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Article 23: after the victory lap, what’s next for Hong Kong? / 《基本法》第二十三條：成功立法之後，香港將何去何從？
文章
2024 年 3 月 25 日
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Article 23 of the Basic Law, a law made by China’s National People’s Congress which sets out the constitutional arrangements for Hong Kong, requires the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region to enact laws on its own to prohibit seven offences which threaten national security.
Despite the best intentions of the officials in charge, the first campaign to implement Article 23 ended in mass protests in mid-2003, and the national security bill was aborted after the Liberal Party, which held eight votes in the Legislative Council then, withdrew its support. The bill lapsed at the end of the first term of Tung Chee-hwa’s administration.
National security legislation became a political taboo that successive chief executives were reluctant to touch.
To avoid controversy and get on the right side of the then powerful “pro-democracy” bloc in Legco, Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, who succeeded Tung in 2005, prioritised democratic reform instead of national security.
He succeeded in securing legislative approval for a constitutional reform package in 2010. The reform created five “super seats” in the legislature, in effect five at-large constituencies spanning the city.
Tsang was replaced by Leung Chun-ying, an avowed patriot, in 2012. Shortly after Leung took over, his agenda was thrown off course by popular protests against the government’s plan to implement national education in schools.
The new subject and the funding for its implementation had been approved by Legco, but with Legco elections coming up that September, the pro-democracy camp smeared national education as “brainwashing” to appeal to voters. After thousands of protesters laid siege to the government headquarters for 10 days, Leung withdrew the subject.
The pushback against national education alarmed Beijing. A greater shock to the system came in the autumn of 2014, when protesters laid siege to Central, Admiralty, Causeway Bay and Mong Kok to put pressure on Beijing to relax the criteria for selecting the chief executive by universal suffrage. After 79 days of illegal occupation which paralysed large swathes of Hong Kong, the demonstrators ran out of public support and were peacefully dispersed.
But by 2015, to Beijing’s even greater alarm, a Hong Kong independence movement appeared to be sprouting. In his policy address on January 14, 2015, Leung chided Undergrad, a time-honoured publication of the students of the University of Hong Kong, for spreading the idea of self-determination in a book titled Hong Kong Nationalism.
A group of students who took part in the 2014 Occupy protests set up a Hong Kong National Party in 2016. It was eventually prohibited by the secretary for security on national security grounds under the Societies Ordinance in September 2018.
Challenges to Beijing’s authority continued in 2016, when a group of newly elected legislators deliberately defied Beijing by taking their oath of allegiance in an insulting way. Thereafter, following the National People’s Congress Standing Committee’s interpretation of Article 104 of the Basic Law governing the oath-taking requirement, those six legislators were disqualified.
In 2017, Leung was replaced by Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor, a career civil servant, who appeared to have more popular support and was on better terms with the pro-democracy bloc in the legislature, which had solidified into a highly potent opposition for filibustering and blocking the government’s agenda.
Lam assumed office in mid-2017 without putting forward any timetable for implementing Article 23 legislation. By the end of 2018, voices from Beijing urging Hong Kong to fulfil its constitutional duty – such as former senior officials in charge of Hong Kong and Macau affairs Chen Zuo’er and Wang Guangya and then director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office Zhang Xiaoming – were getting louder and louder.
Yet Lam chose instead to prioritise legislation on fugitive offenders, to enable Hong Kong to send fugitives hiding in the city to mainland China, Taiwan and Macau.
This piece of legislation proved even more controversial than the national security bill of 2003. It triggered mass protests, which became more violent over months, with stronger anti-China overtones and whiffs of Hong Kong independence.
The riots stopped after Beijing enacted a law to safeguard national security in Hong Kong.
Although China’s national security legislation achieved immediate success in quelling the rebellion, Hong Kong had yet to fulfil its constitutional, legal and moral duty to safeguard national security, an obligation which had been outstanding for almost 27 years.
Offences like treason, sedition, espionage and theft of state secrets have been on our statute books for decades. But many provisions are ineffective and outdated.
For both constitutional and practical reasons, Hong Kong needs to update existing laws, and introduce new offences in accordance with the holistic view of national security introduced by President Xi Jinping on April 15, 2014 and international trends.
The current international trend is to guard against external interference which does not necessarily adopt forceful means, but can include political infiltration, electoral interference, open lobbying or other more subtle means. Australia, Singapore and the United Kingdom have all enacted new laws to pre-empt improper external interference.
Hong Kong has now introduced a similar offence of external interference endangering national security. Given that it is a new offence, concerns have understandably been raised by academia, professional bodies, business chambers and think tanks which thrive on external liaison.
In passing the national security bill, Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu and his administration have pulled off a historic feat which none of their predecessors could; 6.53pm on March 19 will go down in Hong Kong’s history as a milestone. But, after the victory lap, much explanation and clarification are needed to assuage concerns. Let the campaign to tell the real story about Hong Kong’s national security law begin.
中譯本 ：《基本法》第二十三條：成功立法之後，香港將何去何從？
《基本法》二十三條是中國全國人民代表大會通過的一條法例，決定香港的憲制安排。《基本法》二十三條要求香港特別行政區自行立法，禁止七項危害國家安全的罪行。盡管主管官員有良好意願，但2003年中實施第一輪第二十三條立法的過程，最終還是引發了大規模抗議活動，《維護國家安全條例草案》在當時擁有立法會八個席位的自由黨撤回支持後被逼中止，該法案在董建華政府第一屆任期結束時失效。
國家安全立法從此成為各任特首經常觸碰的政治禁區，幾任特首都不願再提起這個敏感議題。
2005年繼任的曾蔭權選擇有異於董建華的做法，為避免爭議並得到當時立法會泛民勢力的支持，他選擇優先推動民主制度改革，而非國家安全立法。他成功在2010年使立法會通過一個憲制改革方案，該改革在立法會設立五個“超級選區”，實質上為全香港範圍的五個選區。
2012年，曾蔭權被旗幟鮮明的愛國者梁振英接替。不過，梁剛繼承特首職務，其改革議程就被學生對政府推行國民教育計劃的大規模抗議帶離正軌。盡管立法會已通過了國民教育課程和撥款，但隨著9月將到來的立法會選舉，泛民陣營宣傳國民教育是「洗腦」以爭取選民支持。數千名抗議者連續包圍政府總部長達10天後，梁振英終撤回該課程。對國民教育的反對震驚了北京。2014年秋天，抗議者包圍中環、金鐘、銅鑼灣和旺角，向北京施加壓力要求推動普選，改變行政長官選舉辦法，這一次衝擊更大。79天非法占領及堵路香港大片地區，但抗議活動最後因失去公眾支持得以和平結束。
到了2015年，北京的憂慮更甚，香港獨立運動顯然開始萌芽。同年1月14日的施政報告中，梁振英批評香港大學學生報《學苑》通過一本名為《香港民族論》的書本傳播自決想法。參與2014年占領運動的學生於2016年成立了香港民族黨。2018年9月，這組織最終因「危害國家安全」被保安局局長根據社團條例取締。2016年，一些新當選的立法會議員故意以冒犯性方式宣誓，繼續挑戰北京權威。此後，根據全國人大常委會對《基本法》第104條有關宣誓規定的解釋，這六名議員被取消資格。2017年，梁振英被公務員林鄭月娥取代。林鄭似乎獲得更多民意支持，與立法會泛民勢力也處於較和睦狀態。此時立法會反對派已經壯大為阻撓政府施政的龐大力量。林鄭於2017年中任職而未提出實施《基本法》二十三條的時間表。2018年底，來自北京的聲音不斷擴大，包括曾負責港澳事務的陳佐洱和王光亞，以及國務院港澳事務辦公室主任張曉明都在督促香港履行憲制責任。
然而，林鄭選擇優先推動通過移交逃犯條例，以便香港能將藏匿的逃犯送往內地、台灣和澳門。
這次立法引發比2003年《維護國家安全條例草案》更大爭議。它觸發了持續近半年的大規模抗議活動，部分活動帶有更強烈的反中色彩和推動港獨味道，暴力事件在《香港國安法》出台後才停止。盡管北京立《國安法》成功遏制動亂，但香港在憲制和道義責任上，尤其是確保國家安全這一即將滿27年仍未履行的義務方面，仍需努力。香港法律包括叛國罪、煽顛罪、間諜罪和竊取國家秘密罪等法律條款已經存在多年，但其實不少條文經已過時及實效不足。
無論從憲法原則還是實際操作，香港都需要更新現有法律，並根據國家主席習近平2014年4月15日提出的總體國家安全觀和國際趨勢，引入新的罪行條款。當前國際趨勢下，要防範不必然采取武力但可能包括政治滲透、選舉干預、公開游說或其他更隱蔽方式的外部干預。澳州、新加坡和英國都制定了新的立法以預防外部干預。
因此香港需要引入新的國家安全罪行。例如有組織引導他人從事危害國家安全活動、在外國機構控制或指揮下從事危害國家安全活動等。這將有利於香港彌補長期以來在國家安全立法方面的不足，切實履行基本法賦予的責任。香港現時引入了類似的「外部干預危害國家安全罪」。由於這是新設立的罪行，學術界、專業團體、商會以及依賴外部聯絡的智庫都理所當然地提出了一些擔憂。
通過《維護國家安全條例草案》，時任行政長官李家超和政府實現了前任無法完成的歷史使命。2019年3月19日下午6點53分將載入香港史冊。但成功立法後，還需要更多解釋和澄清以釋除外界疑慮，向公眾解釋《香港國安法》真正意義的工作，現在才正式開始。
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近年，美國的非法移民問題愈發嚴重，當中又以美墨邊境問題最為棘手。根據美國海關及邊境保衛局（U.S. Customs and Border Protection）的統計，自2021年以來，當局在美墨邊境共截獲超過750萬宗偷渡個案。
大量非法入境者湧入，但美國當局未有制訂相應措施，使得事件醞釀成人道危機。恰逢美國11月舉行大選，移民問題再次成為熱門的選舉議題。諮詢公司蓋洛普（Gallup）於2月所做的一項民意調查顯示，約28%美國民眾認為邊境及移民問題是當前最重要的社會問題。
早前，特朗普及拜登不約而同地前往邊境城市視察訪問，並就移民問題隔空駁火。特朗普一如既往地強調這些外來者是罪犯及恐怖分子，不應被允許進入美國。拜登則指摘由共和黨控制的眾議院未能通過邊境城市所尋求的資金和邊境政策改革，導致邊境城市未能擴大拘留設施，並提供更多資金來僱用更多邊防人員。
雖然雙方都企圖透過解決美墨邊境的難民危機來展示自己的政治手腕，吸引選民支持，但我認為，美國非法移民問題的複雜程度，非兩人的能力可以解決。
不少美國學者都認為，1965年通過的《移民和國籍法案》（Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965）是造成美墨邊境問題的其中一個原因。此前，美國一直採用「國家起源配額公式」（National Origins Formula）為每個國家分配特定數量的移民配額，以控制國內人口的構成。但《法案》摒棄了有關做法，給予非西歐國家更多移民配額，讓美國公民家庭團聚並吸引各行業的專業人才到美國生活，卻為日後美國移民問題埋下禍根。
下期將展開詳述。
In recent years, illegal immigration issues in the US have become increasingly severe, especially concerning the US-Mexico border. According to statistics from US Customs and Border Protection, since 2021, authorities at the US-Mexico border have intercepted over 7.5 million smuggling cases.
With large numbers of undocumented migrants flooding in, but inadequate measures from US authorities, the situation has escalated into a humanitarian crisis. Coinciding with the US midterm elections in November, immigration issues again became a hot election topic. A February public opinion poll by Gallup found about 28% of Americans view border and immigration issues as the most important social problem currently.
Recently, both Trump and Biden independently visited border towns for inspections, sparring remotely over immigration issues. Trump reiterated as always that these outsiders are criminals and terrorists who should not be allowed into the US. Biden accused the Republican-controlled House of Representatives for failing to pass funding and border policy reforms sought by border towns, preventing expansion of detention facilities and provision of more funds to hire more border protection personnel.
While both sides aim to demonstrate their political acumen and attract voter support by addressing the refugee crisis at the US-Mexico border, I believe the complexity of illegal immigration issues in the US is beyond the ability of the two to solve.
Many US scholars believe the 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act was one of the causes of issues at the US-Mexico border. Previously, the US had adopted the "National Origins Formula" to allocate a specific number of immigrant quotas to each country in order to control the composition of the domestic population. But the Act abandoned this practice and granted more immigrant quotas to non-Western countries, allowing family reunification for US citizens and attracting professionals from various industries to live in the US, but also sowing the seeds of future US immigration problems.
Details will follow in the next issue.
隨著《維護國家安全條例》在上周二（3月19日）獲全票三讀通過，繼而在上周六（3月23日）「吉日」刊憲，香港特別行政區終於成功履行其憲制責任。中央港澳工作辦公室主任、國務院港澳事務辦公室主任夏寶龍在深圳會見行政長官李家超、律政司司長林定國、保安局局長鄧炳強、立法會主席梁君彥等一行人，聽取工作匯報，我作為行政會議召集人及立法會議員也在席，與有榮焉。
這次並非夏主任首度表達對香港事務的關注，例如2月全國兩會召開前，夏主任便親自來港，考察調研了7天（2月22日至28日），深入接觸社會各界，分別與特區政府高層官員、行政會議成員、立法會議員、區議員、法律界、金融界、商界、愛國愛港組織等會面，又深入社區，飲茶、視察「社區客廳」等等，做到察民情、聽民意。
行程當中最令我有深刻感受的，是夏主任親自走訪九龍獅子山郊野公園，近觀獅子山（2月24日），以及與40位香港青年人會面交流，還高唱《獅子山下》（2月27日），勉勵青年人要「抓緊不同機遇」。夏主任這舉措讓我十分感動，也讓我回想起歷代中央領導人訪港的畫面，不論此時彼刻，中央政府對香港的關愛始終如一。
除了夏寶龍和朱鎔基，中央領導人曾多次來港。例如2007年，時任國家主席胡錦濤便親自來港出席香港回歸祖國10周年大會，當年中央政府的新聞稿以「回歸十年中央領導關心香港，時刻把香港放在心上」為題。新聞稿提到「『挺』這個字在香港有『支持』的意思」，強調中央政府「一次次地公開挺港、挺特區政府，一次次及時伸出援手，使得香港踏平崎嶇」。例如1998年亞洲金融風暴，國際金融大鱷狙擊港元，時任國家主席江澤民宣布人民幣不貶值，堅定維護香港聯繫匯率制度；2003年「沙士」，時任國家主席胡錦濤和時任總理溫家寶迅速批示，要求在一周內向香港無償提供各類抗疫物資；同年與香港簽訂《內地與香港關於建立更緊密經貿關係的安排》(CEPA)，溫家寶親自來港探望淘大花園住戶，最後更推出「自由行」，以內地遊客來港消費振興香港經濟。
後來2008年金融海嘯，數到2019年黑暴後中央政府訂立《香港國安法》，新冠疫情期間派專家派醫護來港，還有數不清的援港抗疫物資；再到剛剛宣布擴大「自由行」城市包括青島和西安等等，中央政府做到了「挺」港和「時刻把香港放在心上」。
香港經濟的整體格局多年未變，主要仍是依賴金融、旅遊和地產；「沙士」時靠「自由行」，今日也是靠「自由行」；靠賣地增加庫房收入，樓市低迷便「撤辣」；反映香港經濟轉型進展緩慢。
經濟轉型的目標，我認為就是要達致國家主席習近平經常強調的「高質量發展」，即是除了國際金融、貿易、航運三大中心外，香港要加快成為國際創新科技中心，建設以科技為本的科創經濟。環顧世界，邊際利潤最高、最能帶動經濟增長、讓人民有較高收入的，都是科創企業。例如美籍華人黃仁勳(Jensen Huang)於1993年創辦的圖形芯片(GPU)企業英偉達(NVIDIA)，最近便超越了沙特阿拉伯國家石油公司，成為僅次於微軟和蘋果的全球第三大市值上市公司。因此，香港以「高質量發展」為目標是正確的。
此外，我認為中央領導人一再親自勉勵港人的背後，是反映他們擔心港人對自己、對香港信心不足。
舉例說，樂壇天后Taylor Swift在新加坡辦演唱會，便有很多分析解讀Taylor Swift為何「捨港取星」，彷彿香港是輸了給新加坡，殊不知「捨港取星」是偽命題，因為香港根本沒有加入競爭。
我認為香港不用妄自菲薄，更不用處處和新加坡或其他鄰近城市比較，反而要把握其獨特優勢，例如香港是個包融性強的多元化大都會，去年成功主辦亞洲區首次「同樂運動會」可見一斑。香港法庭竭力保障平等機會，包括性小眾人士(LGBT)權益、酷刑聲請者在香港會獲得人道對待等等。
香港有能力舉辦各類型盛事，帶動經濟收益，例如一連三天在粉嶺高球場舉辦的「LIV高爾夫職業巡迴賽香港站」，單是2億獎金便為特區政府帶來3000萬稅收，賽事吸引了來自30個國家地區的觀眾來港觀賽，帶旺酒店業、旅遊業，經濟效益相當大。此外，全球有逾110個國家地區轉播賽事，對宣傳香港的國際形象非常有利，這類國際盛事必須多搞多做。
法治是香港的基石，香港實行普通法制度，司法獨立，有九位德高望重的海外非常任法官；法官根據法例和證據作出裁決，控辯雙方若不服裁決可提上訴；最近法庭更推出網上直播，充分體現獨立性和透明度。
我希望港人明白，香港是從甚麼也不是的小漁村、英國人口中的 barren rock（不毛之地），經歷萬千風雨而走到今天，是國際金融中心、國際大都市，我們面對逆境堅毅不屈，就是獅子山精神。
夏主任在兩會召開前與港區人大政協會面，提出「零起點」思維，指香港要重新面對複雜形勢，重新出發。我認為是指在「一國兩制」下，中央政府實施全面管治權，香港則要有高度的主動性，主動思考自身核心優勢，思考如何強化優勢，如何和其他大灣區城市配合以達共贏。如今《維護國家安全條例草案》已刊憲，一切塵埃落定，香港重新立於「零起點」，今後必須卯足勁，拼經濟，繼續發光發熱。
Article 23 of the Basic Law, a law made by China’s National People’s Congress which sets out the constitutional arrangements for Hong Kong, requires the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region to enact laws on its own to prohibit seven offences which threaten national security.
Despite the best intentions of the officials in charge, the first campaign to implement Article 23 ended in mass protests in mid-2003, and the national security bill was aborted after the Liberal Party, which held eight votes in the Legislative Council then, withdrew its support. The bill lapsed at the end of the first term of Tung Chee-hwa’s administration.
National security legislation became a political taboo that successive chief executives were reluctant to touch.
To avoid controversy and get on the right side of the then powerful “pro-democracy” bloc in Legco, Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, who succeeded Tung in 2005, prioritised democratic reform instead of national security.
He succeeded in securing legislative approval for a constitutional reform package in 2010. The reform created five “super seats” in the legislature, in effect five at-large constituencies spanning the city.
Tsang was replaced by Leung Chun-ying, an avowed patriot, in 2012. Shortly after Leung took over, his agenda was thrown off course by popular protests against the government’s plan to implement national education in schools.
The new subject and the funding for its implementation had been approved by Legco, but with Legco elections coming up that September, the pro-democracy camp smeared national education as “brainwashing” to appeal to voters. After thousands of protesters laid siege to the government headquarters for 10 days, Leung withdrew the subject.
The pushback against national education alarmed Beijing. A greater shock to the system came in the autumn of 2014, when protesters laid siege to Central, Admiralty, Causeway Bay and Mong Kok to put pressure on Beijing to relax the criteria for selecting the chief executive by universal suffrage. After 79 days of illegal occupation which paralysed large swathes of Hong Kong, the demonstrators ran out of public support and were peacefully dispersed.
But by 2015, to Beijing’s even greater alarm, a Hong Kong independence movement appeared to be sprouting. In his policy address on January 14, 2015, Leung chided Undergrad, a time-honoured publication of the students of the University of Hong Kong, for spreading the idea of self-determination in a book titled Hong Kong Nationalism.
A group of students who took part in the 2014 Occupy protests set up a Hong Kong National Party in 2016. It was eventually prohibited by the secretary for security on national security grounds under the Societies Ordinance in September 2018.
Challenges to Beijing’s authority continued in 2016, when a group of newly elected legislators deliberately defied Beijing by taking their oath of allegiance in an insulting way. Thereafter, following the National People’s Congress Standing Committee’s interpretation of Article 104 of the Basic Law governing the oath-taking requirement, those six legislators were disqualified.
In 2017, Leung was replaced by Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor, a career civil servant, who appeared to have more popular support and was on better terms with the pro-democracy bloc in the legislature, which had solidified into a highly potent opposition for filibustering and blocking the government’s agenda.
Lam assumed office in mid-2017 without putting forward any timetable for implementing Article 23 legislation. By the end of 2018, voices from Beijing urging Hong Kong to fulfil its constitutional duty – such as former senior officials in charge of Hong Kong and Macau affairs Chen Zuo’er and Wang Guangya and then director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office Zhang Xiaoming – were getting louder and louder.
Yet Lam chose instead to prioritise legislation on fugitive offenders, to enable Hong Kong to send fugitives hiding in the city to mainland China, Taiwan and Macau.
This piece of legislation proved even more controversial than the national security bill of 2003. It triggered mass protests, which became more violent over months, with stronger anti-China overtones and whiffs of Hong Kong independence.
The riots stopped after Beijing enacted a law to safeguard national security in Hong Kong.
Although China’s national security legislation achieved immediate success in quelling the rebellion, Hong Kong had yet to fulfil its constitutional, legal and moral duty to safeguard national security, an obligation which had been outstanding for almost 27 years.
Offences like treason, sedition, espionage and theft of state secrets have been on our statute books for decades. But many provisions are ineffective and outdated.
For both constitutional and practical reasons, Hong Kong needs to update existing laws, and introduce new offences in accordance with the holistic view of national security introduced by President Xi Jinping on April 15, 2014 and international trends.
The current international trend is to guard against external interference which does not necessarily adopt forceful means, but can include political infiltration, electoral interference, open lobbying or other more subtle means. Australia, Singapore and the United Kingdom have all enacted new laws to pre-empt improper external interference.
Hong Kong has now introduced a similar offence of external interference endangering national security. Given that it is a new offence, concerns have understandably been raised by academia, professional bodies, business chambers and think tanks which thrive on external liaison.
In passing the national security bill, Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu and his administration have pulled off a historic feat which none of their predecessors could; 6.53pm on March 19 will go down in Hong Kong’s history as a milestone. But, after the victory lap, much explanation and clarification are needed to assuage concerns. Let the campaign to tell the real story about Hong Kong’s national security law begin.
中譯本 ：《基本法》第二十三條：成功立法之後，香港將何去何從？
《基本法》二十三條是中國全國人民代表大會通過的一條法例，決定香港的憲制安排。《基本法》二十三條要求香港特別行政區自行立法，禁止七項危害國家安全的罪行。盡管主管官員有良好意願，但2003年中實施第一輪第二十三條立法的過程，最終還是引發了大規模抗議活動，《維護國家安全條例草案》在當時擁有立法會八個席位的自由黨撤回支持後被逼中止，該法案在董建華政府第一屆任期結束時失效。
國家安全立法從此成為各任特首經常觸碰的政治禁區，幾任特首都不願再提起這個敏感議題。
2005年繼任的曾蔭權選擇有異於董建華的做法，為避免爭議並得到當時立法會泛民勢力的支持，他選擇優先推動民主制度改革，而非國家安全立法。他成功在2010年使立法會通過一個憲制改革方案，該改革在立法會設立五個“超級選區”，實質上為全香港範圍的五個選區。
2012年，曾蔭權被旗幟鮮明的愛國者梁振英接替。不過，梁剛繼承特首職務，其改革議程就被學生對政府推行國民教育計劃的大規模抗議帶離正軌。盡管立法會已通過了國民教育課程和撥款，但隨著9月將到來的立法會選舉，泛民陣營宣傳國民教育是「洗腦」以爭取選民支持。數千名抗議者連續包圍政府總部長達10天後，梁振英終撤回該課程。對國民教育的反對震驚了北京。2014年秋天，抗議者包圍中環、金鐘、銅鑼灣和旺角，向北京施加壓力要求推動普選，改變行政長官選舉辦法，這一次衝擊更大。79天非法占領及堵路香港大片地區，但抗議活動最後因失去公眾支持得以和平結束。
到了2015年，北京的憂慮更甚，香港獨立運動顯然開始萌芽。同年1月14日的施政報告中，梁振英批評香港大學學生報《學苑》通過一本名為《香港民族論》的書本傳播自決想法。參與2014年占領運動的學生於2016年成立了香港民族黨。2018年9月，這組織最終因「危害國家安全」被保安局局長根據社團條例取締。2016年，一些新當選的立法會議員故意以冒犯性方式宣誓，繼續挑戰北京權威。此後，根據全國人大常委會對《基本法》第104條有關宣誓規定的解釋，這六名議員被取消資格。2017年，梁振英被公務員林鄭月娥取代。林鄭似乎獲得更多民意支持，與立法會泛民勢力也處於較和睦狀態。此時立法會反對派已經壯大為阻撓政府施政的龐大力量。林鄭於2017年中任職而未提出實施《基本法》二十三條的時間表。2018年底，來自北京的聲音不斷擴大，包括曾負責港澳事務的陳佐洱和王光亞，以及國務院港澳事務辦公室主任張曉明都在督促香港履行憲制責任。
然而，林鄭選擇優先推動通過移交逃犯條例，以便香港能將藏匿的逃犯送往內地、台灣和澳門。
這次立法引發比2003年《維護國家安全條例草案》更大爭議。它觸發了持續近半年的大規模抗議活動，部分活動帶有更強烈的反中色彩和推動港獨味道，暴力事件在《香港國安法》出台後才停止。盡管北京立《國安法》成功遏制動亂，但香港在憲制和道義責任上，尤其是確保國家安全這一即將滿27年仍未履行的義務方面，仍需努力。香港法律包括叛國罪、煽顛罪、間諜罪和竊取國家秘密罪等法律條款已經存在多年，但其實不少條文經已過時及實效不足。
無論從憲法原則還是實際操作，香港都需要更新現有法律，並根據國家主席習近平2014年4月15日提出的總體國家安全觀和國際趨勢，引入新的罪行條款。當前國際趨勢下，要防範不必然采取武力但可能包括政治滲透、選舉干預、公開游說或其他更隱蔽方式的外部干預。澳州、新加坡和英國都制定了新的立法以預防外部干預。
因此香港需要引入新的國家安全罪行。例如有組織引導他人從事危害國家安全活動、在外國機構控制或指揮下從事危害國家安全活動等。這將有利於香港彌補長期以來在國家安全立法方面的不足，切實履行基本法賦予的責任。香港現時引入了類似的「外部干預危害國家安全罪」。由於這是新設立的罪行，學術界、專業團體、商會以及依賴外部聯絡的智庫都理所當然地提出了一些擔憂。
通過《維護國家安全條例草案》，時任行政長官李家超和政府實現了前任無法完成的歷史使命。2019年3月19日下午6點53分將載入香港史冊。但成功立法後，還需要更多解釋和澄清以釋除外界疑慮，向公眾解釋《香港國安法》真正意義的工作，現在才正式開始。
美國共和、民主兩黨預計可於3月19日正式確認各自的總統候選人，這意味着選舉將進入兩黨直接對壘的新階段。雙方的選舉團隊都已制定好各自的政綱及選舉策略，以爭取更多游離選民支持。墮胎權便是兩黨選民的重點關注的議題之一。
回顧美國歷史，婦女墮胎在19世紀中葉時仍被社會普遍接受。當時，婦女可透過服用由助產員製作的藥物墮胎。直至1857年，美國醫學會（American MedicalAssociation）為加強對醫療服務及藥物的監管，游說當時參眾兩院的議員立法禁止婦女墮胎。有關的游說行動相當成功，在1860至1880年間，美國全國制定了超過40條反墮胎法例。直至1973年美國聯邦最高法院在羅訴韋德案（Roev.Wade）的判決中裁定孕婦選擇墮胎的自由受憲法隱私權保護前，墮胎在美國多州都是重刑罪（felony）。
1980年的總統選舉中，共和黨候選人列根為吸引福音派信徒（evangelists）的支持，選擇加強與立場極保守的基督教右派（Christianright）合作，最終亦藉此贏得選舉。列根執政時期，共和黨在墮胎議題上的立場漸趨保守，破壞了兩黨的原有共識，加劇了社會撕裂並為日後無止境的爭吵埋下導火線。
2022年6月，保守派大法官佔多數的美國最高法院宣布推翻羅訴韋德案的判決。雖然這被共和黨強硬派議員視為里程碑式的重大勝利，但由於低估了黨內支持合法墮胎權的女性佔比，導致共和黨未能如預期般在2022年中期選舉奪回參議院控制權。
拜登或希望吸引這些女性選民的支持，選擇墮胎議題作為政綱的核心之一，並在3月7日發表的國情咨文中承諾將恢復墮胎權保障。除了墮胎保障外，如何解決非法移民數量增加、藥物濫用個案上升及社會貧富懸殊加劇等社會問題將是拜登尋求連任的路上不得不思考的問題。下期將展開詳述。
Can abortion rights protection help Biden get re-elected?
The Republican and Democratic parties in the United States are expected to formally confirm their respective presidential candidates on March 19, signaling the election will enter a new phase of direct confrontation between the two parties. Both camps have developed their own policy platforms and election strategies to attract more swing voters. Abortion rights is one of the key issues of concern for voters of both parties.
Looking back at US history, abortion was still widely accepted by society in the mid-19th century. At that time, women could have abortions by taking medicinal herbs prepared by midwives. It was not until 1857 that the American Medical Association lobbied Congress to legislate against abortion in order to strengthen regulation over medical services and drugs. This lobbying effort was very successful - between 1860 and 1880, more than 40 anti-abortion laws were enacted across the United States. It was not until the 1973 Supreme Court ruling in Roe v. Wade that declared a woman's right to choose abortion as protected by the constitutional right to privacy that abortion became a felony in many US states.
In the 1980 presidential election, Republican candidate Ronald Reagan chose to strengthen cooperation with the ultra-conservative Christian right to attract evangelical supporters, and ultimately won the election with this support. During Reagan's presidency, the Republican Party's position on abortion gradually became more conservative, disrupting the previous bipartisan consensus and exacerbating social divisions, laying the groundwork for endless future debates.
In June 2022, the conservative-led Supreme Court overturned the Roe v. Wade ruling. While this was seen as a major victory by Republican hardliners, the party underestimated the proportion of women within its ranks who supported legal abortion rights, preventing Republicans from gaining the expected control of the Senate in the 2022 midterm elections.
Biden hopes to attract these women voters by making abortion rights one of the core planks of his policy platform. In his State of the Union address on March 7, he pledged to restore abortion rights protections. Issues like rising illegal immigration numbers, drug abuse cases and worsening social inequality will also be problems Biden must consider as he seeks re-election. Details will follow in the next issue.
「超級星期二」是美國大選年的重要日子，多個州份會在2 月下旬至3月上旬的一個星期二同時舉行民主、共和兩黨的總統選舉初選以選出各自總統候選人。由於「超級星期二」的結果對後續選情影響巨大，因此，候選人當日的表現亦會引來各方關注。
3月5日是今次大選的「超級星期二」，當日共有15 個州及一個海外屬地舉行初選，數以萬計的選民參與投票。投票結果一如外界預期，前總統特朗普及現任總統拜登分別贏得14 及15 個州的初選，基本可以確定兩人會取得足夠黨代表票出線。
但這次「超級星期二」的初選結果與往屆相比，似乎欠缺民意基礎。《衛報》（The Guardian ）早前一篇文章指出，是次初選的投票率相當低。比方說，在民主黨傳統票倉加州的2200 萬名選民中，只有8% 選民在截止前寄回他們的郵寄選票。文章分析，低投票率的原因除了候選人數目太少，缺乏競爭外，亦與選民對特朗普及拜登的不滿有關。
拜登政府在以巴衝突中的親以色列立場引來黨內反戰派選民不滿，導致多個州出現大量「逆反票」（protest vote）；而共和黨內部的溫和選民則對特朗普的極右翼主張及醜聞纏身的形象不滿，如何確保這些選票能在11 月大選時流向特朗普，將是其競選團隊要重點處理的問題。
除此之外，兩黨支持者都憂慮特拜二人的年齡、健康及精神狀况能否勝任總統職務。拜登的年齡問題一直備受關注，77 歲的特朗普亦不遑多讓。路透社早前透過問卷訪問1250 名人士，當中48% 受訪者認為特朗普年紀太大，並不適合擔任公職。
是次初選結果暴露美國民眾對老人政治失去信心，社會撕裂亦漸漸動搖美國制度基礎，如何修復，將是下屆總統的一大挑戰。
Are US Primaries No Longer Based on Public Opinion?
"Super Tuesday" is an important day during the US election year when multiple states hold their Democratic and Republican presidential primary elections simultaneously to select their respective presidential candidates. The results of Super Tuesday have a significant impact on the subsequent election, attracting attention from various parties due to the candidates' performance on that day.
March 5th was this election's "Super Tuesday," with a total of 15 states and one overseas territory holding their primaries. Tens of thousands of voters participated in the voting. As expected, former President Trump and current President Biden won the primaries in 14 and 15 states, respectively, essentially securing enough party delegates to move forward.
However, compared to previous years, the primary results of this Super Tuesday seem to lack a solid foundation of public opinion. An article in The Guardian pointed out that the voter turnout for this primary was relatively low. For example, in California, a traditional stronghold for the Democratic Party with 22 million voters, only 8% of voters returned their mail-in ballots before the deadline. The article analyzed that the low turnout can be attributed to the small number of candidates and lack of competition, as well as voter dissatisfaction with both Trump and Biden.
The Biden administration's pro-Israel stance during the Israel-Palestine conflict has drawn criticism from anti-war voters within the Democratic Party, leading to a significant number of protest votes in several states. On the other hand, moderate Republican voters are dissatisfied with Trump's far-right positions and his involvement in scandals. Ensuring that these voters will support Trump in the November election will be a key challenge for his campaign team.
Additionally, supporters of both parties are concerned about the age, health, and mental condition of Biden and Trump and whether they are capable of fulfilling the duties of the presidency. Biden's age has been a topic of ongoing scrutiny, and Trump, at 77 years old, is also not far behind. In a Reuters poll of 1,250 individuals, 48% of respondents believed that Trump is too old and not suitable for public office.
The results of these primaries have exposed a loss of confidence in elderly politicians among the American people, and societal divisions are gradually shaking the foundation of the US system. Repairing these issues will be a major challenge for the next president.
上篇提及，香港每年舉辦不少大型國際盛事，當中很多是商務會議及大型展覽，反映香港並非缺乏舉辦大型盛事的能力和吸引力，社會不必多慮。
會展以外，香港仍常有舉辦文化、藝術或體育盛事。比方說，由香港藝術節協會舉辦的香港藝術節就是文藝界的年度盛事。自1973 年舉辦以來，藝術節每年都會在2 月、3 月期間為市民呈獻約150 場演出及逾250 場「加料」節目，題材跨越古典和現代音樂、中樂、歌劇、戲曲、戲劇及舞蹈等多個領域。今年更邀得享譽國際的波羅的海愛樂樂團、內地頂尖的上海崑劇團及京劇名家于魁智所帶領的中國國家京劇院一團來港演出，相信會廣受樂迷歡迎，帶動更多旅客來港欣賞演出。
隨着特區政府逐步落實體育運動普及化、精英化、盛事化、專業化及產業化「五化」的目標，愈來愈多體壇盛事在香港舉行。剛於周日（3 月10 日）結束的LIV Golf 職業高爾夫球巡迴賽就是近年在香港舉辦、規格最高的高球界賽事。香港高爾夫球會會長郭永亮向傳媒透露，過去3 日的賽事一共吸引約30個國家及地區的遊客專程來港觀賽，為本地酒店及餐飲業打了一支強心針。據悉，是次比賽單稅款就為港府帶來至少3000 萬港元的收入，經濟效益相當巨大。
除此之外，香港在2024 年上半年還會舉辦UCI 國家盃場地單車賽、三項鐵人世界盃及香港國際桌球明星挑戰賽等共10 項大型體育賽事， 相信有利於打造香港國際體育盛世之都的品牌。
雖然早前美斯事故鬧得沸沸揚揚，但並不影響特區政府打造盛事經濟的決心。期望盛事陸續有來，締造香港盛市。
Large-scale Events Beyond Conferences and Exhibitions
In the previous article, it was mentioned that Hong Kong hosts numerous large-scale international events every year, many of which are business conferences and major exhibitions, indicating that Hong Kong has the capability and attractiveness to host such events, and there is no need for excessive concern in society.
Apart from exhibitions, Hong Kong also frequently hosts cultural, artistic, and sports events. For example, the Hong Kong Arts Festival organized by the Hong Kong Arts Festival Society is an annual highlight in the arts scene. Since its establishment in 1973, the festival presents around 150 performances and over 250 "PLUS" events each year during February and March, covering various fields including classical and contemporary music, Chinese music, opera, Chinese traditional theatre, drama, and dance. This year, the festival has invited internationally renowned orchestras like the Baltic Sea Philharmonic, top-notch Shanghai Kunqu Opera Troupe from mainland China, and the China National Peking Opera Company led by renowned Peking opera artist Yu Kuizhi to perform in Hong Kong. It is believed that these performances will be well-received by music enthusiasts and attract more visitors to Hong Kong.
With the gradual implementation of the Hong Kong SAR Government's goal of promoting popularization, excellence, eventization, professionalism, and industrialization of sports, more and more major sporting events are being held in Hong Kong. The recently concluded LIV Golf professional golf tour on Sunday, March 10, is the highest-profile golf event held in Hong Kong in recent years. Kenneth Kuo, the President of the Hong Kong Golf Club, revealed to the media that the event attracted visitors from approximately 30 countries and regions who specifically came to Hong Kong to watch the tournament, providing a boost to the local hotel and catering industry. It is reported that the event alone generated at least HK$30 million in tax revenue for the Hong Kong government, indicating significant economic benefits.
In addition, Hong Kong will also host 10 major sports events in the first half of 2024, including the UCI National Cup Track Cycling, Triathlon World Cup, and Hong Kong International Table Tennis All-Stars Challenge, among others. It is believed that these events will contribute to establishing Hong Kong as a hub for international sports events.
Despite the recent controversy surrounding the Meas incident, it does not affect the determination of the Hong Kong SAR Government to develop the event-driven economy. It is expected that more events will come, creating a thriving market in Hong Kong.
承接上文，社會上有聲音指，Taylor Swift不在香港舉辦世界巡迴演唱會，反映香港沒有足夠吸引力讓國際盛事落戶。我認為上述憂慮低估了香港這個亞洲國際之都的影響力。
事實上，香港每年所舉辦的國際盛事多不勝數，這些活動大多集中於會議展覽及獎勵旅遊（MICE）領域，普羅市民或者較少留意。撇除早前宣布延期的 DiorFall2024時裝展，單是今年上半年，香港就計劃舉辦86場體育賽事、大型展覽、高峰會議等不同類型的盛事。
香港地理位置優越，加上交通方便，會展服務業相當發達，每年都會舉行數以百計的會議展覽。例如每年3月和9月舉辦的香港國際珠寶展及香港珠寶首飾展覽會，都是亞洲區罕見的大型珠寶展覽。後者更是全球最大型的珠寶商貿展覽，今年設有約40個主題攤位，預計吸引超過3000個參展商來港。
除此之外，貿易發展局舉辦的香港玩具展亦是會展業的年度盛事之一。香港的玩具出口商現時主要為海外玩具品牌提供外判生產業務，向來以供應優質玩具見稱。得益於此，香港玩具展每年都吸引上千個參展商自全球各地慕名而來，尋找商機，是亞洲最大規模的玩具展之一。
香港今年亦爭取到多個具影響力的國際級盛事，包括首度來港舉辦的國際級高爾夫球賽LIV Golf以及國際潮流盛事 ComplexCon。
LIVGolf獲沙特阿拉伯主權財富基金贊助，總獎金折合約1.95億港元，是香港史上最高獎金的大賽之一。據報道，過去一周，主辦單位、球手、他們親友以及工作人員等，已預訂超過600間酒店房間，預計對本港酒店餐飲、旅遊業帶來相當高的經濟效益。ComplexCon更是首次在美國以外的地區舉辦，集結超過200名HipHop歌手、潮流藝術家及創作者，預計可吸引超過3萬名旅客來港。
由此可見，香港對盛事主辦商仍然具有相當吸引力，香港亦有能力搞好大型盛事，市民毋須妄自菲薄。
Hong Kong Has Abundant Major Events
Following the previous article, some voices argued that Taylor Swift not holding her world tour concert in Hong Kong reflected the city's insufficient appeal to host international events. I think this concern underestimates Hong Kong's influence as an Asian global city.
In fact, Hong Kong hosts countless international events every year, mostly concentrated in meetings, incentives, conferences and exhibitions (MICE) sectors, which may receive less attention from the general public. Apart from the previously postponed DiorFall2024 fashion show, just in the first half of this year, Hong Kong has planned 86 sporting events, major exhibitions and conferences of various types.
With its geographical advantage and convenient transportation, Hong Kong's exhibition services industry is highly developed, hosting hundreds of conferences and exhibitions annually. For example, the Hong Kong International Jewellery Show in March and September, and the Hong Kong Jewellery and Jade Show are among Asia's largest jewellery exhibitions. The latter is also the world's largest jewellery trade fair, with around 40 thematic pavilions this year, expected to attract over 3,000 exhibitors.
In addition, Hong Kong Toy Fair organized by the Trade Development Council, is also a major annual event in the exhibition industry. Hong Kong toy exporters currently mainly provide OEM production services to overseas toy brands, known for quality toys. Thanks to this, the Toy Fair attracts thousands of exhibitors from around the world each year seeking business opportunities, being one of the largest toy exhibitions in Asia.
This year Hong Kong has also succeeded in attracting many influential international events, including the debut LIVGolf international elite golf tournament and the international trend event ComplexCon.
Hosted for the first time in a non-US location, ComplexCon is expected to attract over 30,000 visitors to the city, featuring more than 200 hip hop artists, fashion icons and creators.
This shows event organizers still view Hong Kong as highly appealing. The city is capable of hosting large-scale events well. Local residents need not underestimate themselves.
財政司司長陳茂波剛於2月28日宣讀今年度《財政預算案》，提到「預計2023/24年度綜合赤字為1016億元」（第205段），然而，若計及發債725億元，實際綜合赤字應該有1741億元之鉅。
在這樣嚴峻的財政狀況下，特區政府的投資策略顯得特別重要，高效率高回報的投資策略，可改善特區政府的財政狀況。我認為，特區政府是時候積極檢討及改善其一貫投資策略。
特區政府近年設立大量不同用途的基金，主要以種子基金的模式運作，即是不動用本金，靠投資回報所得，來支持該基金的特定用途。這個模式無可厚非，但特區政府就「香港特別行政區政府獎學基金」（下稱「政府獎學基金」）提供的資料，便顯示特區政府就這類種子基金的投資策略有很多問題。
特區政府於2008年設立10億元的「政府獎學基金」，最初是向本港的傑出學生提供「卓越表現獎學金」。期後在2011年、2012年、2013年及2018年，分別獲得四次注資，獎學金的範疇也擴展至「才藝發展獎學金」、「外展體驗獎」、「展毅表現獎」等等。至於今次的注資主角「一帶一路獎學金」，則是於2016年新增的範疇，屬於「特定地區獎學金」旗下。
「政府獎學基金」以種子基金模式運作，即是在不動用本金的原則下，以投資回報來支付各個獎學金項目。補充文件指截至2024年1月下旬，「政府獎學基金」的本金為30億7000萬元，淨盈餘則有1億1000萬元。教育局認為這款項不足以支付未來的各項獎學金金額，於是要求第五度注資，並且要求10億元。
此外，當我查閱這五間投資管理公司的資料時，竟發現當中有四間是美國公司、一間是德國公司，卻沒有一間是香港「本地薑」，這點讓我相當不滿。眾所周知，在地緣政治及美西方資金撤出香港的情況下，本地基金經理經營困難，為甚麼特區政府不聘用本地基金經理？究竟是誰及以甚麼準則決定聘用哪些基金經理？是覺得外國的月亮特別圓？還是看不起「本地薑」？
最後，教育局指「政府獎學基金」的投資回報率以維持在4厘為目標，獲注資10億元後，預計每年可賺取的投資收入約4000萬元，扣除投資管理公司管理費等支出後，便可用作「一帶一路獎學金」新增名額的所需資金。然而，近年的實際回報率平均只是2厘，期間有年份是虧損的。環顧最新的投資市況，若購買特區政府的綠色債券，已可鎖定三年保底息率4.75厘。如果投資一些在港上市、風險低而回報高的公司，回報更高，這是普通市民也懂的投資常識。那麼，為甚麼還要把那麼細金額的本金，分拆給五間投資公司管理，付上高昂的管理費，換來再注資10億元的要求？還有，那筆本金當中，有多少是存於香港金融管理局賺取利息的？回報如何？
對於上述這些問題，教育局通通未能回答。不過，為免發出立法會議員不支持「一帶一路」的錯誤信息，會議當日我有舉手支持撥款。但是作為立法會議員，我必定會繼續跟進。
旅客的消費模式在疫後出現顯著改變，青睞着重體驗的沉浸式旅遊，購物消費則退而其次，過往以消費購物為主的香港旅遊業受到一定影響。有鑑於此，特區政府正推動發展文化、藝術及體育相結合的盛事經濟，希望藉此帶旺旅遊業，振興本地市道。
但坊間有意見認為，特區政府在爭取大型盛事來港舉辦方面，面對不少困難。有聲音指，美國樂壇天后Taylor Swift的時代巡迴演唱會（The Eras Tour）沒有選擇香港而將新加坡定作東南亞唯一目的地，或反映香港在主辦團體當中缺乏吸引力，導致天后決定「捨港取星」。
然而，上述的觀點相當錯誤。事實是，特區政府根本沒有邀請Taylor Swift來港舉辦演唱會。據傳媒報道， Taylor Swift團隊之所以答應新加坡政府將星城定為東南亞唯一一站，除因為對方斥至少200萬至300萬美元巨資補貼外，主要是看中新加坡國家體育場這一個可容納5.5萬名觀眾的戶外表演場地。
香港現時未有一個戶外表演場地能夠媲美新加坡國家體育場，加上特區政府重視審慎理財，不會仿效新加坡花費大量金錢補貼。雖然特區政府素有如「M」品牌計劃及「文化藝術盛事基金」等措施支援各項文化藝術及體育盛事在香港舉行，但我認為香港過往一直由市場驅動，牽頭籌辦盛事活動的方針正確，特區政府毋須將所有工作「攬上身」。再者，考慮到庫房已連續5年「見紅」，耗費數以千萬計公帑資助歌星舉行演唱會的做法更需三思。
Taylor Swift不來舉辦演唱會，固然可惜，但這並不意味香港缺乏舉辦大型盛事的能力。相反，其實每年也有不同的國際盛事在港舉辦，下期將展開詳述。
A Concert is Not Necessary for Event-driven Economy
The consumption patterns of visitors have undergone significant changes post-pandemic, with an increasing preference for immersive experience-focused tourism over shopping. This has impacted Hong Kong's tourism industry which previously relied heavily on shopping consumption. In view of this, the HKSAR government is promoting the development of an event-driven economy integrating culture, arts and sports, hoping to boost tourism and stimulate the local market through this.
However, some opinions believe the HKSAR government faces many difficulties in attracting large-scale events to Hong Kong. Some commented that pop diva Taylor Swift's The Eras Tour not choosing Hong Kong and only making Singapore the sole Southeast Asian destination could reflect Hong Kong's lack of attractiveness among event organizers, leading to her decision to "ditch Hong Kong for Singapore".
However, the above views are quite mistaken. In fact, the HKSAR government had not invited Taylor Swift to hold a concert in Hong Kong. According to media reports, Taylor Swift's camp agreed to make Singapore the only Southeast Asian stop mainly because the local government invested at least $2-3 million in subsidies, and also saw the potential of the National Stadium which can accommodate 55,000 audience for outdoor performances.
Currently Hong Kong does not have an outdoor venue that can match the National Stadium in Singapore. Considering the HKSAR government's prudent fiscal stance, it would not follow Singapore's example of spending huge sums subsidizing events. While the government has support measures like the "M+ Programme" and "Arts and Culture Events Fund" to support cultural, arts and sports events in Hong Kong, I believe Hong Kong's past market-driven approach of facilitating events is correct, and the government need not take on all responsibilities. Moreover, it's prudent not to lavishly subsidize star concerts with tens of millions of public funding, given five consecutive annual deficits.
Taylor Swift not holding a concert here is understandably regrettable, but it does not mean Hong Kong lacks ability to host major events. In fact, different international events are held in Hong Kong every year, which will be detailed in the next article.
旅遊業、貿易及物流業、金融服務業、工商業支援和專業服務業並列香港經濟的四大支柱產業，一直是香港經濟增長的主要原動力之一。疫情前的2018年，旅遊業佔本地生產總值約4%，僱用約25 萬人，佔整體就業人口約6%。由於旅遊業入行條件相對寬鬆，能為社會創造大量就業職位，特區政府一直致力推動旅遊業的發展。
但新冠疫情對旅遊業界造成了重大打擊。旅遊發展局（旅發局）資料顯示，旅遊業在2021 年佔本地生產總值跌至0.1%，就業人數亦減至只有約兩萬。雖然香港已於去年2 月全面恢復與其他地方的正常人員往來，但訪港旅客人數尚未恢復至疫情前的水平。旅發局上月公布的最新數據顯示，2023 年全年初步訪港旅客人次約有3400 萬。與疫情前相比，旅客人次只恢復至2017 至2018 年度平均數的55%。
同時，愈來愈多港人選擇北上消費，進一步窒礙本地消費市道的復蘇。《星島日報》早前一篇文章指出，港人北上的熱潮帶旺了深圳的消費市道。文章引用深圳市統計局數據指，2023 年深圳社會消費品零售總額超過一萬億元人民幣，與去年同期相比，增長7.8%。其中，商品零售增長7%，餐飲收入增長15.2%，增幅相當驚人。
訪港旅客人數減少加上消費外流，導致香港經濟復蘇遜於預期。據悉，現時政府正積極「諗計」吸引遊客來港，以刺激消費、帶旺市道。財政司長昨日發表的《財政預算案》提出透過推動舉辦不同範疇的盛事活動和主題式年會，打造香港作為營商及旅遊首選目的地的品牌。我相當支持有關做法。
香港向來是全球公認最佳的會展以及商務旅遊城市之一，2020 年更獲Smart Travel Asia Awards 評選為亞洲「最佳會議城市」。我認為特區政府應進一步鞏固和提升香港作為國際會展樞紐的地位，以吸引商務旅客來港，帶動其他行業發展，為本地經濟注入活力。
Tourism Past, Present and Future in Hong Kong
Tourism, trade and logistics, financial services, and professional and commercial services have long been the four main pillars of Hong Kong's economy, and one of the primary drivers of economic growth. In 2018 before the pandemic, tourism accounted for approximately 4% of GDP and employed around 250,000 people, accounting for about 6% of the total workforce. As the entry requirements for the tourism industry are relatively loose, it has continuously created a large number of jobs for society. The HKSAR government has been committed to promoting the development of the tourism industry.
However, the COVID-19 epidemic has dealt a major blow to the tourism industry. Data from the Hong Kong Tourism Board (HKTB) showed that in 2021, tourism accounted for only 0.1% of GDP and employment fell to only about 20,000. Although Hong Kong fully resumed normal travel between other places last February, the number of visitors has yet to return to pre-epidemic levels. The latest data released by HKTB last month showed that the estimated annual visitor arrivals in 2023 were about 34 million. Compared to pre-epidemic, visitor arrivals only recovered to 55% of the average from 2017 to 2018.
At the same time, increasingly many Hong Kong people choose to spend northward, further hampering the recovery of the local consumption market. An earlier article in Sing Tao Daily pointed out that the boom in Hong Kong people traveling north has driven up consumption in Shenzhen. The article cited data from the Shenzhen Municipal Statistics Bureau that Shenzhen's total retail sales of consumer goods exceeded 1 trillion yuan in 2023, up 7.8% year-on-year. Among them, commodity retail sales grew 7% and catering revenue grew 15.2%, an extremely impressive increase.
The decline in visiting tourists coupled with consumption outflows has led to Hong Kong's economic recovery lagging expectations. It is understood that the government is currently actively "thinking of plans" to attract tourists to boost consumption and revitalize the market. Yesterday's Budget Speech by the Financial Secretary proposed promoting different types of events and thematic annual meetings to build Hong Kong's brand as a preferred destination for business and tourism. I fully support such measures.
Hong Kong has long been recognized as one of the best convention and business tourism cities globally, and was voted Asia's "Best Meeting City" by Smart Travel Asia Awards in 2020. I believe the HKSAR government should further consolidate and enhance Hong Kong's status as an international convention hub to attract business travelers and drive the development of other industries, injecting vitality into the local economy.