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Can Beijing and Big Business Trump-proof Hong Kong / 北京和大型企業可保護香港免受特朗普影響嗎?
文章
2024 年 11 月 22 日
US president-elect Donald Trump’s decisive victory over Vice-President Kamala Harris, the Republican Party’s control of Congress and strong backing from his appointees on the US Supreme Court will make him the most powerful US president in recent history.
He is coming into office with the unreserved support of the world’s richest man, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index – tech mogul Elon Musk – who has just been named to lead a new department of efficiency. The massive power Trump now wields has sent shock waves across the US and around the world.
Although Beijing took care not to drop any hint of its preference, a triumphant Trump return and all that it means for the future of Sino-US relations appeared to have been within China’s calculations.
On November 8, Xia Baolong, the director of the Hong and Macau Affairs Office, convened a meeting with 29 Hong Kong business and industrial leaders, in addition to Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu and other senior officials, in Shenzhen, Guangdong province. The timing seems to have been carefully chosen to take stock of the US election results.
Trump unleashed more tremors by announcing the appointment of a motley crew of hardliners and acolytes to important cabinet and ambassadorial positions. When news broke that Trump was mulling the appointment of prominent China hawks, Senator Marco Rubio and Representative Michael Waltz, to the positions of secretary of state and national security adviser respectively, the Hang Seng Index plunged 580 points.
Rubio sponsored the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019. This landmark statute requires US government departments to assess Hong Kong’s political developments as a precondition for continuing the city’s unique status under US law. The act laid the groundwork for stripping Hong Kong of special treatment in the US and imposing sanctions on the city.
After Beijing enacted a law to safeguard national security in Hong Kong in June 2020, then-president Trump swiftly signed the Hong Kong Autonomy Act into law in July 2020 and slapped sanctions on Hong Kong almost a month afterwards. Trump’s skewed vision of Hong Kong posing a national security threat, shared by many in Congress, including Rubio, can only fill Hong Kong with grim forebodings.
At the meeting in Shenzhen on November 8, Xia said that Hong Kong is undergoing a profound change, both internally and externally. His remarks were a clear signal of Beijing’s deep concerns about the impact of the Trump administration on China, not least Hong Kong, a small but highly externally oriented economy which depends heavily on trade and the free flow of capital, information and people.
Xia sent pointed messages to both government officials and business representatives at the meeting. He warned government officials that “Hong Kong cannot rely solely on its traditional advantages by relying on just one trick”.
He urged Hong Kong to enhance its tourism appeal by taking advantage of its beautiful coastline, enchanting islands and cultural assets. Xia also encouraged government officials to invest more in science and technology.
Xia reportedly urged business leaders not to be “bystanders”, but active participants in the government’s programmes to bolster Hong Kong’s development as a premier aviation hub, seaport and trading port.
Beijing has come to Hong Kong’s rescue many times, sending tourists, capital and good-quality companies for listing in Hong Kong’s stock market. China has helped Hong Kong weather many storms.
Despite the importance President Xi Jinping has attached to Hong Kong’s success under “one country, two systems”, can a reinforced partnership between the central government, Hong Kong and big business adequately keep the city Trump-proof?
Even patriotic businessmen must do tough number-crunching before they deploy their capital to support government projects and quite rightly so. If they end up depleting their capital as the result of investing recklessly in financially non-viable projects, they would not be doing the nation, including Hong Kong, any good.
Luckily, after years of work on the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Innovation and Technology Cooperation Zone, the end of the tunnel is finally in sight. The first batch of development at the jointly run technology park at the Lok Ma Chau Loop is expected to be completed in phases starting later this year.
The park will enable Hong Kong to build centres of excellence in research and development (R&D), combining the abundant technological resources of Shenzhen with Hong Kong’s global financial and business expertise.
Another bright spot is the progress made in leapfrogging biomedical research. The government has launched a new scheme for local registration of drugs and medical devices. The Health Bureau is working with Shenzhen to set up a Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area clinical trial collaboration platform to expedite clinical trials and expand R&D networks. Hong Kong companies will be able to access bio-samples from other places that are part of the Greater Bay Area development zone.
The infrastructure to jump-start technological development is finally taking shape. Despite growing more sluggish than before, Hong Kong does not lack capital, talent or global connectivity.
The only trouble with the new Trump administration is that there are too many unknowns. How will Elon Musk function in the Trump administration? Will he be a full-time efficiency tsar or continue to wear many hats? Who would have the most influence on Trump – anti-China, anti-free trade hardliners or pragmatic entrepreneurs?
As the line-up of key officials in Trump’s administration takes shape, only time will tell what his real agenda is. In the meantime, like other parts of the world, Hong Kong must Trump-proof itself by staying calm and strong.
中譯本 : 北京和大型企業可保護香港免受特朗普影響嗎?
美國當選總統唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)決定性地擊敗副總統哈里斯.賀錦麗(Kamala Harris),共和黨控制了國會,並得到美國最高法院大法官的強力支持,使他成為近代最有權力的美國總統。
據彭博億萬富翁指數顯示,他將在上任時獲得世界上最富有的人——科技大亨伊隆·馬斯克(Elon Musk)的全力支持,馬斯克剛被任命負責領導一個新的效率部門。特朗普現在所擁有的巨大權力在美國乃至全球引起了震撼。
雖然北京小心翼翼地沒有透露其偏好,但一個凱旋而歸的特朗普以及這一切對中美關係未來意味著的影響似乎已經在中國的考量之中。
11月8日,國務院港澳事務辦公室主任夏寶龍在廣東省深圳市召集了29名香港商界和工業界領袖、行政長官李家超和其他高級官員舉行了一次會議。這次會議的時間看來是精心選擇,總結美國選舉結果。
特朗普宣布任命一批強硬派和信徒擔任重要的內閣和大使職位,進一步震憾外界。有消息傳出特朗普正在考慮任命著名的中國鷹派參議員馬可·魯比奧和眾議員邁克爾·瓦爾茲分別擔任國務卿和國家安全顧問時,恆生指數下跌了580點。
魯比奧推動了2019年的《香港人權與民主法案》。這部具有里程碑意義的法律要求美國政府部門在繼續根據美國法律賦予該城市獨特地位的前提下,評估香港的政治發展。這部法案為剝奪香港在美國的特殊待遇以及對該市實施制裁奠定了基礎。
在北京於2020年6月實施了維護香港國家安全的法律後,當時的總統特朗普於2020年7月迅速簽署了《香港自治法案》,並在將近一個月後對香港實施了制裁。特朗普對香港構成國家安全威脅的扭曲看法得到了眾議院眾多人士的共鳴,包括魯比奧,這將不免使香港充滿陰霾。
在11月8日深圳的會議上,夏寶龍表示,香港正在經歷內外的深刻變化。他的言論清楚地表明了北京對特朗普政府對中國,尤其是對高度依賴貿易、資金、信息和人員自由流動的香港這樣一個小而高度外向型經濟體所帶來影響的深切擔憂。
夏在會議上向政府官員和商界代表發出了明確的訊息。他警告政府官員說,“香港不能僅僅依靠傳統優勢,僅僅依賴一招”。
他提及香港可通過利用其美麗的海岸線、迷人島嶼和文化資產來增強其旅遊吸引力。夏還鼓勵政府官員在科學技術方面進行更多投資。
據報導,夏敦促商界領袖不要成為“旁觀者”,而應成為政府計劃中支持香港發展成為一流航空樞紐、海港和貿易港口的積極參與者。
北京曾多次援助香港,派遣遊客、資本和優質企業在香港股市上市。中國幫助香港度過了許多風雨。
儘管習近平主席對“一國兩制”下香港成功的重要性給予了高度重視,但中央政府、香港和大型企業之間加強合作是否足以使這座城市免受特朗普的影響呢?
即使是愛國商人在支持政府項目之前也必須進行艱巨的經濟數據分析,這是非常正確的。假如他們因為在財政上不可行的項目上投資而最終耗盡了他們的資本,那對國家,包括香港,都不會有好處。
幸運的是,在長年致力於深港創新科技合作區之後,隧道的盡頭終於看到了曙光。預計將從今年底開始分階段完成在落馬洲環繞區共同運營的科技園區的首批開發工作。
這個園區將使香港能夠建立研發(研發)卓越中心,將深圳豐富的技術資源與香港的全球金融和商業專業知識相結合。
另一個亮點是在跨越生物醫學研究方面取得的進展。政府已推出了一項新計劃,用於本地藥物和醫療器械的註冊。醫務衞生局正與深圳合作建立廣東-香港-澳門大灣區臨床試驗合作平台,以加快臨床試驗進程並擴大研發網絡。香港企業將能夠獲得來自大灣區發展區域其他地方的生物樣本。
推動科技發展的基礎設施終於初具雛形。儘管增長速度比以往緩慢,但香港並不缺乏資本、人才或全球聯繫。
新的特朗普政府唯一的問題是有太多未知數。埃隆·馬斯克將如何在特朗普政府中發揮作用?他會成為全職效率專家,還是繼續身兼多職?誰將對特朗普產生最大影響 - 反華、反自由貿易的強硬派,還是務實的企業家?
隨著特朗普政府主要官員陣容的確定,只有時間才能揭示他真正的議程。與此同時,就像世界其他地區一樣,香港必須通過保持冷靜和堅強,來使自己免受特朗普的影響。
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