鮮參戰為由，於11 月17 日准許烏克蘭使用美國提供的陸軍戰術導彈（ATACMS）及英國製造的「暴風影」（Storm Shadow）導彈攻擊俄羅斯。值得注意的是， 俄羅斯外長拉夫羅夫（Sergei Lavrov） 在10 月接受《新聞周刊》（Newsweek ）採訪時，曾警告若美國及其北約盟友授權使用西方長程導彈攻擊俄羅斯領土等於「玩火」，可能會導致危險的後果。
拜登此舉顯然刺激了俄羅斯要回以顏色。俄羅斯在11 月21 日發射了射程可達約3000 至5000 公里的「榛樹」（Oreshnik）導彈，以高超音速攻擊烏克蘭第聶伯羅（Dnipro）的關鍵基礎設施。據路透社報道，普京表示此舉是烏克蘭使用美英導彈襲擊俄羅斯領土的回應。有外媒報道，俄羅斯已通知華盛頓將會作攻擊。
從戰局上看，烏克蘭連續丟掉多個戰略要地，似乎敗局已定。在美國允許基輔使用西方飛彈反擊之後，俄羅斯也開始試圖佔領更大的土地。事實上，俄羅斯已佔領約20% 的烏克蘭領土，包括扎波羅熱（Zaporizhzhia）、盧甘斯克（Luhansk），以及頓涅茨克（Donetsk）等多個戰略要地。單是在上周，俄羅斯便佔領了烏克蘭近235 平方公里土地，為今年以來最高單周紀錄。
有軍事專家指出，快接近3 年的俄烏衝突乃一長期消耗戰，人口及經濟實力較強的國家勝算較高，烏克蘭閃電進攻庫爾斯克及用英美導彈攻擊俄羅斯本土對扭轉戰局無大幫助。
The Most Dangerous Moment in the Russia-Ukraine War
While global attention is focused on Trump's election victory and cabinet formation, the Russia-Ukraine war is also entering its most dangerous phase. Some analyses suggest that since the outbreak of the Ukraine war in 2022, the Russian military is currently advancing at the fastest pace on the Ukrainian battlefield, having occupied Ukrainian territory equivalent to half of London in just the past month.
In October of this year, North Korea dispatched around 12,000 soldiers to assist Russia in significantly reclaiming the Kursk region. Biden, citing the need to respond to North Korea's involvement, authorized Ukraine on November 17 to use U.S.-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and British-made "Storm Shadow" missiles to attack Russia. It is worth noting that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in an interview with Newsweek in October, warned that authorizing the use of Western long-range missiles to attack Russian territory by the U.S. and its NATO allies is "playing with fire" and could lead to dangerous consequences.
Biden's move clearly provoked a strong response from Russia. On November 21, Russia launched the "Oreshnik" missile with a range of approximately 3,000 to 5,000 kilometers, targeting critical infrastructure in Dnipro, Ukraine with hypersonic speed. According to Reuters, Putin stated that this action was a response to Ukraine's use of American and British missiles to attack Russian territory. Some foreign media reports indicate that Russia has notified Washington that an attack will be carried out.
From a strategic standpoint, Ukraine has lost several key positions in succession, seemingly facing inevitable defeat. Following the U.S. authorization for Kyiv to retaliate with Western missiles, Russia has also begun attempts to occupy even more territory. In fact, Russia has already occupied about 20% of Ukrainian territory, including strategic locations such as Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, and Donetsk. Just last week, Russia seized nearly 235 square kilometers of Ukrainian land, marking the highest single-week record this year.
Military experts point out that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, nearing its third year, is a prolonged war of attrition, where countries with stronger populations and economic capabilities have a higher chance of success. Ukraine's lightning attack on Kursk and the use of British and American missiles to attack Russian mainland are seen as not significantly helpful in altering the course of the conflict.